The US would provide the Philippines with US$500 million in military funding “to boost security collaboration with our oldest treaty ally in this region,” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced on Tuesday. “We’re building on a lot of progress the Philippines has already made to be better positioned to defend their sovereignty. That is what this is about,” Blinken told a news conference in Manila.
With concerns rising amid growing Chinese aggression toward Philippine vessels operating in the South China Sea, “Washington could be dragged into a conflict due to its mutual defense treaty with Manila,” an Agence France-Presse article said.
Such a conflict is not inevitable and the US has been trying to assist the Philippines without directly engaging the China Coast Guard, but Washington must proceed quickly to enhance the Philippines’ position and prevent China from acting with impunity.
Beijing is attempting to convey to Washington’s allies in the Asia-Pacific region that the US would not intervene in a conflict. If China gets that message across, the US’ influence in the region would be undermined and China’s position greatly bolstered.
Money alone would not be enough, as the Philippines lacks the vessels to stand up to Chinese forces. China has about 370 warships in its navy and 157 ocean-going patrol vessels in its coast guard. By contrast, the Philippine Navy has 90 combat ships and its coast guard has 62 patrol vessels. The US’ best move might be to patrol the South China Sea at random intervals alongside Philippine supply and fishing boats. The presence of the US Navy alone could deter Chinese aggression, as it would not want to provoke an armed conflict with the world’s most powerful navy.
However, the US Navy is often engaged in several missions simultaneously and could not be tied up at all times escorting Philippine vessels. For that reason, the US should lead an alliance of regional partners, which would cooperate to protect all their interests in the South China Sea.
Naturally, first island chain countries, including Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia, should be a part of that alliance. The latter two have several South China Sea claims that they are vocal about defending. The backing of an alliance to protect those claims from China might appeal to them.
Vietnam and Australia, which have also had skirmishes with China in the region, might also join such an alliance. The alliance could protect members’ access to reefs and other features that they already occupy, and could prevent Chinese occupation of the dozens of still unoccupied features in the region.
The reasons for preventing Chinese incursions are twofold: First, Chinese land-reclamation activities in the South China Sea have caused extensive environmental and ecological damage since 2014, and second, China’s militarization of the features it has occupied has resulted in heightened regional tensions and the obstruction of countries’ economic activity in their territorial or international waters.
Such threats from China would not abate, and the more China is permitted to engage in expansion and aggression with impunity, the more difficult it would become for countries in the region to protect their sovereignty.
Taiwan and the Philippines, both of which face significant challenges from Chinese aggression, should cooperate on military drills and patrols in the South China Sea, while the US and Japan should take the lead in encouraging the formation of an alliance.
Meanwhile, logistics drills that ferry supplies to Taiwan across the Bashi Channel from the Philippines and from Ishigaki Island in Japan’s Okinawa Prefecture would prepare allies for a possible Chinese blockade of Taiwan.
Military funding for Taiwan and the Philippines is great, but a strong regional alliance is the only thing that would deter Chinese expansionism and aggression.
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