The contest for leadership of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) officially launched on Thursday. An unprecedented nine candidates are vying for the top position, but only a few have strong prospects. The top three candidates are Shinjiro Koizumi, Shigeru Ishiba and Sanae Takaichi, recent opinion polls showed.
Koizumi, known for his unconventional approach, stands out as a fresh and sincere face in Japan’s factional politics. A media favorite, he has been regarded as a rising star from an early age and nicknamed the “Japanese Macron.” Not only does he possess youth and good looks, but also eloquence.
Koizumi’s only Cabinet experience was two years as the environment minister from 2019 to 2021. During a news conference announcing his candidacy, some expressed doubts about his lack of experience and ability to handle major responsibilities. Koizumi responded calmly, acknowledging his shortcomings, while adding that he would build the best possible party to address those gaps and do everything he could to assure the public.
His humble and receptive attitude was well-received.
Ishiba, on the other hand, has extensive experience in major political and governmental roles. He has contested the leadership role four times, all resulting in defeat. His past rivals have included former prime ministers Taro Aso, Shinzo Abe — on two occasions — and Yoshihide Suga.
Nearly half of the National Diet have opposed him in the past, so it is almost certain that he would not win should he reach the final stage of the election.
Takaichi also has extensive political and administrative experience. She has been a staunch advocate of Taiwan from the beginning of her career. A strong and unyielding figure, she does not shy away from her right-wing reputation.
The focal point of the election would be whether the principle that a Taiwan contingency is an issue for Japan could be formally implemented as policy. That would depend on whether the candidates hesitate to directly address issues with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) for fear of causing greater harm.
Among the candidates, only Takaichi, Koizumi and former economic security minister Takayuki Kobayashi have shown a willingness to face the CCP head-on by visiting the Yasukuni Shrine — a World War II memorial site controversial for its inclusion of Japanese war criminals that China has previously objected to — prior to Aug. 15.
Koizumi even went so far as to publicly share photographs of his visit, signaling his intention to cooperate with conservatives.
Due to fragmentation among conservatives following Abe’s assassination, a strong supporter of Takaichi, the 11 remaining members of the “Abe faction” and three members of the “Aso faction” have endorsed Kobayashi’s candidacy. With the conservative base loosening, Takaichi would likely struggle to advance past the first round of the election.
The decisive battle would likely be between Koizumi and Ishiba. Suga has expressed support for Koizumi. With the added endorsements of his father, former prime minister Junichiro Koizumi, along with former prime ministers Yoshiro Mori and Ishiba’s rival Aso, Shinjiro Koizumi enjoys an exceptional advantage with a motto touting unity of diverse perspectives.
By contrast, Ishiba — whose campaign slogan is that vultures do not flock together — appears isolated and might struggle to pose a significant challenge.
If Shinjiro Koizumi unites the different factions of the LDP and makes his way to the top, it could mark a generational shift in the party, potentially leading to the end of factional politics and a rebirth of the LDP.
Wang Hui-sheng is chief director of the Kisei Ladies’ and Children’s Hospital in Japan and a founding member of the East Asian Research Institute.
Translated by Kyra Gustavsen
The gutting of Voice of America (VOA) and Radio Free Asia (RFA) by US President Donald Trump’s administration poses a serious threat to the global voice of freedom, particularly for those living under authoritarian regimes such as China. The US — hailed as the model of liberal democracy — has the moral responsibility to uphold the values it champions. In undermining these institutions, the US risks diminishing its “soft power,” a pivotal pillar of its global influence. VOA Tibetan and RFA Tibetan played an enormous role in promoting the strong image of the US in and outside Tibet. On VOA Tibetan,
Sung Chien-liang (宋建樑), the leader of the Chinese Nationalist Party’s (KMT) efforts to recall Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Legislator Lee Kun-cheng (李坤城), caused a national outrage and drew diplomatic condemnation on Tuesday after he arrived at the New Taipei City District Prosecutors’ Office dressed in a Nazi uniform. Sung performed a Nazi salute and carried a copy of Adolf Hitler’s Mein Kampf as he arrived to be questioned over allegations of signature forgery in the recall petition. The KMT’s response to the incident has shown a striking lack of contrition and decency. Rather than apologizing and distancing itself from Sung’s actions,
US President Trump weighed into the state of America’s semiconductor manufacturing when he declared, “They [Taiwan] stole it from us. They took it from us, and I don’t blame them. I give them credit.” At a prior White House event President Trump hosted TSMC chairman C.C. Wei (魏哲家), head of the world’s largest and most advanced chip manufacturer, to announce a commitment to invest US$100 billion in America. The president then shifted his previously critical rhetoric on Taiwan and put off tariffs on its chips. Now we learn that the Trump Administration is conducting a “trade investigation” on semiconductors which
By now, most of Taiwan has heard Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an’s (蔣萬安) threats to initiate a vote of no confidence against the Cabinet. His rationale is that the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)-led government’s investigation into alleged signature forgery in the Chinese Nationalist Party’s (KMT) recall campaign constitutes “political persecution.” I sincerely hope he goes through with it. The opposition currently holds a majority in the Legislative Yuan, so the initiation of a no-confidence motion and its passage should be entirely within reach. If Chiang truly believes that the government is overreaching, abusing its power and targeting political opponents — then