US foreign policy analysts have accused Taiwan of not doing enough to deter China, citing insufficient defense spending and policy incoherence, but these criticisms rarely translate into meaningful action, while US officials talk big and engage in provocative and symbolic actions.
Affirming ties with Taiwan is fine, but talk is cheap, and with ongoing conflicts elsewhere drawing attention away from East Asia, the region is left without leadership in the face of increasing Chinese aggression. So how might US president-elect Donald Trump turn things around for Taiwan? Trump’s NATO policy serves as a good example.
Prior to Trump’s first presidential term, most NATO members did not meet the alliance’s defense spending guidelines, while the US carried the bulk of the burden. Nobody in Washington was willing to pressure US allies, so there was no political will in Europe to step up.
Trump’s antagonistic rhetoric generated that will, and by the time he left office in 2021, NATO member states’ defense spending had risen considerably.
Unfortunately, this was not enough. Europe’s resistance to increased defense spending sent a message of unseriousness to Russia. Had Trump secured a second term in 2020, continued efforts at burden sharing might have deterred Russia from invading Ukraine.
The idea that the US would always be there to protect Taiwan has turned China’s threat into an abstract one, placing it in a much further time horizon in the minds of Taiwanese and the leadership. Thus, there has been little political will to enact meaningful changes.
However, this is not to say that nothing has been done. Taiwan has increased the length of conscription from four months to one year, but critics have said that this means very little when the conscripts are poorly trained and undisciplined.
Taiwan has also bolstered its indigenous arms industry, rolling out its first domestically produced submarine prototype, the Hai Kun (海鯤), this year. The Hai Kun is undergoing sea trials and is expected to be delivered next year, with a seven more submarines to be built from next year to 2038 if the submarine budget is approved by legislators.
However, while these efforts are laudable, they are insufficient, and until there are incentives to act, Taiwan would continue to do the bare minimum.
Just as Trump pressured NATO members to play a bigger role in their defense, he would likewise pressure Taiwan, and if Taiwanese leadership is wise, they would use this as an opportunity to act.
US President Joe Biden’s administration over-promised and under-delivered for Taiwan.
The Biden administration’s failure to deter wars, such as in Europe and the Middle East, and the US’ response have also placed the US and its allies in an unprecedented position of weakness by pushing Russia, China and Iran closer together. It defied the foundational principle of US foreign policy since before World War II of preventing the rise of a Eurasian hegemon.
Trump recognizes the crucial role that Russia can play in the US’ strategy to contain China. His peace plans in Ukraine and the Middle East stand to, at the very least, prevent further anti-Western balancing in Eurasia, forcing Beijing to divert its attention away from the Taiwan Strait, and enabling the US and its allies to fortify their positions.
Trump would subject Taiwan to a rapid defense conditioning program, which might be difficult over the short term, but would pay dividends in the long run.
When the stakes of inaction are as high as they are right now, Trump is exactly what Taiwan needs to generate the political will to act.
Jack Burns is a graduate student at National Chengchi University.
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