The contest for leadership of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) officially launched on Thursday. An unprecedented nine candidates are vying for the top position, but only a few have strong prospects. The top three candidates are Shinjiro Koizumi, Shigeru Ishiba and Sanae Takaichi, recent opinion polls showed.
Koizumi, known for his unconventional approach, stands out as a fresh and sincere face in Japan’s factional politics. A media favorite, he has been regarded as a rising star from an early age and nicknamed the “Japanese Macron.” Not only does he possess youth and good looks, but also eloquence.
Koizumi’s only Cabinet experience was two years as the environment minister from 2019 to 2021. During a news conference announcing his candidacy, some expressed doubts about his lack of experience and ability to handle major responsibilities. Koizumi responded calmly, acknowledging his shortcomings, while adding that he would build the best possible party to address those gaps and do everything he could to assure the public.
His humble and receptive attitude was well-received.
Ishiba, on the other hand, has extensive experience in major political and governmental roles. He has contested the leadership role four times, all resulting in defeat. His past rivals have included former prime ministers Taro Aso, Shinzo Abe — on two occasions — and Yoshihide Suga.
Nearly half of the National Diet have opposed him in the past, so it is almost certain that he would not win should he reach the final stage of the election.
Takaichi also has extensive political and administrative experience. She has been a staunch advocate of Taiwan from the beginning of her career. A strong and unyielding figure, she does not shy away from her right-wing reputation.
The focal point of the election would be whether the principle that a Taiwan contingency is an issue for Japan could be formally implemented as policy. That would depend on whether the candidates hesitate to directly address issues with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) for fear of causing greater harm.
Among the candidates, only Takaichi, Koizumi and former economic security minister Takayuki Kobayashi have shown a willingness to face the CCP head-on by visiting the Yasukuni Shrine — a World War II memorial site controversial for its inclusion of Japanese war criminals that China has previously objected to — prior to Aug. 15.
Koizumi even went so far as to publicly share photographs of his visit, signaling his intention to cooperate with conservatives.
Due to fragmentation among conservatives following Abe’s assassination, a strong supporter of Takaichi, the 11 remaining members of the “Abe faction” and three members of the “Aso faction” have endorsed Kobayashi’s candidacy. With the conservative base loosening, Takaichi would likely struggle to advance past the first round of the election.
The decisive battle would likely be between Koizumi and Ishiba. Suga has expressed support for Koizumi. With the added endorsements of his father, former prime minister Junichiro Koizumi, along with former prime ministers Yoshiro Mori and Ishiba’s rival Aso, Shinjiro Koizumi enjoys an exceptional advantage with a motto touting unity of diverse perspectives.
By contrast, Ishiba — whose campaign slogan is that vultures do not flock together — appears isolated and might struggle to pose a significant challenge.
If Shinjiro Koizumi unites the different factions of the LDP and makes his way to the top, it could mark a generational shift in the party, potentially leading to the end of factional politics and a rebirth of the LDP.
Wang Hui-sheng is chief director of the Kisei Ladies’ and Children’s Hospital in Japan and a founding member of the East Asian Research Institute.
Translated by Kyra Gustavsen
US President Donald Trump has gotten off to a head-spinning start in his foreign policy. He has pressured Denmark to cede Greenland to the United States, threatened to take over the Panama Canal, urged Canada to become the 51st US state, unilaterally renamed the Gulf of Mexico to “the Gulf of America” and announced plans for the United States to annex and administer Gaza. He has imposed and then suspended 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico for their roles in the flow of fentanyl into the United States, while at the same time increasing tariffs on China by 10
As an American living in Taiwan, I have to confess how impressed I have been over the years by the Chinese Communist Party’s wholehearted embrace of high-speed rail and electric vehicles, and this at a time when my own democratic country has chosen a leader openly committed to doing everything in his power to put obstacles in the way of sustainable energy across the board — and democracy to boot. It really does make me wonder: “Are those of us right who hold that democracy is the right way to go?” Has Taiwan made the wrong choice? Many in China obviously
US President Donald Trump last week announced plans to impose reciprocal tariffs on eight countries. As Taiwan, a key hub for semiconductor manufacturing, is among them, the policy would significantly affect the country. In response, Minister of Economic Affairs J.W. Kuo (郭智輝) dispatched two officials to the US for negotiations, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co’s (TSMC) board of directors convened its first-ever meeting in the US. Those developments highlight how the US’ unstable trade policies are posing a growing threat to Taiwan. Can the US truly gain an advantage in chip manufacturing by reversing trade liberalization? Is it realistic to
Last week, 24 Republican representatives in the US Congress proposed a resolution calling for US President Donald Trump’s administration to abandon the US’ “one China” policy, calling it outdated, counterproductive and not reflective of reality, and to restore official diplomatic relations with Taiwan, enter bilateral free-trade agreement negotiations and support its entry into international organizations. That is an exciting and inspiring development. To help the US government and other nations further understand that Taiwan is not a part of China, that those “one China” policies are contrary to the fact that the two countries across the Taiwan Strait are independent and
RSS