Charges have formally been brought in Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) Chairman Ko Wen-je’s (柯文哲) bribery, corruption and embezzling of campaign funds cases. Ko was briefly released on bail by the Taipei District Court on Friday, but the High Court on Sunday reversed the decision. Then, the Taipei District Court on the same day granted him bail again.
The ball is in dueling courts.
While preparing for a “year ahead” column and reviewing a Formosa poll from last month, it’s clear that the TPP’s demographics are shifting, and there are some indications of where support for the party is heading.
Photo: Liao Chen-huei, Taipei Times
YOUNG, MALE SUPPORTERS?
Reviewing dozens of pictures and videos of Ko’s supporters shows a predominantly young, male crowd — probably two-thirds.
That gap is not showing up in broad favorability polling on the TPP. Of men, 23 percent view the party favorably, compared to 22.2 percent for women. Men are more likely to view the party negatively at 62.8 percent compared with women at 59.5 percent, according to Formosa.
Photo: Chen Yi-kuan, Taipei Times
Since Ko is the face and leader of the party, this is a significant disparity. The most likely explanation is that more men are enthusiastic enough to go to rallies, whereas women may feel less strongly. The polling hints this is the case, as the hundreds or low thousands of people showing up are likely those who answered “very favorable” instead of “somewhat favorable.”
The math roughly correlates, as 3.1 percent of men feel “very favorable” versus only 1.6 for women, suggesting a male/female turnout of roughly two to one, or about two-thirds of the crowd being male, which tracks with the photographic evidence.
FAVORABILITY STILL FAIRLY HIGH
Photo: Chen Chih-chu, Taipei Times
Since Ko’s troubles went public in August, the TPP’s favorability has dropped from the low-to-mid thirties to the low-to-mid twenties. That is roughly the percentages that voted for Ko and the party in the party list vote in January, receiving 26.5 and 22 percent respectively, though favorability does not necessarily correlate exactly with voting intentions.
In the election, they got roughly one-third fewer votes than their favorability score since voters may feel favorable towards more than one party. This suggests that as things stand now, the TPP would still easily surpass the five percent threshold to win party seats in the legislature, as they did in January.
A lot can happen between now and the next legislative election three years from now. Ko has just been formally charged and faces up 28.5 years in prison if he is convicted, though if he is I would be surprised if he was given the maximum sentence.
Whether or not Ko and the TPP retain this level of support is something I’ve examined in previous columns. In a nutshell, there are two countervailing phenomena at play: On the one hand, the history of past third parties suggests that the TPP may be hitting its shelf life in one, maybe two, election cycles.
MARTYR TO THE ‘GREEN TERROR’
On the other hand, the TPP has been surprisingly resilient in retaining enthusiastic and passionate supporters. It is telling that the few party members who have left or resigned are not high-ranking, and that there are still hundreds or thousands of supporters showing up regularly for events and rallies.
They vehemently insist that Ko is being framed. Many go so far as to say he is a martyr for democracy and the victim of a plot spearheaded by President William Lai (賴清德), with the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) colluding with prosecutors to take down the TPP.
The TPP officially calls this a “green terror” and says that it shows Taiwan is backsliding into authoritarianism. The official Web site claims: “Over the course of the 70-hour interrogation, Ko Wen-je was confined for two nights in a cramped, three-square-meter detention room at the Taipei District Prosecutor’s Office” and claims he was fed only bread and water, was unable to bathe, the lights were kept on so he could not sleep and that he was handcuffed “unnecessarily.”
There is no evidence of this mistreatment, and the prosecution would be making a grave mistake and could be jailed themselves if it were true.
The mentality shown by TPP followers here is less like followers of a political party and more like that of a cult. The question is: will this mentality hold through future election cycles and, if so, for how many?
READING THE TEA LEAVES
Answers to that are hinted at in the polling.
If Ko is convicted, how many of the less enthusiastic “somewhat favorable” people will stick around? A lot will depend on the evidence that comes out and the final ruling.
While hardcore supporters may continue to buy the “green terror” narrative, if the evidence is damning and Ko is convicted a lot of people will head for the exits. Leaks published by Mirror Media and others do not suggest Ko has a bright future.
The TPP’s unfavorability ratings jumped by roughly 10 points, while favorability dropped by roughly the same amount. But this does not tell us where the changes came from.
Meanwhile, those who didn’t answer either favorable or unfavorable in the latest poll was 16.3 percent, only a 2.1 percent decrease from a year ago. While we can not be entirely certain they are the same people, it seems likely that they are and simply do not consume news.
Previously, the TPP’s favorability ratings were highest in the 20-29 demographic but successively dropped with every age range.
In the same poll from a year ago, favorability in that demographic was an impressive 50.9 percent, with unfavorability at only 28.7. Though the 30-39 cohort’s overall favorability was lower at 48.7 percent, their “very favorable” was higher at 14.7 compared to 10.3 in the younger crowd.
A year on a very different picture emerges. The highest favorability rating now is 34.5 registered among the 30-39 demographic versus only 30.4 among the 20-29 year-olds.
Add in demographic decline among the younger set, it is more likely that the average TPP supporter is in their thirties.
However, among the hardcore “very favorable” set the younger crowd is at 5.1 against 3.2 for those in their thirties. That may balance out the bigger size of the older demographic among the faithful.
It also appears that much of the spike in unfavorability may have come from the younger crowd, which more than doubled to 58.7 percent. Among those in their thirties, the jump was a much smaller 12.6 percent, bringing it up to 48.6.
So far, it has been the youngest “somewhat favorable” demographic that has fled in the largest numbers. A bad result in the trial may lead younger voters to look elsewhere.
Donovan’s Deep Dives is a regular column by Courtney Donovan Smith (石東文) who writes in-depth analysis on everything about Taiwan’s political scene and geopolitics. Donovan is also the central Taiwan correspondent at ICRT FM100 Radio News, co-publisher of Compass Magazine, co-founder Taiwan Report (report.tw) and former chair of the Taichung American Chamber of Commerce. Follow him on X: @donovan_smith.
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