Taiwan is grappling with a looming demographic crisis that threatens its social, economic and national security. Having transitioned to an “aged society” in 2018, where more than 14 percent of the population is 65 or older, Taiwan is set to become a “super-aged society” by next year, according to National Development Council projections.
This places Taiwan alongside countries like Japan, Italy and Germany that are already facing similar aging challenges. Unlike other developed nations grappling with aging populations, Taiwan’s demographic shift directly impacts its ability to maintain a sustainable defense force. The decline in military-aged men severely limits Taiwan’s capacity to defend itself. While technological advances like uncrewed systems and robotics offer potential solutions, they cannot fully compensate for the reduction in the male population.
In some countries, such as New Zealand and Australia, military service is a pathway to citizenship. Singapore, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar have also been recruiting foreign nationals for their military and police forces for years. Taiwan might need to consider such an approach. This could help supplement its declining military ranks and workforce, providing a short-term fix to a problem that has no easy solution.
However, significant immigration reform would be required to make this feasible, which Taiwan has shown little interest in pursuing.
Many countries have turned to immigration as a short-term solution to workforce shortages, but Taiwan has been hesitant to follow suit. Like Japan and South Korea, Taiwan’s cultural and political landscape makes it resistant to large-scale immigration.
Recent government efforts to attract foreign talent have been hindered by strict immigration regulations and a lack of political will for reform. This reluctance limits Taiwan’s ability to address its demographic decline in the short term. Taiwan’s restrictive citizenship policies and the social resistance to welcoming more immigrants have compounded the challenge, leaving few options to counter the demographic decline.
Japan has turned to robotics to address its labor shortage and its success in integrating robotic technology into daily life is often highlighted as a model for other aging nations. South Korea is also further ahead than Taiwan in employing robotics to combat the effects of its aging population.
Ironically, despite being a global high-tech powerhouse, Taiwan’s adoption of robotics remains relatively limited and it might take a while before such solutions can effectively address the labor shortage.
The aging population is also straining Taiwan’s healthcare system. The National Health Insurance program, which provides universal coverage, is highly regarded, but its sustainability is at risk. As the population ages, healthcare costs are rising. Taiwan is already experiencing a shortage of medical professionals. Low reimbursement rates, long working hours, and government quotas on the number of doctors and nurses have created a significant healthcare gap that is only expected to worsen.
Economic factors further contribute to Taiwan’s demographic crisis. Housing prices have skyrocketed, with Taiwan fourth on the Global House Price Index. Coupled with stagnant wages and a non-labor-friendly work culture, the affordability crisis has made it difficult for young people to prioritize marriage and starting families. As a result, Taiwan’s birthrate has plummeted to one of the lowest in the world.
Although the government has introduced pro-natalist policies, such as child allowances and fertility treatment subsidies, they have only produced temporary improvements in the birthrates.
The challenge is twofold: Declining birthrates and resistance to immigration are driving rapid aging, which in turn is harming economic sustainability and national security.
While aging populations are a common feature of developed nations, Taiwan’s demographic crisis is made more complex by its geopolitical situation and cultural resistance to immigration. As the country prepares to enter the “super-aged society” category, it must navigate these challenges carefully to avoid exacerbating its already precarious position in the face of China’s growing influence and the pressures of maintaining its economic and national security.
Harun Talha Ayanoglu is a research associate at the Taiwan Center for Security Studies.
President Jimmy Carter, who turned 100 years old this month, has not been highly thought of in Taiwan since his 1978 decision to derecognize Taipei as the seat of the “Republic of China.” But with a half-century’s hindsight, President Carter’s derecognition of the ROC, viewed together with his straightforward diplomacy to preserve the full substance of America’s relations with Taiwan, can now be seen in a far more positive light, especially when compared to his predecessors, Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford. In considering Carter’s decisions to recognize the People’s Republic of China as the “sole legal government of China” and break
Public health is one of Taiwan’s greatest strengths. Its National Health Insurance was already one of the best single-payer systems in the world, ensuring that everyone has coverage while staying nimble in the face of financial challenges. The COVID-19 pandemic was a chance for the world to see Taiwan’s full public health apparatus at work. Officials caught wind of a strange virus circulating in China and jumped to screen and then stem the flow of travelers before the word “coronavirus” even made headlines. It was one of the only countries in the world to escape widespread transmission before vaccines were distributed,
Four days after Double Ten National Day, China announced a new round of military exercises around Taiwan titled “Joint Sword-2024B.” As the name implies, Monday’s exercises are a follow-up to its “Joint Sword-2024A” exercises in May, which were ostensibly a response to the content of President William Lai’s (賴清德) inauguration speech, but, as the title suggests, were intended to routinize large-scale military exercises around Taiwan. International observers in general viewed Lai’s National Day speech as restrained and measured. “Lai’s speech demonstrated restraint, refraining from breaking new ground, repeating well-known positions,” Council on Foreign Relations research fellow David Sacks said. These exercises
The Chinese Ministry of Commerce on Oct. 12 announced that it would consider adopting further measures in response to Taiwan’s trade barriers on certain goods from China, based on the findings of an investigation it launched late last year. The measures could include tariffs or other forms of economic pressure. The announcement is yet another political move by Beijing that is more declarative than substantive. The timing was not coincidental, as it came shortly after President William Lai (賴清德) delivered his first Double Ten National Day speech after taking office on May 20, which was moderate on the cross-strait relationship,