As officials report that a deal has been agreed, a precarious pause in hostilities and the release of hostages could only be welcomed
Hope has rarely felt so fragile or so inadequate. A moment long sought and prayed for would nonetheless be met with fear and apprehension as well as joy by Palestinians in the wasteland that is Gaza and among the traumatized families of Israeli hostages.
After more than 15 months of war, which has left tens of thousands dead and almost 2 million struggling to survive, the US and Qatar announced that a ceasefire and hostage-release deal has been reached. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said there were still “unresolved clauses,” even as his Cabinet prepared to vote on it.
Illustration: Kevin Sheu
Supporting the ceasefire is the correct decision. The broad outlines of the agreement have long been clear. The cost of the delay is unbearable. Since it was first proposed, thousands more Palestinians and an unknown number of Israeli hostages taken in the Hamas raids of Oct. 7, 2023, have been killed. Last week, research in the Lancet medical journal suggested that the death toll recorded by Gazan health officials was 40 percent too low, with an estimated 64,260 Palestinians killed by Israeli forces by June last year.
However, that is all the more reason to welcome, implement, sustain and build upon an agreement. The transition on Monday from US President Joe Biden to US president-elect Donald Trump created the necessary momentum. Netanyahu, who has sought to defer the political reckoning for Oct. 7 as well as the corruption charges he faces, has eagerly anticipated Trump’s return. The president-elect reportedly played hardball with the Israeli leader: He did not want to begin his second term with the conflict ongoing. Hamas did not want to wait for a worse outcome.
However, while Trump predictably claimed the credit, the progress is less a tribute to him than an indictment of Biden’s failure — and a reminder that Netanyahu and the Israeli right expect rewards from Trump down the line. Shifting domestic politics have also made the prime minister less concerned about threats to quit from Israeli Minister of National Security Itamar Ben-Gvir, an extremist coalition partner who boasts that he blocked previous attempts to reach a deal. So much for the Israeli prime minister’s complaints that Hamas was the obstacle.
The agreement reportedly involves a gradual release of 33 Israeli hostages, including children, women, the elderly and sick, and up to 1,000 Palestinian prisoners, alongside a partial Israeli troop withdrawal in a first phase lasting several weeks. This should also see a surge in urgently needed aid. Reportedly, there could be 600 trucks a day — a vast increase, but still woefully inadequate. Even if this materialises and lasts, Israel is due to withdraw cooperation with the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East within days. No other entity has its capacity to deliver aid in Gaza.
After 16 days, talks would begin on a second phase involving the return of other hostages in return for a complete Israeli military withdrawal. The problems with this plan are obvious. The ceasefire might not hold. November 2023’s deal did not. Agreeing to the second phase would be extremely difficult. There is no agreement on what would come after that in Gaza, and who would oversee it.
In May last year, the UN estimated that it would cost US$40 billion and take 16 years to reconstruct Gaza. Much more has since been destroyed. Any tentative sense of relief is shadowed by past suffering, and fears for the future. However, when matters are so desperate, a deal is still a step forward that must be embraced and built upon.
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