A Chinese invasion of Taiwan could halt production by the world’s largest advanced chipmaker, wiping out up to US$1 trillion per year from the global economy in the first few years, the top US intelligence official told a hearing on Capitol Hill on Thursday.
US Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines presented what she called a “general estimate” during testimony before the US Senate Armed Services Committee.
The advanced semiconductors produced by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電) are used in 90 percent of “almost every category of electronic device around the world,” she said.
Photo: AFP
If a Chinese invasion stopped TSMC from producing those chips, “it will have an enormous global financial impact that I think runs somewhere between US$600 billion to US$1 trillion on an annual basis for the first few years,” she said.
“It will also have an impact on [US] GDP if there was such an invasion of Taiwan and that [TSMC’s production] was blocked,” Haines said.
It would also have a large impact on China’s economy, she added.
To deal with that risk, TSMC is investing US$40 million to build two sophisticated wafer fabs in Arizona at Washington’s urging.
A fab using the 4-nanometer process is scheduled to begin mass production next year, and the other, using the more advanced 3-nanometer process, is slated to mass-produce chips starting in 2026.
Also at the hearing, Haines said that Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) is leaning toward unifying with Taiwan in a “peaceful” manner, but is also preparing possible military action to achieve that goal.
“I think we continue to assess that he [Xi] would prefer to achieve unification of Taiwan through peaceful means,” she said, citing US intelligence.
Regardless, Xi has directed the Chinese military to “provide him with a military option, essentially, to be able to take it without concern of [US] intervention,” which is expected to “have a meaningful impact on his capacity to do so,” Haines said.
Haines’ comments came after US Senator Rick Scott raised concerns about the possibility of China invading Taiwan, citing Xi’s remarks in the past year suggesting that he was preparing the Chinese population for a war against Taiwan.
Also at the hearing, US Defense Intelligence Agency Director Scott Berrier appeared to have greater concern than Haines about a possible invasion of Taiwan, saying that Xi’s rhetoric has been “picking up” after he assumed his third term as president.
Berrier provided a list of possible invasion dates ranging from 2025 to 2049.
“I think the bottom line is he’s told his military to be ready,” Berrier said.
Meanwhile, Haines said the relationship between the US and China has become “more challenging,” citing a speech made by Xi in March in which he blamed Washington for suppressing Beijing, reflecting his distrust of the US and his belief that Washington is seeking to contain his country.
In his March 6 speech, Xi accused the US of trying to isolate his country and hold back its development, and a US-led campaign of “containment and suppression” of China has “brought unprecedented, severe challenges.”
Despite Xi’s strong rhetoric, Haines said her agency’s intelligence suggests that China wants to preserve stability in a bid to avoid triggering additional technology restrictions or sanctions from the US.
A Chinese freighter that allegedly snapped an undersea cable linking Taiwan proper to Penghu County is suspected of being owned by a Chinese state-run company and had docked at the ports of Kaohsiung and Keelung for three months using different names. On Tuesday last week, the Togo-flagged freighter Hong Tai 58 (宏泰58號) and its Chinese crew were detained after the Taipei-Penghu No. 3 submarine cable was severed. When the Coast Guard Administration (CGA) first attempted to detain the ship on grounds of possible sabotage, its crew said the ship’s name was Hong Tai 168, although the Automatic Identification System (AIS)
An Akizuki-class destroyer last month made the first-ever solo transit of a Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force ship through the Taiwan Strait, Japanese government officials with knowledge of the matter said yesterday. The JS Akizuki carried out a north-to-south transit through the Taiwan Strait on Feb. 5 as it sailed to the South China Sea to participate in a joint exercise with US, Australian and Philippine forces that day. The Japanese destroyer JS Sazanami in September last year made the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force’s first-ever transit through the Taiwan Strait, but it was joined by vessels from New Zealand and Australia,
SECURITY: The purpose for giving Hong Kong and Macau residents more lenient paths to permanent residency no longer applies due to China’s policies, a source said The government is considering removing an optional path to citizenship for residents from Hong Kong and Macau, and lengthening the terms for permanent residence eligibility, a source said yesterday. In a bid to prevent the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) from infiltrating Taiwan through immigration from Hong Kong and Macau, the government could amend immigration laws for residents of the territories who currently receive preferential treatment, an official familiar with the matter speaking on condition of anonymity said. The move was part of “national security-related legislative reform,” they added. Under the amendments, arrivals from the Chinese territories would have to reside in Taiwan for
CRITICAL MOVE: TSMC’s plan to invest another US$100 billion in US chipmaking would boost Taiwan’s competitive edge in the global market, the premier said The government would ensure that the most advanced chipmaking technology stays in Taiwan while assisting Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電) in investing overseas, the Presidential Office said yesterday. The statement follows a joint announcement by the world’s largest contract chipmaker and US President Donald Trump on Monday that TSMC would invest an additional US$100 billion over the next four years to expand its semiconductor manufacturing operations in the US, which would include construction of three new chip fabrication plants, two advanced packaging facilities, and a research and development center. The government knew about the deal in advance and would assist, Presidential
RSS