The local press is already running lots of content on the jostling and jockeying for power within the parties to be in position to emerge as the chosen candidates in the 2026 elections. In part one of this series we examined some of the strategies being pursued and considerations the parties faced, and examined the races in northern Taiwan.
The races in the northern “big six” metropolises share a lot of similarities with each other, and the southern ones of Tainan and Kaohsiung also have commonalities. Taichung will comprise part three of this series, as it is a complicated race full of intrigue in all three parties and does not fit in either the northern or southern categories very well.
In the south, the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) barely exists and the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) is weak but at times viable. The main action is on the Democratic Progressive Party side because much of the party’s talent is from the south.
Photo: Yang Chin-cheng, Liberty Times
President and Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) party Chair William Lai (賴清德) has thrown out a power-sharing arrangement instituted by former president and party chair Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) that allotted party and government positions out to the various factions on a set formula. This has caused inter-factional friction to spike, and in the local chapter elections in May and in the runup to the DPP National Congress on July 21, the factions are fighting to stay relevant and be in a position to influence the candidate slate for the 2026 election.
TAINAN CITY
South of Taichung, the coverage of who might run in Tainan and Kaohsiung is far less extensive on the KMT and TPP sides. The TPP has only one focused on Kaohsiung, and none seemingly in Tainan.
Photo courtesy of the Tainan City Government
The best guess at this point is that the TPP will not run a candidate in either city. In 2022, party chair Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) lamented his party’s lack of “outstanding talents” in those cities, and when asked about Kaohsiung recently he said the party was “searching for more outstanding talents.” In other words, so far the party has no one with even the slightest chance of winning. Though candidates could appear between now and then, if none do, then the party would be better served by conserving their resources for battles in cities and counties they have a fighting chance of winning.
The KMT will almost certainly run Legislator Hsieh Lung-chieh (謝龍介), who won a respectable 44 percent of the vote in 2022 against a powerful incumbent. I have not been able to find any references anywhere to anyone else running Tainan for the KMT, or even remotely considering it.
Hsieh is a colorful personality whose antics and bombast put him on my “must-watch” list as far back as his city council days. With his knack for drawing attention, his experience of running in 2022 and the DPP running a fresh candidate after what will likely be a bruising and damaging primary, he might have a chance at winning this traditionally deep-green city.
Photo: Wang Jung-hsiang, Taipei Times
The big action is on the DPP side. Tainan is a DPP bastion, and many of the party’s most powerful politicians represent the city or have in the past, including President Lai, who served the city as mayor and as a legislator.
While other candidates have been mooted, almost all the press attention has been focused on three heavyweight legislators. Legislator Lin Chun-hsien (林俊憲) is a member of Lai’s subfaction of New Tide (新潮流系統, usually abbreviated to 新系). Lin has not left much of an impression on me, and he is probably the least prominent, but being a member of the most powerful faction in the DPP presumably has its perks.
Another is lawmaker Wang Ting-yu (王定宇) who is notable for having a high profile in both Chinese and English-language media. With excellent English skills, a social media presence and deep knowledge of military issues and foreign affairs he is a popular go-to guy for quotes for foreign journalists. Wang is in the relatively small Taiwan Forward faction (湧言會, also often referred to as the Ocean faction, 海派), but it does seem as if this faction is stronger in the south than in the north.
The third on the list is Chen Ting-fei (陳亭妃). Like the KMT’s Huang, she is also full of bombast and colorful antics, and a face off between these two would be an entertaining fireworks show. She is in the second most powerful faction, the Taiwan Normal Country Promotion Association (TNCPA, 正常國家促進會, usually abbreviated to 正國會).
However, she might not be in the TNCPA for long. Bucking orders from the faction, she showed up and registered to run as a candidate for the DPP’s Central Executive Committee elections on July 21. Reports have quoted faction members using words like “traitor,” while others have suggested she is planning to break away and form her own faction. More likely tempers will calm over time, but this bears watching closely.
Chen is explicitly angling for a Central Standing Committee seat because she is worried that the system for conducting primaries may be changed, presumably so New Tide’s Lin Chun-hsien is a shoe-in. It is widely suspected that she was blocked internally inside the DPP from running in 2018 by Lai and his supporters. Playing hard and fast with primary rules to influence the outcome has happened before, and both the DPP and KMT did so repeatedly in the 2019 presidential primaries.
Interestingly, the KMT’s Hsieh, citing internal “grassroots” polling, says that Chen is far and away more popular than any other potential DPP candidate. While there is a possibility that as a KMT politician he is playing some sort of game or making things up, I am inclined to believe him because he does have a reputation for being blunt and straightforward, and the election is still more than two years away.
KAOHSIUNG CITY
Exactly the same as with Tainan, there are no potential candidates for the TPP being discussed, and only one on the KMT side: party list lawmaker Ko Chih-en (柯志恩). Ko has for years headed up the KMT’s think tank and is one of the most knowledgeable and intelligent members of the party.
She ran in 2022 and lost by 18 points to incumbent Chen Chi-mai (陳其邁), but considering that Chen is consistently ranked the most or second most popular local leader in the country in a deep green city, her 40 percent is fairly respectable. With her experience of running in 2022 and against a new, inexperienced DPP candidate, she could have a shot at winning, especially if the DPP primary turns ugly.
It definitely could. Most press reports on potential DPP candidates who could join the primary generally list five or six people then add “etcetera.” It had at one point been clear that the DPP had their candidate in Chao Tien-lin (趙天麟), but he got caught having an extramarital affair with a Chinese woman, so now the field is wide open.
There may be a way to bring this list down to three. Of the five most commonly cited candidates and presumptive candidates, lawmakers Lai Jui-lung (賴瑞隆) and Hsu Chih-chieh (許智傑) are both in Control Yuan President Chen Chu’s (陳菊) subfaction of New Tide, while Pan Men-an (潘孟安), the former Pingtung County commissioner and current Secretary-General to the President, is in the William Lai subfaction of New Tide. New Tide historically has been known for internal discipline and they could settle on one candidate internally, though I have seen some signs they may not be as disciplined as they once were.
Like Chen Ting-fei in Tainan, Legislator Lin Tai-hua (林岱樺) is TNCPA. Though not known for sure, the general consensus is that former labor minister and Vice Kaohsiung mayor Hsu Ming-chun (許銘春) does not belong to any faction.
The three legislators have not left much of an impression outside of Kaohsiung, and it is hard to gauge their support on the ground there. Hsu is a bit more well-known nationally as labor minister. Pan has been an attention-grabber in the past, but not always for the best of reasons. Pingtung is known for seedy politics, and inevitably politicians there have to work with less than savory counterparts, though it should be emphasized that Pan has never been in any legal trouble.
However, Pan is very close to William Lai, and helped run his presidential campaign. How much this may or may not help him locally is hard to say, but he will have name recognition from being the leader of the county next door and Lai has worked to help raise his profile nationally.
Donovan’s Deep Dives is a regular column by Courtney Donovan Smith (石東文) who writes in-depth analysis on everything about Taiwan’s political scene and geopolitics. Donovan is also the central Taiwan correspondent at ICRT FM100 Radio News, co-publisher of Compass Magazine, co-founder Taiwan Report (report.tw) and former chair of the Taichung American Chamber of Commerce. Follow him on X: @donovan_smith.
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