The ancient Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu (孫子) said “know yourself and know your enemy and you will win a hundred battles.” Applied in our times, Taiwanese should know themselves and know the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) so that Taiwan will win a hundred battles and hopefully, deter the CCP.
Taiwanese receive information daily about the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) threat from the Ministry of National Defense and news sources. One area that needs better understanding is which forces would the People’s Republic of China (PRC) use to impose martial law and what would be the consequences for living under PRC martial law?
Taiwanese have a living memory of martial law. Taiwan suffered 38 years of Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) martial law (1949-1987) and 43 years of white terror (1949-1992) with the revision of Article 100 of the Criminal Code on May 15, 1992. Others argue that the White Terror period began when the KMT declared and lifted martial law twice during and after the 228 massacre in 1947 (28 February - 2 March and 9 March - 16 May). Taiwan’s martial law period is the second longest lasting martial law after Syria’s Ba’ath party dictatorship (1963 to 2011).
Prior to 1949, the KMT also had enforced versions of martial law in China during the 1920s (before the Imperial Japanese invasion of China) and after 1945.
Taiwanese should remember how important it will be to resist the CCP’s attempt to take over Taiwan since the CCP will institute martial law which I call “Red Terror.”
What is PRC Martial Law?
On 1 March 1996, Chinese President Jiang Zemin (江澤民) signed into law the “The Martial Law of the People’s Republic of China.” The PRC promulgated this law seven years after the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre and the end of the Third Taiwan Strait crisis (July 1995 to March 1996). The CCP derived lessons from these and other incidents, and this law specifies the way the CCP would use the People’s Armed Police (PAP), People’s Police, and the PLA to squelch popular civil protests.
The CCP created the PAP in 1982 to relieve the PLA of suppressing domestic unrest. The PAP would be the primary force used for martial law and, if needed and approved for use by the Central Military Commission (CMC), the PLA would assist. The 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre illustrates how the PLA could be employed. The CCP ordered the PLA to forcibly remove the protesters from Tiananmen Square, which resulted in the murder of at least 10,000 civilians. The CCP imposed martial law from 20 May 1989 and lifted it on 11 January 1990. CCP leaders wanted to stop students demonstrating in over 400 cities throughout China, and, consistent with the Chinese expression “kill the chicken to scare the monkey” — their violent response to Tiananmen Square could guide future actions against civil disorder. Since then, the CCP invested heavily in the PAP to avoid another Tiananmen Square media nightmare. Although martial law was de jure lifted in 1990, the CCP one-party control continues the de facto martial law in places like Tibet, East Turkestan, Inner Mongolia, and Hong Kong.
On 21 June 2020, Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) signed into law a revision of the “Law of the People’s Republic of China on the People’s Armed Police.” According to Article 49, “The PAP shall execute martial law missions in accordance with the applicable provisions of the Martial Law of the People’s Republic of China.” Therefore, if all or a portion of Taiwan was under the control of the CCP, the CMC would task the PAP to execute martial law in Taiwan and conduct a pacification campaign.
Article 2 specifies the PAP “is a key component of the armed forces of the PRC. The PAP is under the “centralized and unified leadership of the Central Committee of the” CCP and the CMC. The PLA’s Science of Military Strategy (2020) presents the PAP’s primary responsibilities include “maintaining political, institutional and regime security, handling emergency rescue, counterterrorism, air support, maritime rights protection, administrative law enforcement, and defense operations.” In 2018, the Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) was made subordinate to the PAP, perhaps to enable the PAP sea and land control of islands.
So, when the CCG approaches Taiwan or its Taiwan’s outer islands, we should realize this is the same force that the CCP will task to conduct martial law, a blockade and/or a quarantine.
The PAP is responsible for internal suppression throughout China. For example, in 2019 the PRC dramatically increased the number of PAP and PLA forces deployed to Hong Kong to suppress demonstrations. The CCP’s experience of putting down the protests in Hong Kong using the PAP and PLA forces provided guidance to the CCP for suppressing democratic people. The CCP assigned a PAP officer “as the commander of the PLA Garrison in Hong Kong” based on his “counter-terrorism experience in Xinjiang” according to the 2023 DOD annual PLA report. The CCP also uses the PAP to squash unrest in East Turkestan and Tibet.
The PAP has over 600,000 personnel for its three main components: the Internal Security Corps, the Mobile Corps, and the CCG. During wartime, the PAP falls under the regional PLA commands.
