Tue, Jul 30, 2024 page9

• Oil, the old king, remains omnipotent and omnipresent

  The dirtiest fossil fuel still powers the world and talk of its demise is greatly exaggerated

  • By Javier Blas / Bloomberg Opinion
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  Every second, the world burns 275 metric tonnes of coal — enough to fill 10 large dump trucks. That makes nearly 17,000 tonnes per minute or one million tonnes an hour. Quickly, the mass becomes so large that it is difficult to comprehend its enormity, but I will take a stab at putting it into context: Every six hours, the world consumes enough to build a coal replica of the Great Pyramid of Giza.

  Coal and the industrial revolution it fueled created the world we live in — and nearly two centuries after George Stephenson used his “Locomotion No. 1” coal-fired steam engine to haul a passenger car along rails for the first time, the dirtiest of all fossil fuels remains unquestionably central to the global economy.

  That might sound preposterous; after all, we are in the age of the climate crisis. Yet despite all the solar panels, all the windmills, the electric vehicles and the government incentives to go green, the world has never used as much coal as it is burning this year.

  

  Illustration: Yusha

  The world would devour a record 8.74 billion metric tonnes of the several varieties of the dirtiest of fossil fuels this year, an International Energy Agency (IEA) report published on Wednesday showed. The IEA also increased its estimate for consumption last year. It all goes up in smoke, burned in power stations, metal forges, cement plants and, in many corners of the developing world still, for home cooking and heating. It fuels the global economy — and climate change.

  Rampant coal consumption is not going to stop anytime soon. Under current trends, appetite for anthracite, lignite and all the other flavors would be higher in 2050 than it was in 2000. Read that again and let it sink in: Since the world started to get serious about global warming, coal demand has done nothing but increase, up 75 percent since 1997 (Kyoto Protocol) and by nearly 15 percent since 2015 (Paris Agreement).

  The new figures for last year and this year fit a pattern: For the past decade, the IEA has been heralding the arrival of peak coal demand, only to increase its forecast almost every year. Now, it says that appetite would drop next year and start to gradually decline thereafter.

  Maybe. However, I remain skeptical about the next few years and even the coming decade. At best, the story of the next five to 10 years is one of a plateau. The cliff-like drop that some analysts anticipate remains a fantasy.

  Three reasons underpin my pessimism.

  First, India is witnessing a rapid increase in electricity usage, and New Delhi, keen to avoid blackouts, is going all-in building coal-fired power stations, paying no more than lip service to emissions targets. So far this year, coal consumption in India is running 10 percent higher than last year.

  Second, coal burning in southeast Asia would continue to increase, with countries reluctant to shift to gas after the Russian invasion of Ukraine led to a surge in prices as Europe responded by grabbing whatever gas was available for its own use. Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia and Pakistan are among the countries where coal demand would continue to climb. The latter has significant deposits of low-quality fuel, called lignite, which it can potentially tap to power its industrialization program. Heatwaves linked to climate change and a more affluent population would lead to more air conditioners, further boosting electricity generation.

  Third, the low hanging fruit of the coal-to-gas and coal-to-renewables switch in Europe and the US is largely gone. For a few years, rising Asian consumption was offset by dropping demand in the West. Now, that compensating mechanism has run its course.

  Ironically, coal is now getting a boost from the energy transition itself. As the world moves to electrify everything — for example, putting more electric vehicles on the roads — demand for power is rising briskly. Renewable sources are meeting the bulk of that increase, but coal is still required, mostly because it is dependable: It does not rely on weather conditions like hydropower, wind and solar do. There are alternatives to provide a baseload flow of power, but these are typically also disliked by green activists: gas-fired power stations and nuclear reactors.

  The production of what is needed for the shift toward green energy sources also is boosting demand for the fossil fuel. In China, mass production of solar photovoltaic panels, electric vehicles and batteries is one of the main reasons why electricity consumption is rising. In Indonesia, nickel production, key for electric car batteries, is consuming huge amounts of low-quality coal. Quietly, coal demand there has doubled in the past five years.

  I am often asked whether the world is winning the battle of the energy transition. As long as coal consumption keeps increasing, the world is not performing an “energy transition,” but an “energy addition,” where renewable sources of energy top up fossil fuels. Despite its enormous importance to the global economy and climate change, coal is not as prominent in the discussion as it should be. In energy conferences, few even mention it. At times, I hear more discussions about banning plastic straws than about coal. Progress in reducing demand is hugely exaggerated.

  At the UN Climate Change Conference in Glasgow in 2021, policymakers said they were “consigning coal to history.” Utter nonsense. That careless talk is a gross mischaracterization of the trends. Talking about imaginary progress in reducing coal demand does not enhance the energy transition; it makes it far more difficult.

  In the Western world, coal is an afterthought, a bygone commodity. Most Europeans and Americans aged 65 and younger have never had direct contact with the commodity. They have never used it for heating or cooking at home. I am one of those lucky, ignorant ones. However, ask the older generation and they do remember coal. My father, aged 73, recalls hauling it as a kid from the local warehouse to my grandparents’ home in northern Spain.

  True, coal remains important for power generation even in rich nations — in the US, it still accounted for 16 percent of power generation last year, more than solar and wind combined — but in that role, the commodity is largely hidden from daily view. That shapes our perceptions.

  For a reality check, look to Asia, where “King Coal” still reigns. In China, India and many other regional powerhouses, coal remains present in the daily lives of many, as well as where coal-fired power plants are the main source of electricity.

  Last year, Asia accounted for 82 percent of global coal usage; China alone consumed 56 percent, UK-based Energy Institute said.

  Despite such gargantuan usage, China is for many green activists the poster child of green energy innovation. It is the nation that is producing and installing more windmills and solar panels. It is also the leader in electric vehicles, both in production and adoption. However, the Chinese green energy business is built on coal, and Beijing is quite happy to carry on relying on the fuel. Amazingly, many within the green lobby overlook, minimize and excuse the Chinese behavior. For shame.

  It is time the world paid more attention to the persistence of coal. Otherwise the energy transition is doomed to failure.

  Javier Blas is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering energy and commodities. He is coauthor of The World for Sale: Money, Power and the Traders Who Barter the Earth’s Resources.
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