The political temperature has begun to rise with the Democratic Party expected to nominate Vice President Kamala Harris as its presidential candidate, following US President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race. Unlike Biden, with his poor debate performance and low approval ratings, Harris’ presumed presidential nomination has rejuvenated Democrats.
As one would expect, countries across the world are closely assessing what the US foreign policy orientation would be under the presidency of either former US president and Republican Party candidate Donald Trump or Harris.
In this context, one country that also has a keen interest in US presidential elections is Taiwan. After all, Taiwan-US bilateral ties are stronger than ever before. Taiwan has received unprecedented political support from the US, with then-US House of Representatives speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei a watershed development.
That led to a wave of political visits from other countries, highlighting changing global opinion in favor of Taiwan vis-a-vis China.
Last year, Biden signed into law the finalized bill for the 2024 National Defense Authorization Act, which included provisions from the Taiwan Policy Act of 2022 to promote the security of Taiwan, ensure regional stability and deter China’s aggression against Taiwan.
It also threatens severe sanctions against Beijing for hostile action against Taipei. More importantly, in an interview on CBS’ 60 Minutes, Biden said that US forces would defend Taiwan if attacked by China.
The US’ renewed support for Taiwan occurred while Harris was vice president. Thus, there is a solid reason for Taiwan to hope that Harris’ election as president would ensure continuity in US-Taiwan relation.
In the past, Harris has also said that the US would support Taiwan and act against unilateral actions to change the “status quo” in the Taiwan Strait.
She has also been critical of Chinese human rights violations in Hong Kong, Xinjiang and elsewhere. Thus, Harris — a strong supporter of democracy and human rights — is expected to take strong measures to protect Taiwan as a living example of a successful democratic society in Asia and beyond.
Another important aspect of a Harris presidency would be the level of stability and predictability in US foreign policy toward Taiwan and other countries. This in turn would surely help Taipei adjust its foreign and security policies to meet its national interests.
With Harris leading the US, Taiwan can expect to find some space in global institutions like the WHO. The continuity in US foreign policy would help Washington to foster and deepen cooperation with its partners and friends on the Taiwan issue. Japan has recently expressed its willingness to work with the US to defend Taiwan.
It does not mean that the election of Trump for a second term would suddenly change the trajectory of cooperation between Taipei and Washington. After all, during his first term, Trump took a slew of measures to enhance Taiwan’s defense capabilities.
However, uncertainty has grown about US policy under Trump because of his recent statements, such as an interview he gave to Bloomberg Businessweek in which he said Taiwan took almost 100 percent of the US’ semiconductor industry and that Taiwan should pay the US for its security.
The change in Trump’s approach toward Taiwan is seen by China as an opportunity. Chinese social media platforms have already begun supporting Trump’s election campaign. Another factor for China to show its affection for Trump lies in the fact that Beijing wants to prevent the possibility of the escalation of a trade dispute with Washington in case of the return of Trump to the White House.
More to the point, Trump has called Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) “an exceptionally brilliant individual” and publicly said that Xi left him a “beautiful note” after the attempted assassination on him.
These political signals, coupled with Trump’s transactional approach to international relations, have generated legitimate concerns in Taiwan’s political and strategy communities.
At a larger level, Trump’s election might see the US’ withdrawal from global institutions and regional security groupings, affecting efforts to promote a liberal international order in the Indo-Pacific region and beyond.
On the other hand, Harris would have the expertise and strong interest to strengthen ties with allies, friends and partners to promote a rule-based international order. That in turn would play a pivotal role in protecting Taiwan’s case as an independent entity.
Based on the records of Trump and Harris, it would be safe to say that the US under the first US woman president would not look at Taiwan as a bargaining chip to settle its issues with China.
It is also imperative that the US political class and electorate keep in mind that the US’ democracy would not survive merely on the basis of their nation being a large country of immigrants, but also depends on how and to what extent Washington succeeds in preventing its autocratic and imperial tendencies from dominating.
Sumit Kumar is an assistant professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Delhi and a former Ministry of Foreign Affairs visiting fellow at National Chengchi University.
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