China is unlikely to attain the military capability to engage in an all-out conflict with Taiwan within the decade, but it might initiate “gray zone” conflicts to force negotiations, an expert said yesterday.
Chi Yue-yi (亓樂義), an expert on China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA), made the comment at a conference in Taipei held by the National Policy Foundation, a think tank affiliated with the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT).
While the capability to mount a full-scale invasion would elude China for 10 years at the least, there is an extremely high risk that Beijing would utilize limited warfare to gain political leverage, Chi said.
Photo: Aaron Tu, Taipei Times
The threat of limited conflict includes pressure-point warfare, perceptual warfare, intimidation and punitive expedition, he said.
The specific form this conflict would take would be determined by China’s progress in reforming the PLA, the internal and external environment, and the global geostrategic situation, he said.
In a document titled The Indo-Pacific Strategy, the US stated its commitment to maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait by working with partners inside and outside the region, Chi said.
This shows that the Taiwan issue has become an international concern and that a coalition of maritime powers against China is emerging under Washington’s aegis, he said.
Foiling the rise of such a coalition is likely to take precedence over Bejing’s other strategic goals, including its quest to unify with Taiwan, Chi wrote in a document that he presented at the conference.
Former KMT legislator Lin Yu-fang (林郁方), the convener of the foundation’s national security division, said Taiwanese and Chinese customs officials estimate that bilateral trade is worth US$273 billion and US$328.3 billion respectively.
The high degree of economic integration and political hostility between the two sides is a combination that has no precedent, Lin said, adding that the “status quo” is probably unsustainable.
President Tsai Ing-wen’s (蔡英文) trade policy regarding agricultural imports from the US and Japan is motivated not by economic concerns, but a desire to placate potential allies amid worsening relations with China, he said.
Tan Chih-lung (淡志隆), former head of Taiwan’s military delegation to the US, said that the PLA’s ability to cross the Strait is limited by a lack of air and sea transports.
Despite the PLA’s efforts to develop parachute and airmobile capabilities, no more than 30,000 troops could be transported, even were it to mobilize every ship and aircraft at its disposal, Tan said.
Taiwan’s coast is mostly unsuitable for amphibious landings due to erosion and urban development on beaches, he said.
Tzeng Yi-suo (曾怡碩), an assistant researcher at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research’s Division of Cybersecurity and Decisionmaking Simulation, said that Beijing is exploiting the normal competition between political parties to divide Taiwan.
Hijacking the political messaging of Taiwan’s opposition parties is a simple but effective tactic, he said.
AIR SUPPORT: The Ministry of National Defense thanked the US for the delivery, adding that it was an indicator of the White House’s commitment to the Taiwan Relations Act Deputy Minister of National Defense Po Horng-huei (柏鴻輝) and Representative to the US Alexander Yui on Friday attended a delivery ceremony for the first of Taiwan’s long-awaited 66 F-16C/D Block 70 jets at a Lockheed Martin Corp factory in Greenville, South Carolina. “We are so proud to be the global home of the F-16 and to support Taiwan’s air defense capabilities,” US Representative William Timmons wrote on X, alongside a photograph of Taiwanese and US officials at the event. The F-16C/D Block 70 jets Taiwan ordered have the same capabilities as aircraft that had been upgraded to F-16Vs. The batch of Lockheed Martin
GRIDLOCK: The National Fire Agency’s Special Search and Rescue team is on standby to travel to the countries to help out with the rescue effort A powerful earthquake rocked Myanmar and neighboring Thailand yesterday, killing at least three people in Bangkok and burying dozens when a high-rise building under construction collapsed. Footage shared on social media from Myanmar’s second-largest city showed widespread destruction, raising fears that many were trapped under the rubble or killed. The magnitude 7.7 earthquake, with an epicenter near Mandalay in Myanmar, struck at midday and was followed by a strong magnitude 6.4 aftershock. The extent of death, injury and destruction — especially in Myanmar, which is embroiled in a civil war and where information is tightly controlled at the best of times —
China's military today said it began joint army, navy and rocket force exercises around Taiwan to "serve as a stern warning and powerful deterrent against Taiwanese independence," calling President William Lai (賴清德) a "parasite." The exercises come after Lai called Beijing a "foreign hostile force" last month. More than 10 Chinese military ships approached close to Taiwan's 24 nautical mile (44.4km) contiguous zone this morning and Taiwan sent its own warships to respond, two senior Taiwanese officials said. Taiwan has not yet detected any live fire by the Chinese military so far, one of the officials said. The drills took place after US Secretary
THUGGISH BEHAVIOR: Encouraging people to report independence supporters is another intimidation tactic that threatens cross-strait peace, the state department said China setting up an online system for reporting “Taiwanese independence” advocates is an “irresponsible and reprehensible” act, a US government spokesperson said on Friday. “China’s call for private individuals to report on alleged ‘persecution or suppression’ by supposed ‘Taiwan independence henchmen and accomplices’ is irresponsible and reprehensible,” an unnamed US Department of State spokesperson told the Central News Agency in an e-mail. The move is part of Beijing’s “intimidation campaign” against Taiwan and its supporters, and is “threatening free speech around the world, destabilizing the Indo-Pacific region, and deliberately eroding the cross-strait status quo,” the spokesperson said. The Chinese Communist Party’s “threats
RSS