The contest for leadership of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) officially launched on Thursday. An unprecedented nine candidates are vying for the top position, but only a few have strong prospects. The top three candidates are Shinjiro Koizumi, Shigeru Ishiba and Sanae Takaichi, recent opinion polls showed.
Koizumi, known for his unconventional approach, stands out as a fresh and sincere face in Japan’s factional politics. A media favorite, he has been regarded as a rising star from an early age and nicknamed the “Japanese Macron.” Not only does he possess youth and good looks, but also eloquence.
Koizumi’s only Cabinet experience was two years as the environment minister from 2019 to 2021. During a news conference announcing his candidacy, some expressed doubts about his lack of experience and ability to handle major responsibilities. Koizumi responded calmly, acknowledging his shortcomings, while adding that he would build the best possible party to address those gaps and do everything he could to assure the public.
His humble and receptive attitude was well-received.
Ishiba, on the other hand, has extensive experience in major political and governmental roles. He has contested the leadership role four times, all resulting in defeat. His past rivals have included former prime ministers Taro Aso, Shinzo Abe — on two occasions — and Yoshihide Suga.
Nearly half of the National Diet have opposed him in the past, so it is almost certain that he would not win should he reach the final stage of the election.
Takaichi also has extensive political and administrative experience. She has been a staunch advocate of Taiwan from the beginning of her career. A strong and unyielding figure, she does not shy away from her right-wing reputation.
The focal point of the election would be whether the principle that a Taiwan contingency is an issue for Japan could be formally implemented as policy. That would depend on whether the candidates hesitate to directly address issues with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) for fear of causing greater harm.
Among the candidates, only Takaichi, Koizumi and former economic security minister Takayuki Kobayashi have shown a willingness to face the CCP head-on by visiting the Yasukuni Shrine — a World War II memorial site controversial for its inclusion of Japanese war criminals that China has previously objected to — prior to Aug. 15.
Koizumi even went so far as to publicly share photographs of his visit, signaling his intention to cooperate with conservatives.
Due to fragmentation among conservatives following Abe’s assassination, a strong supporter of Takaichi, the 11 remaining members of the “Abe faction” and three members of the “Aso faction” have endorsed Kobayashi’s candidacy. With the conservative base loosening, Takaichi would likely struggle to advance past the first round of the election.
The decisive battle would likely be between Koizumi and Ishiba. Suga has expressed support for Koizumi. With the added endorsements of his father, former prime minister Junichiro Koizumi, along with former prime ministers Yoshiro Mori and Ishiba’s rival Aso, Shinjiro Koizumi enjoys an exceptional advantage with a motto touting unity of diverse perspectives.
By contrast, Ishiba — whose campaign slogan is that vultures do not flock together — appears isolated and might struggle to pose a significant challenge.
If Shinjiro Koizumi unites the different factions of the LDP and makes his way to the top, it could mark a generational shift in the party, potentially leading to the end of factional politics and a rebirth of the LDP.
Wang Hui-sheng is chief director of the Kisei Ladies’ and Children’s Hospital in Japan and a founding member of the East Asian Research Institute.
Translated by Kyra Gustavsen
Concerns that the US might abandon Taiwan are often overstated. While US President Donald Trump’s handling of Ukraine raised unease in Taiwan, it is crucial to recognize that Taiwan is not Ukraine. Under Trump, the US views Ukraine largely as a European problem, whereas the Indo-Pacific region remains its primary geopolitical focus. Taipei holds immense strategic value for Washington and is unlikely to be treated as a bargaining chip in US-China relations. Trump’s vision of “making America great again” would be directly undermined by any move to abandon Taiwan. Despite the rhetoric of “America First,” the Trump administration understands the necessity of
US President Donald Trump’s challenge to domestic American economic-political priorities, and abroad to the global balance of power, are not a threat to the security of Taiwan. Trump’s success can go far to contain the real threat — the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) surge to hegemony — while offering expanded defensive opportunities for Taiwan. In a stunning affirmation of the CCP policy of “forceful reunification,” an obscene euphemism for the invasion of Taiwan and the destruction of its democracy, on March 13, 2024, the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) used Chinese social media platforms to show the first-time linkage of three new
If you had a vision of the future where China did not dominate the global car industry, you can kiss those dreams goodbye. That is because US President Donald Trump’s promised 25 percent tariff on auto imports takes an ax to the only bits of the emerging electric vehicle (EV) supply chain that are not already dominated by Beijing. The biggest losers when the levies take effect this week would be Japan and South Korea. They account for one-third of the cars imported into the US, and as much as two-thirds of those imported from outside North America. (Mexico and Canada, while
I have heard people equate the government’s stance on resisting forced unification with China or the conditional reinstatement of the military court system with the rise of the Nazis before World War II. The comparison is absurd. There is no meaningful parallel between the government and Nazi Germany, nor does such a mindset exist within the general public in Taiwan. It is important to remember that the German public bore some responsibility for the horrors of the Holocaust. Post-World War II Germany’s transitional justice efforts were rooted in a national reckoning and introspection. Many Jews were sent to concentration camps not
RSS