China has announced a 7.2 percent increase in its defense budget, raising it to US$249 billion this year, from US$232 billion last year.
For more than two decades before 2015, its defense budget rose by double-digit percentages annually. Crucially, the official defense budget increased 10-fold over the past two decades — from US$24.6 billion in 2004 to US$249 billion this year.
However, the official figures do not give the complete picture. China strategically conceals several defense-related expenses under non-military categories. The official budget does not include expenses on paramilitary forces, provincial military bases, cyberespionage/cognitive warfare, and dual-use infrastructures along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and on artificial islands.
China’s space, satellite, technological weaponry development and nuclear programs are also excluded, as they are covered under scientific and meteorological budgets.
Given these exclusions, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute and the International Institute for Strategic Studies estimate that China’s actual defense expenditure could be much more than it projects. Most experts say that China’s total spending on defense might be more than 50 percent higher, because several items are under other budgets.
China is rapidly advancing its capabilities in space, cyber, nuclear and high-tech weaponry. Its massive defense budget is primarily directed at modernizing its armed forces and strengthening its dominance across the domains of land, sea, air, nuclear, space and cyber. Its increase in its nuclear arsenal is concerning — it would have 700 nuclear warheads by 2027.
The increase in the defense budget reflects China’s geostrategic priorities. Its goals are to replace US dominance, prevent foreign support for Taiwan, establish its hegemony in Asia and assert control in territorial disputes with its neighbors, particularly in the areas it claims in the South and East China seas, and along the 3,488km LAC with India.
Taiwan and India are directly facing problems from China. While Beijing might avoid an outright war to annex Taiwan because of its limitations in conventional warfare against the US, it is likely to use cognitive warfare and threatening military maneuvers to compel it to accede to its demands for unification.
The increase in the defense budget has serious implications for India, given China’s history of border tensions along the LAC and its assessment that India is an obstacle to achieving its dominance in Asia.
Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) troops are stationed in the region with no signs of de-escalation. The increased forays of the PLA Navy in the Indian Ocean have become noticeable. China has the world’s largest navy, with three aircraft carriers and a fourth under construction. China has already built a “string of pearls” around India. It uses influence operations in India’s neighborhood to encourage anti-India groups to create pressure on the nation. The increased defense budget would enable China to launch more aggressively anti-India activities.
India must remain vigilant and strengthen its defense preparedness to counter any potential provocations by the PLA. India also needs to design an effective plan to neutralize the adverse impact of China’s cognitive warfare, as it is likely to increase.
India must enhance its own defense budget for a credible deterrence against China and its vassal state Pakistan. China’s defense budget expansion intends to reshape global security dynamics in its interest. The world must prepare for heightened geopolitical tensions, economic coercion and an intensified arms race.
S.D. Pradhan is a former deputy national security adviser for the Indian government.
Taiwan’s fall would be “a disaster for American interests,” US President Donald Trump’s nominee for undersecretary of defense for policy Elbridge Colby said at his Senate confirmation hearing on Tuesday last week, as he warned of the “dramatic deterioration of military balance” in the western Pacific. The Republic of China (Taiwan) is indeed facing a unique and acute threat from the Chinese Communist Party’s rising military adventurism, which is why Taiwan has been bolstering its defenses. As US Senator Tom Cotton rightly pointed out in the same hearing, “[although] Taiwan’s defense spending is still inadequate ... [it] has been trending upwards
There is nothing the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) could do to stop the tsunami-like mass recall campaign. KMT Chairman Eric Chu (朱立倫) reportedly said the party does not exclude the option of conditionally proposing a no-confidence vote against the premier, which the party later denied. Did an “actuary” like Chu finally come around to thinking it should get tough with the ruling party? The KMT says the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is leading a minority government with only a 40 percent share of the vote. It has said that the DPP is out of touch with the electorate, has proposed a bloated
In an eloquently written piece published on Sunday, French-Taiwanese education and policy consultant Ninon Godefroy presents an interesting take on the Taiwanese character, as viewed from the eyes of an — at least partial — outsider. She muses that the non-assuming and quiet efficiency of a particularly Taiwanese approach to life and work is behind the global success stories of two very different Taiwanese institutions: Din Tai Fung and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC). Godefroy said that it is this “humble” approach that endears the nation to visitors, over and above any big ticket attractions that other countries may have
A media report has suggested that Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairman Eric Chu (朱立倫) was considering initiating a vote of no confidence in Premier Cho Jung-tai (卓榮泰) in a bid to “bring down the Cabinet.” The KMT has denied that this topic was ever discussed. Why might such a move have even be considered? It would have been absurd if it had seen the light of day — potentially leading to a mass loss of legislative seats for the KMT even without the recall petitions already under way. Today the second phase of the recall movement is to begin — which has
RSS