Myanmar’s generals have a choice to make following the magnitude 7.7 earthquake on Friday last week.
They can repeat the mistakes of 17 years ago when they refused to allow in international help after Cyclone Nargis tore through the country, leaving 140,000 dead, or facilitate the free flow of urgent assistance.
Determined to keep Myanmar closed to the world, the junta blocked international relief efforts by banning foreign boats and aircraft from delivering supplies and delaying visas for aid workers in the first few critical weeks after the 2008 disaster. It cannot afford to take the same path this time.
Illustration: Mountain People
Modeling from the US Geological Survey indicates that more than 10,000 people might have died in the quake, and that estimated economic losses could exceed the nation’s GDP.
So far, the generals appear to be allowing some assistance in, although it is not yet clear whether it is reaching areas held by the anti-junta resistance. Severely limited Internet access means there is little information about the true death toll other than the official tally of 2,056, with more than 3,900 injured.
That Myanmar is in the middle of a civil war is complicating rescue efforts and the distribution of aid. The regime, which took power in a coup in 2021, controls less than one-quarter of the country.
India is airlifting a mobile army hospital to Mandalay — the epicenter of the earthquake — along with a team of medics and tonnes of relief supplies. China, Russia, Israel and the UK are also providing assistance, while ASEAN said teams from Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam had been deployed. US President Donald Trump’s cuts to the US Agency for International Development have reportedly delayed and restricted help from the US.
The junta’s acceptance of aid is a significant step, and one that the international community should leverage to pry the doors open further. They also must prevent the regime from exploiting the assistance for its own gain.
Ironically, it was, in part, the junta’s decision in 2008 to eventually allow in foreign aid to deal with the cyclone’s aftermath that led to Myanmar’s gradual opening up, and the eventual election of pro-democracy forces in 2015. Citizens would be hoping something similar happens.
Anti-junta groups and ethnic armies hold the bulk of the territory, along with important infrastructure projects including Chinese-funded oil and gas pipelines and parts of the 1,400km highway that runs from the northeastern Indian state of Manipur through Myanmar to Mae Sot in Thailand.
The National Unity Government, which represents the ousted civilian administration, initiated a two-week ceasefire in quake-hit areas to allow aid to reach victims. It does not look like the junta would do the same. Instead, its warplanes continued to conduct airstrikes near the disaster zones, taking advantage of the chaos to try and gain a foothold against rebel armies.
China, India and Thailand — Myanmar’s three biggest neighbors — have an important role to play, as does the UN, which estimates that 20 million people have been affected by the quake and the magnitude 5.1 aftershock that followed on Sunday.
The EU, the UK, Australia and New Zealand, among others, have announced millions of dollars in aid. The key would be how this is distributed and whether pressure from donor nations and relief groups can convince the junta to give up its four-year-long war against its citizens.
Beijing, in particular, cannot be happy with the chaos on its border, where Myanmar’s army has clashed with armed resistance groups, forcing refugees to flee into China. It is unclear whether a Beijing-mediated ceasefire agreement that came into effect in January will hold.
Rather than prop up the junta, China should support the peace process in other parts of the country that would encourage a stable environment and help protect its investments. That is also a chance to prove its credibility as a global peacemaker, a role it has shown ambitions to play in Ukraine and elsewhere.
The Burmese army, or Tatmadaw as it is known, has perpetuated war on multiple fronts since the nation won independence from British rule in 1948. The earthquake has only exacerbated the humanitarian crisis born out of that generations-long conflict. Even before it hit, about one-third of the population was in need of humanitarian assistance, while the civil war had displaced more than 3.5 million people, including 1.6 million in the crisis-struck areas.
There is precedence for a natural disaster helping to end a long-running conflict. The Acehnese national army — the armed wing of the Free Aceh Movement in Indonesia — demobilized and disbanded a year after the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami destroyed much of the province, ending a 30-year separatist insurgency.
Cyclone Nargis and the tsunami have provided a road map, however imperfect. Myanmar and its backers should use it.
Ruth Pollard is a Bloomberg Opinion Managing Editor. Previously she was South and Southeast Asia government team leader at Bloomberg News and Middle East correspondent for the Sydney Morning Herald. This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
Concerns that the US might abandon Taiwan are often overstated. While US President Donald Trump’s handling of Ukraine raised unease in Taiwan, it is crucial to recognize that Taiwan is not Ukraine. Under Trump, the US views Ukraine largely as a European problem, whereas the Indo-Pacific region remains its primary geopolitical focus. Taipei holds immense strategic value for Washington and is unlikely to be treated as a bargaining chip in US-China relations. Trump’s vision of “making America great again” would be directly undermined by any move to abandon Taiwan. Despite the rhetoric of “America First,” the Trump administration understands the necessity of
US President Donald Trump’s challenge to domestic American economic-political priorities, and abroad to the global balance of power, are not a threat to the security of Taiwan. Trump’s success can go far to contain the real threat — the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) surge to hegemony — while offering expanded defensive opportunities for Taiwan. In a stunning affirmation of the CCP policy of “forceful reunification,” an obscene euphemism for the invasion of Taiwan and the destruction of its democracy, on March 13, 2024, the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) used Chinese social media platforms to show the first-time linkage of three new
If you had a vision of the future where China did not dominate the global car industry, you can kiss those dreams goodbye. That is because US President Donald Trump’s promised 25 percent tariff on auto imports takes an ax to the only bits of the emerging electric vehicle (EV) supply chain that are not already dominated by Beijing. The biggest losers when the levies take effect this week would be Japan and South Korea. They account for one-third of the cars imported into the US, and as much as two-thirds of those imported from outside North America. (Mexico and Canada, while
The military is conducting its annual Han Kuang exercises in phases. The minister of national defense recently said that this year’s scenarios would simulate defending the nation against possible actions the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) might take in an invasion of Taiwan, making the threat of a speculated Chinese invasion in 2027 a heated agenda item again. That year, also referred to as the “Davidson window,” is named after then-US Indo-Pacific Command Admiral Philip Davidson, who in 2021 warned that Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) had instructed the PLA to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027. Xi in 2017