The true scale of a viral pneumonia outbreak in China is likely far bigger than officially reported, scientists have said, as countries ramp up measures to prevent the disease from spreading.
Fears that the virus will spread are growing ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday, when hundreds of millions of Chinese move around the country and many others host or visit extended family members living overseas.
Authorities in China have said two people have died and at least 45 have been infected, with the outbreak centered around a seafood market in Wuhan, a central city of 11 million inhabitants that serves as a major transport hub.
Photo: AFP
However, a paper published Friday by scientists with the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College in London said that the number of cases in the city was likely about 1,700.
The researchers said that their estimate was largely based on the fact that cases had been reported overseas — two in Thailand and one in Japan.
The virus — a new strain of coronavirus that humans can contract — has caused alarm because of its connection to SARS, which killed nearly 650 people across China and Hong Kong in 2002-2003.
China has not announced any travel restrictions, but authorities in Hong Kong have stepped up detection measures, including rigorous temperature checkpoints for inbound travelers from China.
The US has said that from Friday it would begin screening flights arriving from Wuhan at San Francisco International Airport and New York’s John F. Kennedy International Airport — which both receive direct flights — as well as Los Angeles International Airport, where many flights connect.
Thailand said it was already screening passengers arriving in Bangkok, Chiang Mai and Phuket, and would soon introduce similar controls in Krabi.
No human-to-human transmission has been confirmed so far, but the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission has said that the possibility “cannot be excluded.”
A WHO doctor said it would not be surprising if there was “some limited human-to-human transmission, especially among families who have close contact with one another.”
Scientists with the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis — which advises bodies including the WHO — said they estimated a “total of 1,723” people in Wuhan would have been infected as of Sunday last week.
“For Wuhan to have exported three cases to other countries would imply there would have to be many more cases than have been reported,” Neil Ferguson, one of the authors of the report, told the BBC.
“I am substantially more concerned than I was a week ago,” he said, while adding that it was “too early to be alarmist.”
“People should be considering the possibility of substantial human-to-human transmission more seriously than they have so far,” he said, adding that it was “unlikely” that animal exposure was the sole source of infection.
Local authorities in Wuhan said a 69-year-old man died on Wednesday, becoming the second fatality, with the disease causing pulmonary tuberculosis and damage to multiple organ functions.
After the death was reported, online discussion spread in China over the severity of the coronavirus — and how much information the government might be hiding from the public.
Several complained about censorship of online posts, while others made comparisons to 2003, when Beijing drew criticism from the WHO for underreporting the number of SARS cases.
“It’s so strange,” wrote a Web user on Sina Weibo, citing the overseas cases in Japan and Thailand. “They all have Wuhan pneumonia cases but [in China] we don’t have any infections outside of Wuhan — is that scientific?”
GEARING UP: An invasion would be difficult and would strain China’s forces, but it has conducted large-scale training supporting an invasion scenario, the report said China increased its military pressure on Taiwan last year and took other steps in preparation for a potential invasion, an annual report published by the US Department of Defense on Wednesday showed. “Throughout 2023, Beijing continued to erode longstanding norms in and around Taiwan by employing a range of pressure tactics against Taiwan,” the report said, which is titled “Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China (PRC) 2024.” The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) “is preparing for a contingency to unify Taiwan with the PRC by force, if perceived as necessary by Beijing, while simultaneously deterring, delaying or denying
‘LAGGING BEHIND’: The NATO secretary-general called on democratic allies to be ‘clear-eyed’ about Beijing’s military buildup, urging them to boost military spending NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte mentioning China’s bullying of Taiwan and its ambition to reshape the global order has significance during a time when authoritarian states are continuously increasing their aggression, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) said yesterday. In a speech at the Carnegie Europe think tank in Brussels on Thursday, Rutte said Beijing is bullying Taiwan and would start to “nibble” at Taiwan if Russia benefits from a post-invasion peace deal with Ukraine. He called on democratic allies to boost defense investments and also urged NATO members to increase defense spending in the face of growing military threats from Russia
PEACEFUL RESOLUTION: A statement issued following a meeting between Australia and Britain reiterated support for Taiwan and opposition to change in the Taiwan Strait Canada should support the peaceful resolution of Taiwan’s destiny according to the will of Taiwanese, Canadian lawmakers said in a resolution marking the second anniversary of that nation’s Indo-Pacific strategy on Monday. The Canadian House of Commons committee on Canada-Chinese relations made the comment as part of 34 recommendations for the new edition of the strategy, adding that Ottawa should back Taiwan’s meaningful participation in international organizations. Canada’s Indo-Pacific Strategy, first published in October 2022, emphasized that the region’s security, trade, human rights, democracy and environmental protection would play a crucial role in shaping Canada’s future. The strategy called for Canada to deepen
TECH CONFERENCE: Input from industry and academic experts can contribute to future policymaking across government agencies, President William Lai said Multifunctional service robots could be the next new area in which Taiwan could play a significant role, given its strengths in chip manufacturing and software design, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電) chairman and chief executive C.C. Wei (魏哲家) said yesterday. “In the past two months, our customers shared a lot of their future plans with me. Artificial intelligence [AI] and AI applications were the most talked about subjects in our conversation,” Wei said in a speech at the National Science and Technology Conference in Taipei. TSMC, the world’s biggest contract chipmaker, counts Nvidia Corp, Advanced Micro Devices Inc, Apple Inc and
RSS