Over the past year, I have noticed an overwhelming theme emerge when Asian tech leaders discuss what comes next for artificial intelligence (AI). There has been a marked desire to move beyond chatbots and software, and into the physical realm.
We would start to see much more AI-enabled hardware and robotics — and it would be coming from Asia.
The experience I have had tuning into many executive chats and tech conferences could best be summed up by Nvidia chief executive officer Jensen Huang’s (黃仁勳) proclamation in Taipei in June: “The next wave of AI is physical AI. The era of robotics has arrived.”
Historically, much coverage of robot-human interactions in Asia have been filled with futuristic techno-orientalist tropes that often fail to reflect reality. However, there are factors that make the region uniquely primed to propel this next leap forward in integrating AI into the physical world. While the US is the leader in AI advances — just as the software and Internet revolution emanated from Silicon Valley — Asian tech giants have traditionally been very good at the hardware side of things.
Citigroup projects that there would be 1.3 billion AI robots globally by 2035 and 4 billion by 2050, doing everything from household chores to delivering parcels. A lot of the progress would come from China, which accounts for 78 percent of all robotics patents over the past two decades, the Citi analysts said.
Japan and South Korea make up 7 percent and 5 percent respectively, while the US contributes just 3 percent. This dominance in Asian robotics remained just as strong as when the sheer quantity of patents was weighed through a quality-assessment measure.
Moreover, robotics is an extremely expensive and difficult process. However, advancement in this sector has emerged as one of China’s top-down priorities for its tech ecosystem, meaning that government subsidies for research and development, as well as other support, give it an edge.
Other societal factors suggest an embrace of AI robotics makes sense. Researchers found Japan is poised to be a global leader in deploying technologies that adopt automation, as it confronts an aging population and shrinking workforce. AI-driven software coupled with hardware are being developed and implemented across all types of work, including white and blue collar, as well as agriculture and services. While many US industries have been gripped by fears of robots taking away livelihoods, in Asia, there has been a tendency to welcome automation due to a people shortage.
This is already playing out, although on a small scale, in several creative ways. A Shenzhen start-up is using an AI robot to help cook meals. A tool unveiled by Japan’s Fujitsu in October teaches Noh, a performance art dating back to the 14th century that is under pressure, as there are fewer people who know the techniques to carry on the tradition. Not to mention the countless industrial robots.
While the region might be behind the US when it comes to AI, Asian tech firms have shown great success in finding practical, market applications for technology developed elsewhere. Japanese tech entrepreneurs especially have been very good at this. Sony Group perfected the consumer radio after taking transistor technology invented in the US. (Sony also unveiled the first consumer robot to the mass market in 1999: the beloved Aibo dog.)
There has been a tendency to over-hype the role and value of robots in Asian societies, especially in Western reporting, when the reality is much more nuanced. I have yet to meet a real person in Japan who ties Shinto animism beliefs into the embrace of robots.
Mounting research suggests that elder-care robotic experiments have not been worth the cost and end up causing more work for caregivers (and that perhaps better immigration policies to address labor crunches would be a more worthwhile solution). Several high-profile robotic ventures launched in recent years have been curtailed.
However, AI could serve as a catalyst, especially as investors and company leaders increasingly search for practical and real-world applications for the technology that go beyond engaging chatbots.
Softbank Group founder Masayoshi Son said in Tokyo last month that he is “passionate about AI robotics,” adding that like his favorite cartoon, Astro Boy, “you can’t just have the muscle, you have to have intelligence.”
I remain skeptical that we would see the rise of AI robots in the new year, but I have no doubt that they are coming, and that they would likely be coming from Asia.
Catherine Thorbecke is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Asia tech. Previously she was a tech reporter at CNN and ABC News. This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
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