Wed, Aug 14, 2024 page8

• PRC’s shadow government plans

  • By Antonio Graceffo
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  Last week, the South China Morning Post reported that Chinese academics and strategists have proposed the creation of a “shadow government” for Taiwan. The plan involves setting up a fully prepared administrative body, referred to as the “Central Taiwan Work Committee,” which would be ready to take over in Taiwan immediately upon unification — whether achieved through peaceful means or military action. The proposal emphasizes the committee’s role in swiftly assuming control of the island’s administration if unification were to occur.

  The proposed committee would handle tasks such as currency conversion and infrastructure integration between Taiwan and China, while also encouraging Taiwanese participation in takeover discussions.

  The plan aligns with Beijing’s 2022 white paper on Taiwan, titled “The Taiwan Question and China’s Reunification in the New Era,” which emphasizes a swift and decisive integration of Taiwan into the People’s Republic of China (PRC). A “shadow government” would make this annexation less problematic.

  The proposal suggests that Beijing is considering a more calculated approach, with a pre-emptive administrative takeover potentially preceding any military action or formal annexation.

  The shadow government paper originated from the Cross-Strait Institute of Urban Planning at Xiamen University and was initially posted on WeChat before being removed. The institute, part of the university’s architecture and civil engineering school, confirmed its authorship and hinted at plans to repost the article, although it has not reappeared.

  While this proposal appears to be linked to a single academic paper rather than an official government policy, it is important to note that Chinese think tanks and universities operate under strict government oversight, aligning their publications with Chinese Communist Party (CCP) directives. The publication and subsequent removal of such a controversial paper could be part of Beijing’s broader psychological and information warfare strategy against Taiwan.

  One particularly concerning aspect of the paper is its mention of activating a fifth column — a network of pro-CCP agents and sympathizers embedded in Taiwan. This idea closely mirrors the themes depicted in the trailer for the Taiwanese-produced TV series Zero Day, which explores a hypothetical Chinese invasion of the nation. Beijing has consistently denied the existence of a fifth column in Taiwan.

  Chinese officials argue that these claims are fabricated by Taiwan’s government and media to incite fear and resistance to unification. Despite ongoing reports from Taiwan of espionage and infiltration, Beijing maintains that its policies toward Taiwan are transparent and focused on peaceful unification, denying any covert operations aimed at undermining Taiwan’s government.

  However, the inclusion of the fifth column as part of the plan outlined in the Xiamen University paper confirms that such a network indeed exists and is part of Beijing’s broader strategy.

  The Global Taiwan Institute confirms that from 2008 to 2016, Beijing significantly intensified its “united front” operations and intelligence activities in Taiwan, expanding its fifth column of pro-China agents, sympathizers and organizations. These operatives were embedded across sectors, including economics, media, culture, religion, industry and politics. The covert network, which has grown increasingly comprehensive, forms the foundation of China’s political warfare strategy against Taiwan, aiming to advance Beijing’s interests and potentially destabilize Taiwan from within.

  Between 2000 and 2020, Taiwan recorded 62 cases of espionage targeting military personnel, businesspeople, media professionals and political leaders. Several espionage cases have involved Taiwanese military officers passing sensitive information to China. Chinese intelligence notably attempted to compromise Taiwan’s highest levels of security, including infiltration efforts involving the presidential security team and attempts to recruit agents within Taiwan’s Military Intelligence Bureau as double agents. In the past year alone, 16 additional cases of Chinese espionage were documented.

  PRC influence operations have included leveraging networks linked to the Whampoa Military Academy and cultivating relationships with influential retired generals to promote unification narratives. The CCP has also been accused of manipulating media and spreading disinformation to sow discord within Taiwan. By influencing local governments, religious organizations and grassroots groups, China aims to undermine Taiwan’s democracy while subtly swaying public opinion in favor of unification.

  Whether the shadow government is an actual policy or just propaganda matters less than the message Beijing wants to send: that the PRC’s annexation of Taiwan is inevitable, and only the details of the handover remain to be worked out. The timing of this paper’s publication could also indicate that the date is approaching.

  Moreover, by allowing the paper to be published, Beijing has inadvertently confirmed the existence of a fifth column within Taiwan.

  Antonio Graceffo is a China economic analyst who holds a China MBA from Shanghai Jiao Tong University. He studies national defense at the American Military University in West Virginia.
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