CIA Director William Burns on Tuesday said that Russia’s military struggles in Ukraine and the force of Western sanctions had “unsettled” China, but warned that Washington should not underestimate Beijing’s determination to force unification with Taiwan.
Burns made the assessment at an annual US House of Representatives Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence hearing on worldwide threats, which was also attended by several other intelligence chiefs.
While “the partnership between Russia and China has strengthened since 2019, [Chinese] President Xi [Jinping, 習近平] and the Chinese leadership are a little bit unsettled by what they’re seeing in Ukraine,” Burns told the committee.
Photo: AFP
China did not anticipate the difficulties that the Russians were going to run into in Ukraine, and is concerned by the “reputational damage” coming from its close association with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Burns said.
Beijing is also worried about the conflict’s effects on the global economy, coming at a time when China’s annual growth has slowed, as well as the way it has driven Europeans and Americans closer together, he said.
Despite these concerns, “I would not underestimate President Xi and the Chinese leadership’s determination with regard to Taiwan,” although the conflict might change the “Chinese calculus” on the issue, Burns said.
US Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines said that the Western response, in terms of its unity and the impact of the sanctions, demonstrates to China “the seriousness with which we would approach an infringement on Taiwan.”
During the hearing, several lawmakers asked whether Russia’s invasion of Ukraine would embolden China to launch an attack on Taiwan, and what the US could do to prevent it.
US Defense Intelligence Agency Director Scott Berrier said he believed that Taiwan and Ukraine are “two different things completely,” not least because of the strength of the US “deterrence posture” in the Pacific.
Haines, whose agency publishes the US intelligence community’s annual threat assessment report, said that China remains an “unparalleled priority,” while Russia, Iran and North Korea also represent pressing threats to US national interests.
China, in particular, excels at “bringing together a coordinated, whole-of-government approach” to demonstrate its strength and pressure its neighbors into accepting its positions, including its claims of sovereignty over Taiwan, she said.
“China would prefer coerced unification that avoids armed conflict, and it has been stepping up diplomatic, economic and military pressure on [Taiwan] for years to isolate it and weaken its confidence in its democratically elected leaders,” Haines said.
“At the same time, Beijing is preparing to use military force if it decides this is necessary,” she added.
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