Beijing is pursuing its plans to annex Taiwan on a “much faster timeline” under Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平), US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Monday, reiterating warnings of global economic disruption if Taiwan were to be taken over and semiconductor production disrupted.
The comments came as the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) met for its twice-a-decade congress, the most important meeting of its political cycle.
In a major speech opening the conclaves on Sunday, Xi made clear that his plans for Taiwan remain core to his plans of China’s “rejuvenation.”
Photo: AFP
In conversation with former US secretary of state Condoleezza Rice at Stanford University, Blinken said peace and stability between China and Taiwan had been successfully maintained for decades, but Beijing had changed its approach.
“Instead of sticking with the status quo that was established in a positive way, [Beijing has made] a fundamental decision that the status quo is no longer acceptable, and Beijing is determined to pursue reunification on a much faster timeline,” Blinken said.
“If peaceful means didn’t work then [Beijing] would employ coercive means, and possibly if coercive means don’t work, then maybe forceful means to achieve its objective. That is what is profoundly disrupting the status quo and creating tremendous tensions,” he said.
While Beijing has made it clear it intends to take Taiwan, the timeline for such a scenario varies greatly. Senior US and Taiwanese military figures have said the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) would have the capability within a few years, while analysts point to Xi’s goal of national rejuvenation by 2049 as a potential deadline.
“It is possible that Secretary Blinken is concerned about the pace and scope of China’s military modernization, which clearly is focused on Taiwan, but China’s military capability alone does not indicate intent to use force in the near term,” said Drew Thompson, an academic with the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy and a former US Department of State official.
“That said, Xi Jinping’s intent could change in an instant, whereas capability takes years to develop, as does building up Taiwan and US defenses against PLA power projection. The considerable time it takes to build defenses is a strong rationale for expressing a sense of urgency,” Thompson said.
China expert Bill Bishop said there was nothing in public documents or Xi’s speech to indicate an accelerated timeline.
“So is the US in possession of some intel that indicates a shift?” he wrote on Twitter.
Thompson said he did not see any indication in Blinken’s remarks that he was responding to “exquisite intelligence or an alternative assessment that differs from China analysts relying on open source indicators.”
The question on Taiwan was put to Blinken in the final minutes of an hour-long conversation, during which he warned that destabilization of the Taiwan Strait was of “profound concern to countries around the world.”
“The amount of commercial traffic that goes through the Straits every day and has an impact on economies around the world is enormous,” he said. “If that was to be disrupted as a result of a crisis, countries around the world would suffer.”
“If Taiwanese [semiconductor] production were disrupted as a result of the crisis, you would have an economic crisis around the world,” he said.
Speaking to reporters after the event, Blinken pointed to a global crisis beyond China, saying the Ukraine war had brought the “post Cold War-era to an end,” and technology is what would come to define competition between world powers.
“We are at an inflection point,” he said. “Technology will in many ways retool our economies. It will reform our militaries. It will reshape the lives of people across the planet. And so it’s profoundly a source of national strength.”
Tropical Storm Gaemi strengthened into a typhoon at 2pm yesterday, and could make landfall in Yilan County tomorrow, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said yesterday. The agency was scheduled to issue a sea warning at 11:30pm yesterday, and could issue a land warning later today. Gaemi was moving north-northwest at 4kph, carrying maximum sustained winds near its center of up to 118.8kph and gusts of 154.8kph. The circumference is forecast to reach eastern Taiwan tomorrow morning, with the center making landfall in Yilan County later that night before departing from the north coast, CWA weather forecaster Kuan Shin-ping (官欣平) said yesterday. Uncertainty remains and
SEA WARNING LIKELY: The storm, named Gaemi, could become a moderate typhoon on Wednesday or Thursday, with the Taipei City Government preparing for flooding A tropical depression east of the Philippines developed into a tropical storm named Gaemi at 2pm yesterday, and was moving toward eastern Taiwan, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said. Gaemi could begin to affect Taiwan proper on Tuesday, lasting until Friday, and could develop into a moderate typhoon on Wednesday or Thursday, it said. A sea warning for Gaemi could be issued as early as Tuesday morning, it added. Gaemi, the third tropical storm in the Pacific Ocean this typhoon season, is projected to begin moving northwest today, and be closest to Taiwan on Wednesday or Thursday, the agency said. Today, there would likely
DISRUPTIONS: The high-speed rail is to operate as normal, while several airlines either canceled flights or announced early departures or late arrivals Schools and offices in 15 cities and counties are to be closed today due to Typhoon Gaemi, local governments announced last night. The 15 are: Taipei, New Taipei City, Taoyuan, Tainan, Keelung, Hsinchu and Kaohsiung, as well as Yilan, Hualien, Hsinchu, Miaoli, Chiayi, Pingtung, Penghu and Lienchiang counties. People should brace for torrential rainfall brought by the storm, with its center forecast to make landfall on the east coast between tonight and tomorrow morning, the Central Weather Administration (CWA) said. The agency issued a sea warning for the typhoon at 11:30pm on Monday, followed by a land warning at 11:30am yesterday. As of
CASUALTY: A 70-year-old woman was killed by a falling tree in Kaohsiung as the premier warned all government agencies to remain on high alert for the next 24 hours Schools and offices nationwide are to be closed for a second day today as Typhoon Gaemi crosses over the nation, bringing torrential rain and whipping winds. Gaemi was forecast to make landfall late last night. From Tuesday night, its outer band brought substantial rainfall and strong winds to the nation. As of 6:15pm last night, the typhoon’s center was 20km southeast of Hualien County, Central Weather Administration (CWA) data showed. It was moving at 19kph and had a radius of 250km. As of 3pm yesterday, one woman had died, while 58 people were injured, the Central Emergency Operation Center said. The 70-year-old