The Double Ten National Day ceremonies have been concluded. President William Lai (賴清德) gave his first National Day address and dignitaries from abroad presented their congratulations. The perfunctory wining and dining has ended, but not to be outdone, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) showed its displeasure with a simulated blockade of Taiwan.
So what next?
The future always has its uncertainties, but for Lai, three necessary steps stand out to demand his focus.
First, Lai must regain the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) majority in the Legislative Yuan. He must find a way to win back the votes of the seats that the party lost by finding common ground for cooperation.
That path is quite well laid out. The seats were lost when a sizeable number of voters grew tired of the unproductive bickering between the two major parties and sought a third voice, the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP).
Unfortunately, the TPP did not live up to that hope. It not only did not live up to that hope, but it is now dead in the water.
For those who follow Taiwanese politics closely, the TPP was already in danger after the last election. In that election it failed to win any local legislative seats; instead it had only achieved eight legislator-at-large positions, and if that was not bad enough, those legislators quickly proved to be unproductive.
Instead of coming up with programs that could justify why voters sought a third party, they simply became running dogs for the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT). Taiwan was back in its former quagmire.
Such actions by the TPP proved to be a betrayal, especially for the young. They had sought a new voice to counter the unproductive major parties. It did not happen.
Now that TPP Chairman Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) faces charges of corruption, those that hoped for change must look elsewhere. The TPP is dead in the water; it has no future. Its legislators must choose which major party they side with for future change.
Winning their support presents a clear challenge, but also a golden opportunity for the DPP to regain what it lost. It will not be easy, but it is the needed direction and focus that Lai must take if he is to accomplish anything significant as president. Without a majority in the legislature, it cannot be done.
Next, Lai must look outward to Taiwan’s regional needs. Here he must seek to strengthen Taiwan’s alliances, particularly with the Philippines and Japan.
Any and all regional alliances can be beneficial, but those with the Philippines and Japan are crucial. These two nations guard Taiwan’s flanks.
Across the Taiwan Strait, the PRC continues with its hegemonic ambitions; most recently in the South China Sea it has upped its efforts in harassing the Philippines.
Taiwan stands as the lynchpin between the South and East China seas; it also stands between China’s direct route to the Pacific. That route must pass between Taiwan and the Philippines or Taiwan and Japan. This mutual need must be obvious to all three.
The Philippines has constantly had its sovereignty challenged by the PRC in the South China Sea; it needs a supportive neighbor. Japan needs a free Taiwan Strait so that its trade, which passes through the South China Sea, is not interrupted.
Japan has already begun promoting a type of Asian NATO to counter China, while the Philippines has gone as far as to seek an alliance with South Korea.
The needs are there. A free and democratic Taiwan provides regional stability and Lai can easily build on this base for the safety of Taiwan.
With control of the legislature and regional stability, Lai can then focus on other pressing domestic challenges.
From industry to banking to military conscription, Lai has a laundry list of challenges to choose from. Many of course are problems not only for Taiwan, but also the rest of the world.
One problem that Taiwan has long recognized is that of its aging population. This is not only a national issue; it is one that is increasingly gaining worldwide attention. In this matter, Japan, Taiwan’s immediate neighbor, is in even more dire straits.
What makes aging a natural for Taiwan is that it is not an isolated issue. Its solution involves other issues such as the economy. To solve the aging problem a younger workforce must be developed and strong enough to sustain a greater number at the top. This in turn involves bringing in immigrant workers from surrounding nations.
These three steps might seem simple, but they are in truth formidable challenges. If Lai can solve them, he would be guaranteed success.
Jerome Keating is a writer based in Taipei.
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