The CCG is the largest Coast Guard in the world with over 500 ships: 150 regional and oceangoing patrol vessels (more than 1,000 tons); 50 regional patrol combatants (more than 500 tons), and an additional 300 coastal patrol craft (100 tons to 499 tons).
Many experts view the CCG as an extension of the PLA Navy (PLAN). In fact, Greg Poling, Director of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at the Center for Security and International Studies (CSIS), states that many countries treat the CCG “more or less as China’s second navy… there is a sense in the region and with outside parties like the US that the CCG is not really a coast guard, just a navy with a different paint job.” Consistent with Poling’s assessment, the commanders of the key CCG ships and CCG senior positions are often retired PLAN officers. New CCG ships are retrofitted retired PLAN ships or modified from PLAN ship production lines. Poling notes that the newer CCG ships look “indistinguishable from naval ships” including the 76mm guns that indicate they are “a militarized force.” If this is the case, then the CCP’s maritime force (PLAN has 370 and CCG has 500 ships) is almost 2.5 times larger than the US Navy (355)!
The CCG ships are governed by the China Coast Guard Law (2021) and CCG Regulation No. 3 (15 June 2024). These rules allow the CCG to: (1) detain foreign vessels and persons in “waters under China’s jurisdiction” for up to 60 days, (2) use weapons including against foreign and domestic organizations, and (3) detain people who are suspected of violating laws such as (a) entering or leaving the country illegally; (b) suspected of assisting others to illegally enter or exit the country; (c) committing illegal residency or illegal employment; and (d) endangering national security and interests, disrupting social public order, or engaging in suspected of other illegal or criminal activities.
The 2024 annual DOD report on China states that the PAP’s 2nd Mobile Contingent, “based in Fuzhou with units concentrated in Fujian and surrounding provinces along the southeast coast, has a key role of supporting the PLA in preparation for a possible conflict across the Taiwan Strait.” The PRC Coast Guard Law allows the use of force (not a normal activity for the Coast Guard) including in the Taiwan Strait, East China Sea, and South China Sea.
Once war erupts, the CCG will act with the PLAN to prevent maritime exit from or entry into Taiwan. After annexation, the PAP and its CCG will detain people for violating PRC laws. These laws also allow the arrest of those who endanger national security which would include anyone who supports or supported Taiwan independence.
In June 2024, the PRC formalized tracking people who support or supported Taiwan independence. In doing so, the PRC Supreme Court provided specific legal guidance to law enforcement agencies and the courts on how to investigate, prosecute, and try offenses to the PRC Criminal Code Article 103 (covers those who organize, plot, or conduct schemes of splitting the State or undermining unity of the country) with 22 additional guidelines that specifically identifies Taiwan independence supporters including Taiwanese and foreigners as subject to punishment. As recently as October 2024, the PRC’s Taiwan Affairs Office spokesman declared that Democratic Progressive Party Legislator Puma Shen (沈伯洋), retired chairman of UMC Robert Tsao (曹興誠), and Kuma Academy would receive punishment which “in accordance with the law is a just act of punishing those who support independence.”
This new legal instruction allows for punishments from several years, to life imprisonment, and the death penalty. Additionally, the legal instruction permits the PRC courts to try and convict suspects in absentia with no statute of limitations (Article 17).
Readers should absorb three points from the preceding discussion.
First, the PAP is second to the PLA as the greatest threat to Taiwan’s democracy.
Should the CCP order the PLA and all elements of coercive power in China to take over Taiwan, the CCP will declare martial law and Taiwanese will again suffer from this evil. I hope this article makes more people aware of the additional dangers of the CCP beyond the PLA.
Second, the US and the countries in the First Island Chain should consider these CCG “government ships” as warships during Chinese “grey zone” operations.
Western countries should reconsider Coast Guard exchanges with the CCG; the CCG has a far more nefarious mission than other Coast Guards.
Finally, the international community should attempt to document, sanction, and prosecute those PRC personnel, especially PAP, involved in human rights and other international violations. They should be prosecuted wherever and whenever they leave the sanctuary of the PRC and not allowed to enter other countries, especially to meet with government officials.
Guermantes Lailari is a retired US Air Force Foreign Area officer specializing in counterterrorism, irregular warfare, missile defense, and strategy. He holds advanced degrees in international relations and strategic intelligence. He was a Ministry of Foreign Affairs Taiwan Fellow in 2022, a visiting scholar at National Chengchi University and National Defense University in 2023, and is a visiting researcher at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research in 2024.
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