A potential victory of former US president Donald Trump and economic troubles at home have prompted China to embark on a charm offensive, particularly with US allies and partners.
From proclaiming a desired “fresh start” with Japan to a detente with India, Chinese officials have sought to dial down diplomatic friction days ahead of the US presidential election. Beijing has also signaled its intent to improve ties with the UK and Australia, a seeming departure from the kind of combative diplomacy it became famous for during Trump’s first term.
The diplomatic overtures underscore changing political calculations by Beijing — and its counterparts — in anticipation of a possible return of an unpredictable US president. They might help China buffer against economic turbulence from a man who has vowed to impose tariffs at levels that would decimate commerce between the top powers and levied trade threats even at his country’s allies.
Illustration: Yusha
“China has been unusually solicitous in trying to settle or improve relations with numerous countries over the last month,” said Richard McGregor, senior fellow for East Asia at the Lowy Institute think tank in Sydney.
“Beijing is looking for friends and partners amidst any Trumpian chaos,” McGregor said.
Illustrating this shift, China reached a breakthrough with India on Monday last week with an agreement to resume patroling operations over the disputed Himalayan border. The deal ended a four-year standoff with India and raised the prospect for the South Asian nation to eventually ease punitive measures on Chinese businesses.
Two days later, Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi held their first formal meeting since 2022 on the sidelines of the BRICS summit of emerging economies in Russia, where the leaders pledged to stabilize relations.
“The two sides should strengthen communication and cooperation, properly manage differences and disagreements,” Xi was quoted as saying by Chinese state broadcaster China Central Television.
The detente also reflects other nations’ efforts to adjust to a world of rising trade barriers. A willingness among developing nations to shore up ties with China is driven in part by their own desire to hedge against increasingly protectionist US policy, said Henry Wang Huiyao (王輝耀), founder of the Center for China and Globalization research group in Beijing.
“There is a push-and-pull effect. The US scapegoating other nations is pushing countries away,” he said, referring to Trump’s threats of across-the-board tariffs on Washington’s allies and adversaries after blaming them for the US’ domestic economic woes.
Latest polls show the presidential contest between Trump and Democratic candidate US Vice President Kamala Harris could hardly be tighter, with razor-thin margins in each of the seven swing states.
China’s trade relationships would face further scrutiny at a series of global forums hosted in Latin America days after the US election next month, including the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation and G20 summits.
Improved ties have already paid off for some of China’s trade partners. Australia’s wine exports jumped by more than a third this year, boosted by an increase in shipments to the Asian nation after the countries ended a spat over Canberra’s support for a probe of origins of COVID-19.
Japan’s seafood exports could be the next beneficiary. After banning those products and protesting Tokyo’s discharge of treated wastewater from a crippled nuclear power plant, Beijing last month reached a deal with Tokyo that would pave the way for a lifting of the restrictions.
When senior-level German and Chinese officials met earlier this month, Beijing was also demonstrably interested in expressing its desire to collaborate, a European official said.
Any improved ties might help China offset the prospect of worsening tensions with the US and EU, which voted earlier this month to impose tariffs as high as 45 percent on electric vehicles from China. In response, Beijing is pressuring Chinese vehicle manufacturers to pause expansion in the EU, Bloomberg previously reported.
US-China ties, too, have stabilized over the past year, even as major divisions persist over issues including Taiwan, the South China Sea and US President Joe Biden’s export controls on advanced chips and other technology.
US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, who has had many hours of high-level meetings with his Chinese counterparts this year, in August said China recognizes that elections and transitions are “sensitive periods” and seeks to manage ties responsibly.
Beijing has been the main driver of the diplomatic push, said Yun Sun (孫韻), director of the China program at the Stimson Center in Washington, who called it a “charm offensive.”
In China, Beijing’s push to repair longstanding diplomatic feuds has raised expectations for a favorable response in return. Guancha.cn, a Chinese nationalist news Web site, took note of warming ties with Australia in a recent commentary and said Canberra has not imposed any tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles out of national security concerns, unlike the US and EU.
Still, these warming ties are unlikely to translate into long-term shifts on core issues. China has maintained a tough stance on its claims on Taiwan and South China Sea even as it seeks to calm trade tensions.
Improved trade relations have not shifted Australia’s fundamental security priorities either. The country’s defense industry minister on Tuesday announced a US$4.7 billion deal to acquire US precision missiles, warning of “the greatest arms race” in the region since 1945.
In India, officials said suspicion of China remains deep and it is unclear how far it would loosen rules for Chinese investment.
They also said the move to improve ties is aimed at strengthening India’s economy over the long haul rather than making a strategic shift to turn its back on the US-backed Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, which also includes Japan and Australia.
Nevertheless, improved ties with its neighbors would give China more freedom of action and options, National University of Singapore academic Ja Ian Chong (莊嘉穎) said.
It comes as China’s economy grew at its slowest pace since early last year and Beijing seeks to revive growth with a forceful policy package.
“Given its domestic economic challenges and a desire to woo foreign investment, it is unsurprising that Beijing is trying to smooth over ties with key neighbors who happen to be important economic partners,” Chong said.
Public health is one of Taiwan’s greatest strengths. Its National Health Insurance was already one of the best single-payer systems in the world, ensuring that everyone has coverage while staying nimble in the face of financial challenges. The COVID-19 pandemic was a chance for the world to see Taiwan’s full public health apparatus at work. Officials caught wind of a strange virus circulating in China and jumped to screen and then stem the flow of travelers before the word “coronavirus” even made headlines. It was one of the only countries in the world to escape widespread transmission before vaccines were distributed,
The Chinese Ministry of Commerce on Oct. 12 announced that it would consider adopting further measures in response to Taiwan’s trade barriers on certain goods from China, based on the findings of an investigation it launched late last year. The measures could include tariffs or other forms of economic pressure. The announcement is yet another political move by Beijing that is more declarative than substantive. The timing was not coincidental, as it came shortly after President William Lai (賴清德) delivered his first Double Ten National Day speech after taking office on May 20, which was moderate on the cross-strait relationship,
On Monday morning last week, many Chinese investors woke up anticipating a raft of new stimulus measures to save the Chinese economy during an official Chinese Communist Party (CCP) news conference. Instead, by about 5am the CCP had launched military exercises surrounding Taiwan. State media announced that China would “completely reunify” Taiwan with its “ancestral homeland.” The refurbished Liaoning aircraft carrier, which had only days prior returned to its home berth at Yuchi Naval Base in China’s Shandong Province, was rushed back out to sea to traverse the Bashi Channel separating Taiwan and the Philippines to take its position for the exercises. The
China’s “Joint Sword-2024B” military exercises around Taiwan last week have sparked concerns in Taipei and allied capitals that Beijing’s risk tolerance is increasing, and rather than prioritizing efforts toward “peaceful unification,” it is ramping up efforts to bring about unification by force, whether that be a military quarantine, blockade or full-scale invasion. Catherine Lila Chou (周怡齡) and Mark Harrison are right in their recent book Revolutionary Taiwan: Making Nationhood in a Changing World Order that the nature of Beijing’s one-party political system, in which the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is always right, means Taiwanese identity is explained away as being the