The rapid increase in satellites and space junk would make low Earth orbit unusable unless companies and countries cooperate and share the data needed to manage that most accessible region of space, experts and industry insiders said.
A UN panel on space traffic coordination in late October determined that urgent action was necessary and called for a comprehensive shared database of orbital objects as well as an international framework to track and manage them.
More than 14,000 satellites, including about 3,500 inactive satellites, surround the globe in low Earth orbit, data from US-based Slingshot Aerospace showed. Alongside them are about 120 million pieces of debris from launches, collisions and wear-and-tear, of which only a few thousand are large enough to track.
Illustration: Louise Ting
“There’s no time to lose on space traffic coordination. With so many objects being launched into space, we have to do everything we can to ensure space safety, and that means facilitating the sharing of information between operators, be they public or private, in order to avoid collisions,” UN Office for Outer Space Affairs director and panel co-chair Aarti Holla-Maini said.
Low Earth orbit must remain safe to prevent costly disruption to the technology behind global communication, navigation and scientific exploration, she said.
Yet there is no centralized system that all space-faring nations can leverage, and even persuading them to use such a system has many obstacles. Whereas some countries are willing to share data, others fear compromising security, particularly as satellites are often dual-use and include defense purposes. Moreover, enterprises are keen to guard commercial secrets.
In the meantime, the mess multiplies. A Chinese rocket stage exploded in August, adding thousands of fragments of debris to low Earth orbit. In June, a defunct Russian satellite exploded, scattering thousands of shards which forced astronauts on the International Space Station to take shelter for an hour.
Low Earth orbit is the region most congested with human-made objects, as it offers a balance between cost and proximity, making it a prime target for the rapidly growing commercial space sector.
It has also seen a 17 percent rise in close approaches per satellite over the past year, Slingshot data showed.
Projections point to tens of thousands more satellites entering orbit in the coming years. Based on a modelled scenario, the potential financial risk of collisions is likely to be US$556 million over five years, with a 3.13 percent annual collision probability and US$111 million in yearly damages, NorthStar Earth & Space said.
“We are at a critical point with respect to putting regulations and structure in space to monitor and manage the growing congestion. With Starlink launching thousands of satellites per year, China and others preparing to follow, we will soon push the bearing capacity of prime orbits,” NorthStar CEO Stewart Bain said.
Low Earth orbit is densely packed, with narrow bands dedicated to satellites. For example, Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite system operates at an altitude of 540km to 570km.
As of Wednesday last week, Starlink had 6,764 satellites in orbit, data from Jonathan’s Space Report showed.
SpaceX data showed Starlink satellites performed nearly 50,000 collision-avoidance maneuvers in the first half of the year, about double the previous six months.
SpaceX did not respond to a Reuters request for comment.
The European Space Agency, which has fewer spacecraft than SpaceX, in 2021 said its maneuvers had increased to three or four times per craft compared to a historical average of one.
The 800km to 900km band contains fewer satellites, but has 3,114 objects — including operational and non-operational payloads, rocket bodies and fragments — which make up 20 percent of the total mass of objects in low Earth orbit, posing significant collision risk, LeoLabs data showed.
Expired satellites add to the clutter, as they stay in orbit until they fall into — and burn up in — Earth’s atmosphere years later or are flown to a “graveyard orbit” some 36,000km away.
Russia drew global criticism in November 2021 when it test fired a missile at a defunct satellite in orbit, creating thousands of fragments of debris. Russia invaded Ukraine three months after the test.
“The potential for conflicts between states has been on a steep rise in the recent past. If these extend to space, it could complicate the outer space environment. We urgently need common global rules for coordination,” said Anirudh Sharma, CEO of Bengaluru-based Digantara, which specializes in space situational awareness.
Holla-Maini, whose office serves as secretariat for the Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space, said the October panel aimed to bring together public and private sector experts to outline steps needed to start work on coordination. It is to present its findings at a committee meeting next year.
Global cooperation is essential to developing enforceable rules akin to those used by the International Civil Aviation Organization for air traffic, industry experts said.
Such effort would involve the use of existing tools, such as databases, telescopes, radars and other sensors, to track objects while improving coverage, early detection and data precision. Yet geopolitical tensions and reluctance to share data with nations deemed unfriendly, as well as commercial concerns over protecting proprietary information and competitive advantages, remain significant barriers.
That leaves operators of orbital equipment relying on informal or semi-formal methods of avoiding collisions, such as drawing on data from the US Space Force or groups such as the Space Data Association. However, that can involve issues such as accountability and inconsistent data standards.
“The top challenges are speed — as consensus-building takes time — and trust,” Holla-Maini said. “Some countries simply can’t communicate with others, but the UN can facilitate this process. Speed is our biggest enemy, but there’s no alternative. It must be done.”
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