US president-elect Donald Trump is to return to the White House in January, but his second term would surely be different from the first. His Cabinet would not include former US secretary of state Mike Pompeo and former US national security adviser John Bolton, both outspoken supporters of Taiwan.
Trump is expected to implement a transactionalist approach to Taiwan, including measures such as demanding that Taiwan pay a high “protection fee” or requiring that Taiwan’s military spending amount to at least 10 percent of its GDP.
However, if the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) invades Taiwan, it is doubtful that Trump would dispatch US troops in its defense.
He has also vowed to repeal subsidies for the construction of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC) factories in the US and impose heavy tariffs on Taiwanese chips.
Trump’s policies, whether with regard to national security or the economy, would prove detrimental to Taiwan.
In light of this, Taiwan should take the following measures in response to Trump’s proposed policies:
First, to address national defense and US-Taiwan economic issues, President William Lai’s (賴清德) administration should make use of the US Congress, prominent think tanks, public opinion and other channels.
The government can approach the issues from angles of economic benefits and transactionalism — which Trump cares about the most — and allow him to understand one thing clearly.
Should his new policies cause Taiwan to be invaded by the CCP, it would harm US strategic interests and severely affect the US economy and industrial development, resulting in global economic damage, all costs that the US cannot afford.
Regarding the globalized economy, Taiwan holds a strategic position between the two main maritime passages connecting Northeast Asia and the South China Sea. The South China Sea is the primary energy supply route for Northeast Asian countries and an important shipping route to Europe and Africa. It is the maritime transportation and communications route maintaining Japan’s lifeline.
Taiwan is also an indispensable transit hub connecting Japan to India — Japan’s promotion of a high-tech corridor between New Delhi and Mumbai would be difficult to implement without Taiwan’s participation.
Additionally, Taiwan’s leading position in global high-tech industries allows it to provide the US with 90 percent of its low-cost, advanced chips. The US knows well that it would be unable to operate without Taiwan.
If Trump’s negligence results in a CCP invasion of Taiwan, the US and global economies would suffer heavy consequences; it could lead to a 2 percent or more decline in GDP. Japan’s maritime defense line and the shipping routes between Japan and Europe would fall into China’s hands. Furthermore, it would be a major hit to US strategic and economic interests in the Asia-Pacific region.
Such severe repercussions far outweigh the economic benefits Trump might gain from forcing Taiwan to pay a “protection fee.” The president-elect himself must consider them carefully.
Taiwan must make Trump understand that it is more vital than Ukraine and must not be abandoned. Without diligent Taiwanese working late into the night researching and manufacturing chips, or Taiwan’s important economic and strategic position in aiding and safeguarding US economic and industrial development, US strength and prosperity would be compromised.
Taiwan must stand tall and demand that Trump not force the country into excessive defense spending to prevent significant strain on social welfare and other public works. Otherwise, it could result in an opportunity for the CCP and greatly damage the US economy.
Taiwan is already gradually raising defense spending and would continue to pursue military procurement from the US. The government should take advantage of this opportunity to request the US sale of F-35 stealth jets, Aegis-capable ships, nuclear submarines and other advanced weapons.
The US does not have troops stationed in Taiwan, so it should not collect “protection fees.” Taiwan protects US economic and strategic interests. The US and Taiwan have a mutually beneficial — not unilateral — relationship.
If Trump wants Taiwan to pay a “protection fee,” Taiwan would gladly sign a mutual defense treaty with the US. Under such an agreement, the US could station troops in Taiwan in exchange for a defense fee.
The government should make Trump understand that Taiwan has not stolen the US’ semiconductor business. It is Taiwan’s contribution of advanced chips to US companies such as Nvidia and Apple that allows the US high-tech industry and economy to prosper.
If Trump insists on imposing tariffs on Taiwanese chips or cutting subsidies for the construction of TSMC fabs, the US’ high-tech industry, economy, national defense industry, auto industry and other sectors would be severely affected. It would ultimately be damaging for the US.
The Trump administration should think carefully before proceeding with its proposed Taiwan policies. Having just won the election, now is the perfect time for Trump and his incoming administration to make some necessary adjustments to avoid harming the US and others.
Michael Lin is a retired diplomat, formerly posted in the US.
Translated by Kyra Gustavsen
Trying to force a partnership between Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC) and Intel Corp would be a wildly complex ordeal. Already, the reported request from the Trump administration for TSMC to take a controlling stake in Intel’s US factories is facing valid questions about feasibility from all sides. Washington would likely not support a foreign company operating Intel’s domestic factories, Reuters reported — just look at how that is going over in the steel sector. Meanwhile, many in Taiwan are concerned about the company being forced to transfer its bleeding-edge tech capabilities and give up its strategic advantage. This is especially
US President Donald Trump’s second administration has gotten off to a fast start with a blizzard of initiatives focused on domestic commitments made during his campaign. His tariff-based approach to re-ordering global trade in a manner more favorable to the United States appears to be in its infancy, but the significant scale and scope are undeniable. That said, while China looms largest on the list of national security challenges, to date we have heard little from the administration, bar the 10 percent tariffs directed at China, on specific priorities vis-a-vis China. The Congressional hearings for President Trump’s cabinet have, so far,
The US Department of State has removed the phrase “we do not support Taiwan independence” in its updated Taiwan-US relations fact sheet, which instead iterates that “we expect cross-strait differences to be resolved by peaceful means, free from coercion, in a manner acceptable to the people on both sides of the Strait.” This shows a tougher stance rejecting China’s false claims of sovereignty over Taiwan. Since switching formal diplomatic recognition from the Republic of China to the People’s Republic of China in 1979, the US government has continually indicated that it “does not support Taiwan independence.” The phrase was removed in 2022
US President Donald Trump, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth have each given their thoughts on Russia’s war with Ukraine. There are a few proponents of US skepticism in Taiwan taking advantage of developments to write articles claiming that the US would arbitrarily abandon Ukraine. The reality is that when one understands Trump’s negotiating habits, one sees that he brings up all variables of a situation prior to discussion, using broad negotiations to take charge. As for his ultimate goals and the aces up his sleeve, he wants to keep things vague for
RSS