The contest for leadership of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) officially launched on Thursday. An unprecedented nine candidates are vying for the top position, but only a few have strong prospects. The top three candidates are Shinjiro Koizumi, Shigeru Ishiba and Sanae Takaichi, recent opinion polls showed.
Koizumi, known for his unconventional approach, stands out as a fresh and sincere face in Japan’s factional politics. A media favorite, he has been regarded as a rising star from an early age and nicknamed the “Japanese Macron.” Not only does he possess youth and good looks, but also eloquence.
Koizumi’s only Cabinet experience was two years as the environment minister from 2019 to 2021. During a news conference announcing his candidacy, some expressed doubts about his lack of experience and ability to handle major responsibilities. Koizumi responded calmly, acknowledging his shortcomings, while adding that he would build the best possible party to address those gaps and do everything he could to assure the public.
His humble and receptive attitude was well-received.
Ishiba, on the other hand, has extensive experience in major political and governmental roles. He has contested the leadership role four times, all resulting in defeat. His past rivals have included former prime ministers Taro Aso, Shinzo Abe — on two occasions — and Yoshihide Suga.
Nearly half of the National Diet have opposed him in the past, so it is almost certain that he would not win should he reach the final stage of the election.
Takaichi also has extensive political and administrative experience. She has been a staunch advocate of Taiwan from the beginning of her career. A strong and unyielding figure, she does not shy away from her right-wing reputation.
The focal point of the election would be whether the principle that a Taiwan contingency is an issue for Japan could be formally implemented as policy. That would depend on whether the candidates hesitate to directly address issues with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) for fear of causing greater harm.
Among the candidates, only Takaichi, Koizumi and former economic security minister Takayuki Kobayashi have shown a willingness to face the CCP head-on by visiting the Yasukuni Shrine — a World War II memorial site controversial for its inclusion of Japanese war criminals that China has previously objected to — prior to Aug. 15.
Koizumi even went so far as to publicly share photographs of his visit, signaling his intention to cooperate with conservatives.
Due to fragmentation among conservatives following Abe’s assassination, a strong supporter of Takaichi, the 11 remaining members of the “Abe faction” and three members of the “Aso faction” have endorsed Kobayashi’s candidacy. With the conservative base loosening, Takaichi would likely struggle to advance past the first round of the election.
The decisive battle would likely be between Koizumi and Ishiba. Suga has expressed support for Koizumi. With the added endorsements of his father, former prime minister Junichiro Koizumi, along with former prime ministers Yoshiro Mori and Ishiba’s rival Aso, Shinjiro Koizumi enjoys an exceptional advantage with a motto touting unity of diverse perspectives.
By contrast, Ishiba — whose campaign slogan is that vultures do not flock together — appears isolated and might struggle to pose a significant challenge.
If Shinjiro Koizumi unites the different factions of the LDP and makes his way to the top, it could mark a generational shift in the party, potentially leading to the end of factional politics and a rebirth of the LDP.
Wang Hui-sheng is chief director of the Kisei Ladies’ and Children’s Hospital in Japan and a founding member of the East Asian Research Institute.
Translated by Kyra Gustavsen
Concerns that the US might abandon Taiwan are often overstated. While US President Donald Trump’s handling of Ukraine raised unease in Taiwan, it is crucial to recognize that Taiwan is not Ukraine. Under Trump, the US views Ukraine largely as a European problem, whereas the Indo-Pacific region remains its primary geopolitical focus. Taipei holds immense strategic value for Washington and is unlikely to be treated as a bargaining chip in US-China relations. Trump’s vision of “making America great again” would be directly undermined by any move to abandon Taiwan. Despite the rhetoric of “America First,” the Trump administration understands the necessity of
In an article published on this page on Tuesday, Kaohsiung-based journalist Julien Oeuillet wrote that “legions of people worldwide would care if a disaster occurred in South Korea or Japan, but the same people would not bat an eyelid if Taiwan disappeared.” That is quite a statement. We are constantly reading about the importance of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC), hailed in Taiwan as the nation’s “silicon shield” protecting it from hostile foreign forces such as the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and so crucial to the global supply chain for semiconductors that its loss would cost the global economy US$1
US President Donald Trump’s challenge to domestic American economic-political priorities, and abroad to the global balance of power, are not a threat to the security of Taiwan. Trump’s success can go far to contain the real threat — the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) surge to hegemony — while offering expanded defensive opportunities for Taiwan. In a stunning affirmation of the CCP policy of “forceful reunification,” an obscene euphemism for the invasion of Taiwan and the destruction of its democracy, on March 13, 2024, the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) used Chinese social media platforms to show the first-time linkage of three new
Sasha B. Chhabra’s column (“Michelle Yeoh should no longer be welcome,” March 26, page 8) lamented an Instagram post by renowned actress Michelle Yeoh (楊紫瓊) about her recent visit to “Taipei, China.” It is Chhabra’s opinion that, in response to parroting Beijing’s propaganda about the status of Taiwan, Yeoh should be banned from entering this nation and her films cut off from funding by government-backed agencies, as well as disqualified from competing in the Golden Horse Awards. She and other celebrities, he wrote, must be made to understand “that there are consequences for their actions if they become political pawns of
RSS