Japan and the EU have much in common. They are two iconic symbols of US-led reconstruction, pacification and democratization after World War II. Their global rise in the subsequent decades came from outworking, not outgunning, their rivals. They have both been nervously watching security threats mass on their border in the shapes of Russia and China, and now they are contemplating the risk of US strategic abandonment after a lifetime of reliance on Washington’s security umbrella.
That common pressure is prompting a renewed search for deeper strategic ties. In November last year, just a few days before US President Donald Trump won the US presidential election, Tokyo and Brussels concluded the EU-Japan Security and Defense Partnership, affirming their mutual commitment to a “free and open international order based on the rule of law.”
It laid out several areas of future cooperation, from maritime security and counterterrorism to space and defense expertise. It showed a lot of aspiration, yet not a lot of urgency.
It is time to go further.
Even before Trump’s return, Europe and Japan both rapidly needed to shift from their peacetime posture to one preparing for war. The pace of change is accelerating now that his administration is attacking European allies and casting doubt on its support of NATO, as at the Munich Security Conference. While nothing similar has been aimed at Japan, it also worries it would be thrown under the bus if Trump becomes keen to ink a deal with Beijing.
As powers with similar commitments to liberal-democratic norms and a deep interest in defending the “status quo,” especially in the Indo-Pacific region, Europe and Japan should act decisively to solidify their partnership further.
While neither the EU nor Japan today can do without the US — especially Tokyo, given it has no alternative NATO alliance to fall back on — they can help each other prepare for a less certain tomorrow. Japan, already the world’s No. 10 military spender, is aiming to lift defense spending to 2 percent of GDP. It has been less naive and more prescient in recognizing the threat posed by Russia and China than Germany, whose reluctance to invest in hard power has left it strategically vulnerable and scrambling to spend three years after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. On top of sharpening threat assessments, the EU’s and Japan’s 188.6 billion euros (US$203 billion) in bilateral trade can also help defend against the Trump tariff target on their backs.
“If the Japanese government feels more insecure about the US commitment to the alliance, then Europe is a natural partner,” said Kazuto Suzuki, professor at the Graduate School of Public Policy at the University of Tokyo, who pointed to a potential new kind of alliance between a post-US NATO and Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand.
With the EU aspiring to roll out as much as 800 billion euros of extra defense spending, there is also a tremendous opportunity for Japan to boost its defense export sector, which for too long has been domestically focused, reducing its competitiveness. Tokyo still only exports military aid indirectly, even to Ukraine. The time is surely nigh to simplify the current situation around Japan-made Patriot missiles, which it cannot export directly to Ukraine — instead, it now supplies them to the US, which in turn ships US-made missiles to the battlefront.
The Global Combat Air Program, a next-generation fighter jet jointly developed between the UK, Japan and Italy by companies including BAE Systems and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, has become a test bed for future projects that combine strategic needs with innovation-sharing.
“Japan could deepen ties with Europe, such as on defense technology and sharing know-how, at a time when threats are rising for both powers,” said Council on Foreign Relations senior fellow Sheila Smith, author of Japan Rearmed.
The challenge for Tokyo is whether it can further untie its hands from behind its own back, by additionally stripping back rules on defense exports. Japan should go further, faster — before it has a Munich Security Conference moment of its own.
Meanwhile, the EU has to confront its own inconsistencies and hesitations. One is China, which is the bloc’s biggest trading partner in Asia. To what extent does the EU really share Japan’s view of the China threat — and might that affect Tokyo’s willingness to bolster sensitive defense ties. Another is commitment — does Europe have the capability and willpower to project power and dedicate naval resources outside its region.
Giulio Pugliese, director of the EU-Asia Project at the European University Institute, fears these could be stumbling blocks, especially if Trump plays divide and rule.
Right now, a united front from like-minded powers is the best answer to a more dangerous world. With Europe now contemplating the possibility of a NATO alliance without the US — which would rob it of about 70 percent of its capabilities — it is high time to work out who your friends are.
Lionel Laurent is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist writing about the future of money and the future of Europe. Previously, he was a reporter for Reuters and Forbes. Gearoid Reidy is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Japan and the Koreas. He previously led the breaking news team in North Asia and was the Tokyo deputy bureau chief. This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
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