Since the start of this month, explosive events in South Korea, France and Syria have shaken the world. In the US, president-elect Donald Trump has not yet taken office, but his foreign policy remarks and tariff threats have already put countries on edge. Taiwan must respond prudently to the volatile global situation, as the effects of external developments on its military, government and economy are still unknown.
On Dec. 3, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol sent shock waves across markets after he declared martial law in a late-night announcement. Although the declaration was lifted within six hours, it triggered protests calling for his removal. Yoon is under criminal investigation for alleged insurrection, abuse of authority and obstructing people from exercising their rights. He has been banned from leaving the country. On Saturday, South Korean lawmakers voted to impeach him and suspend him from his official duties, with a general election likely to be held next year if the Constitutional Court decides to remove him from office.
While South Korea’s political drama might be brief, it could dampen investors’ appetite for the country’s assets and deal a blow to its economy, which faces greater headwinds amid threats of tariff hikes by the incoming Trump administration. Taiwan must pay close attention to the political and economic developments in South Korea, as the relationship between the two East Asian economies is both competitive and cooperative.
Meanwhile in Europe, the French National Assembly on Dec. 4 ousted prime minister Michel Barnier in a no-confidence vote, just three months after he was appointed by French President Emmanuel Macron, making him the shortest-serving prime minister in modern French history. The next day, Macron rejected demands that he step down early and said that the government’s top priority was to get next year’s budget passed.
The downfall of Barnier and his Cabinet is not only a political crisis, but also a financial disaster. Economic and trade relations between Taipei and Paris have grown steadily in the past few years, and Taiwan has earned a hard-won positive image among many French politicians after years of diplomatic efforts. However, the political turmoil in the eurozone’s second-biggest economy could affect relations with Taiwan.
At the same time, the collapse of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government coalition last month and a snap election expected in February could also impact Taiwan, especially amid the construction of a Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co fab in Dresden, Germany.
Amid all these, the most crucial factor that could shape Taiwan’s future, as well as US policy toward China, is Trump’s return to the White House next month. During his election campaign, the former US president said he might not have as clear a commitment to defending Taiwan as US President Joe Biden does. Trump has also claimed that Taiwan “stole” the US’ semiconductor industry and demanded that Taiwan drastically increase its military spending and pay the US for “protection.”
Of course, Trump does not have the final say on Taiwan’s defense budget, but when it comes to Taiwan’s national security, aside from thanking the US for its concerns, it is urgent that the nation boost its military spending to enhance national defense. To this end, it is important that the ruling and opposition parties reach a consensus on bolstering the nation’s self-defense capabilities, rather than continuing with their domestic bickering and petty accusations about security. A solid emphasis on saving the country on our own is the appropriate response to Trump during his second presidency.
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