On Oct. 17, the National Development Council released its latest population projections. The predictions, while expected, are not good.
The nation’s population is projected to continue to decline, moving Taiwan into a “super-aged” society next year.
In 1970, the population was 14.7 million, compared with more than 23 million today. By 2060, this figure is projected to fall to 17.4 million.
Population decline is a serious problem that has been long in the making and has long-term implications. These will arise even if the government can turn the ship around at this late juncture, which does not seem to be happening.
The nuances of the problem can be seen not in population figures or even the dependency ratio — expressed as the number of dependents per 100 people in the working population — but at the interplay of the child dependency ratio — referring to the non-working age group of 0-15 — and the old-age dependency ratio — the non-working age group of those aged 65 or older — because of the stresses they place on the system and the challenges solutions entail.
The overall dependency ratio was 74.2 in 1970. It is projected to be 46.3 next year and 102.2 in 2060.
That is, it has been declining, but is set to increase in the next few decades.
A distinction must be drawn between the two dependency ratios. In 1970, the child dependency ratio was 69.08, compared with 5.08 for old-age dependency, ie, there were proportionally more children and fewer elderly people.
The projection for 2060 reverses that: The child dependency ratio is to plummet to 14.94, while the old-age dependency ratio is to jump to 87.28.
These figures do not exist in isolation, neither is the population the salient point. Rather, they tell a story of massive and long-term social transformation that will need to be addressed.
The transformation will require services and institutions to find solutions to evolving needs as they provide an emphasis on childcare and schools, more resources for long-term and palliative care, implement radical changes in priorities in healthcare provision and hospital training, as well as ways to mitigate increased strain on the National Health Insurance system.
Yet another element is regional differences. Ministry of the Interior data on local demographics show differences in the proportion of the elderly people by region: The 65-or-older age group is greater than 20 percent in Taipei and Keelung, as well as Chiayi, Nantou, Yunlin, Pingtung and Hualien counties, making them officially “super-aged,” while the ratios in Hsinchu County, Hsinchu City, Lienchiang County and Taoyuan were only 14.25 percent, 15.06 percent, 15.4 percent and 15.48 percent respectively.
Historically, it seems that governments in Asia have had considerable more success in discouraging couples to have children than encouraging parenthood: China has ended its one-child policy, but Chinese couples have not responded to state efforts to encourage them to procreate. In post-World War II Japan, Tokyo promoted contraception and decriminalized abortion to curb population growth, but encouraging childbirth is a more challenging proposition. In the 1970s, South Korea legalized abortion, but is now struggling to address one of the lowest birthrates in the world.
Promoting childbirth is also an uphill struggle in Taiwan. The problem is that demographic changes are measured in decades, not years, and the nation is in the middle of a switch of the two dependency rates — nationally and regionally. The government must address the social challenges of this demographic transformation, not merely the fertility rate.
Recently, the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) hastily pushed amendments to the Act Governing the Allocation of Government Revenues and Expenditures (財政收支劃分法) through the Legislative Yuan, sparking widespread public concern. The legislative process was marked by opaque decisionmaking and expedited proceedings, raising alarms about its potential impact on the economy, national defense, and international standing. Those amendments prioritize short-term political gains at the expense of long-term national security and development. The amendments mandate that the central government transfer about NT$375.3 billion (US$11.47 billion) annually to local governments. While ostensibly aimed at enhancing local development, the lack
Having enjoyed contributing regular essays to the Liberty Times and Taipei Times now for several years, I feel it is time to pull back. As some of my readers know, I have enjoyed a decades-long relationship with Taiwan. My most recent visit was just a few months ago, when I was invited to deliver a keynote speech at a major conference in Taipei. Unfortunately, my trip intersected with Double Ten celebrations, so I missed the opportunity to call on friends in government, as well as colleagues in the new AIT building, that replaced the old Xin-yi Road complex. I have
Former US president Jimmy Carter’s legacy regarding Taiwan is a complex tapestry woven with decisions that, while controversial, were instrumental in shaping the nation’s path and its enduring relationship with the US. As the world reflects on Carter’s life and his recent passing at the age of 100, his presidency marked a transformative era in Taiwan-US-China relations, particularly through the landmark decision in 1978 to formally recognize the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as the sole legal government of China, effectively derecognizing the Republic of China (ROC) based in Taiwan. That decision continues to influence geopolitical dynamics and Taiwan’s unique
Former president Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) — who once endured the hardship of living under an authoritarian political system and arduously led a quiet revolution — once said: “Democratic issues must be solved with democratic means.” Today, as Taiwanese are faced with the malicious subversion of our country’s democratic constitutional order, we must not panic. Rather, we should start by taking democratic action to rescue the Constitutional Court. As Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) caucus whip Fu Kun-chi (傅?萁) leads the KMT and the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) in strangling Taiwan’s judiciary and depriving individuals of the right to recall and development, Taiwanese