China is unlikely to attain the military capability to engage in an all-out conflict with Taiwan within the decade, but it might initiate “gray zone” conflicts to force negotiations, an expert said yesterday.
Chi Yue-yi (亓樂義), an expert on China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA), made the comment at a conference in Taipei held by the National Policy Foundation, a think tank affiliated with the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT).
While the capability to mount a full-scale invasion would elude China for 10 years at the least, there is an extremely high risk that Beijing would utilize limited warfare to gain political leverage, Chi said.
Photo: Aaron Tu, Taipei Times
The threat of limited conflict includes pressure-point warfare, perceptual warfare, intimidation and punitive expedition, he said.
The specific form this conflict would take would be determined by China’s progress in reforming the PLA, the internal and external environment, and the global geostrategic situation, he said.
In a document titled The Indo-Pacific Strategy, the US stated its commitment to maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait by working with partners inside and outside the region, Chi said.
This shows that the Taiwan issue has become an international concern and that a coalition of maritime powers against China is emerging under Washington’s aegis, he said.
Foiling the rise of such a coalition is likely to take precedence over Bejing’s other strategic goals, including its quest to unify with Taiwan, Chi wrote in a document that he presented at the conference.
Former KMT legislator Lin Yu-fang (林郁方), the convener of the foundation’s national security division, said Taiwanese and Chinese customs officials estimate that bilateral trade is worth US$273 billion and US$328.3 billion respectively.
The high degree of economic integration and political hostility between the two sides is a combination that has no precedent, Lin said, adding that the “status quo” is probably unsustainable.
President Tsai Ing-wen’s (蔡英文) trade policy regarding agricultural imports from the US and Japan is motivated not by economic concerns, but a desire to placate potential allies amid worsening relations with China, he said.
Tan Chih-lung (淡志隆), former head of Taiwan’s military delegation to the US, said that the PLA’s ability to cross the Strait is limited by a lack of air and sea transports.
Despite the PLA’s efforts to develop parachute and airmobile capabilities, no more than 30,000 troops could be transported, even were it to mobilize every ship and aircraft at its disposal, Tan said.
Taiwan’s coast is mostly unsuitable for amphibious landings due to erosion and urban development on beaches, he said.
Tzeng Yi-suo (曾怡碩), an assistant researcher at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research’s Division of Cybersecurity and Decisionmaking Simulation, said that Beijing is exploiting the normal competition between political parties to divide Taiwan.
Hijacking the political messaging of Taiwan’s opposition parties is a simple but effective tactic, he said.
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