Chinese academics have reportedly been instructed to evaluate the possibility of unifying with Taiwan by force, as the war in Ukraine has caused Beijing to bring the Taiwan question to the fore of its agenda, a national security official said on Sunday.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is moving ahead on its “overall strategy for resolving the Taiwan issue in the new era,” which centers on peaceful methods such as legal or other action, the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
However, it is also studying the possibility of using force, including lessons to be learned from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the potential effects of sanctions, they said.
Photo: Reuters
The CCP is likely to use violent and nonviolent methods in pursuit of the least costly resolution, the official said.
If Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) chooses to imitate Russia and pursue a military solution, it would first try to create the most beneficial environment possible, they said.
That might entail elaborating on its “one China” principle, urging countries not to interfere, sowing discord among Taiwanese, guarding against potential sanctions and forming a plan for reconstruction after invasion, they added.
Photo courtesy of the Changhua County Government via CNA
There are three main ways the conflict in Ukraine could play out, each with a different effect on Taiwan, the official said.
In the first scenario, Russia wins the war and Russian President Vladimir Putin gets everything he wants, including the surrender of Kyiv and its vow not to join NATO, they said, adding that only under this scenario would Putin end the war.
This scenario, in which military action by an authoritarian state proves successful, would be the worst for Taiwan, as it would embolden Xi to launch his own conflict, the official said.
In the second scenario, the war continues for longer than two months, dragging Russia further toward economic collapse, although Putin would be unable to retreat for fear of the political repercussions, the official said.
Meanwhile, the refugee crisis in Europe and inflation in the US would worsen, potentially affecting the US midterm elections, they said.
Facing mounting challenges, these nations would request assistance from China, thereby enabling Beijing to exert greater influence internationally and pressure Western nations into accepting its interpretation of the “one China” principle and other concessions, the official said.
The last scenario would involve a successful resistance from Ukraine with international support that would force Putin from power, the official said.
This would be encouraging for Taiwan, which could learn from Ukraine how to defend itself and show China the potential consequences of starting a military conflict, they said.
However, each of these scenarios is variable, the official said.
Beijing could decide that peaceful unification is impossible and decide to attack before Taiwan completes its defense preparations, they said, adding that there is always the chance a dictator could externalize domestic problems.
INSURRECTION: The NSB said it found evidence the CCP was seeking snipers in Taiwan to target members of the military and foreign organizations in the event of an invasion The number of Chinese spies prosecuted in Taiwan has grown threefold over a four-year period, the National Security Bureau (NSB) said in a report released yesterday. In 2021 and 2022, 16 and 10 spies were prosecuted respectively, but that number grew to 64 last year, it said, adding that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) was working with gangs in Taiwan to develop a network of armed spies. Spies in Taiwan have on behalf of the CCP used a variety of channels and methods to infiltrate all sectors of the country, and recruited Taiwanese to cooperate in developing organizations and obtaining sensitive information
Seven hundred and sixty-four foreigners were arrested last year for acting as money mules for criminals, with many entering Taiwan on a tourist visa for all-expenses-paid trips, the Criminal Investigation Bureau (CIB) said on Saturday. Although from Jan. 1 to Dec. 26 last year, 26,478 people were arrested for working as money mules, the bureau said it was particularly concerned about those entering the country as tourists or migrant workers who help criminals and scammers pick up or transfer illegally obtained money. In a report, officials divided the money mules into two groups, the first of which are foreigners, mainly from Malaysia
SILICON VALLEY HUB: The office would showcase Taiwan’s strengths in semiconductors and artificial intelligence, and help Taiwanese start-ups connect with global opportunities Taiwan has established an office in Palo Alto, one of the principal cities of Silicon Valley in California, aimed at helping Taiwanese technology start-ups gain global visibility, the National Development Council said yesterday. The “Startup Island Taiwan Silicon Valley hub” at No. 299 California Avenue is focused on “supporting start-ups and innovators by providing professional consulting, co-working spaces, and community platforms,” the council said in a post on its Web site. The office is the second overseas start-up hub established by the council, after a similar site was set up in Tokyo in September last year. Representatives from Taiwanese start-ups, local businesses and
‘DETERRENT’: US national security adviser-designate Mike Waltz said that he wants to speed up deliveries of weapons purchased by Taiwan to deter threats from China US president-elect Donald Trump’s nominee for US secretary of defense, Pete Hegseth, affirmed his commitment to peace in the Taiwan Strait during his confirmation hearing in Washington on Tuesday. Hegseth called China “the most comprehensive and serious challenge to US national security” and said that he would aim to limit Beijing’s expansion in the Indo-Pacific region, Voice of America reported. He would also adhere to long-standing policies to prevent miscalculations, Hegseth added. The US Senate Armed Services Committee hearing was the first for a nominee of Trump’s incoming Cabinet, and questions mostly focused on whether he was fit for the
RSS