Former US president Donald Trump’s speech at the Republican National Convention on July 18 to accept the party’s presidential nomination was aimed at reshaping his image for the electorate and stressing the importance of “making America great again” in the face of rising geopolitical risks. The Republican nominee spoke about some of his key policies, such as raising tariffs, easing inflation, cutting interest rates and canceling subsidies, all major policy shifts should he win the November election.
Regarding the geopolitical risks — such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Israel’s war in Gaza and potential conflicts in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea — Trump described a world in chaos, saying that bolstering the US military would be an effective deterrent to prevent international crises from escalating.
Trump’s remarks imply that US military spending would expand and, as he says he cares about who owes the US money, Washington’s international allies would be under increased pressure to buy more weapons from the US. With this in mind, Taipei must pay attention to whether the weapons it buys meet Trump’s expectations should he return to office, even while not being sure if his support for Taiwan would be guaranteed or under what conditions. In contrast, US President Joe Biden has said on several occasions he would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack.
In his speech, Trump also sought to highlight the differences between his economic policies and Biden’s, such as the latter’s green energy policies. Trump said he would cancel subsidies for wind power, solar energy and electric vehicles, while increasing oil drilling to bring down prices, which means his administration would largely lessen its support for the green energy industry in terms of policy and funding support.
In addition, Trump in his first term relaxed many environmental regulations that negatively affected the green energy industry. Any further relaxation of carbon emission restrictions should Trump take office might reduce the incentive for corporations to switch to renewable energy sources, affecting the promotion and implementation of green energy technology. As the industry needs a stable policy environment for long-term investment and development, any uncertainty would affect investor confidence and market expectations, as well as the business outlook for the industry.
To tackle inflation, Trump pledged to bring down interest rates, which are set by the US Federal Reserve, an agency that historically acts independently of the White House. Once interest rates are lowered, high mortgage rates are bound to drop as well, which would increase US housing affordability and inject life into the sluggish US real-estate industry. In his speech, Trump also vowed to pursue tax cuts, higher tariffs and increase the deportation of undocumented immigrants.
New developments are emerging almost daily after Biden on July 21 announced his withdrawal from the race and called for the Democratic Party to support US Vice President Kamala Harris as the party’s presidential nominee. In the past few days, Harris has gained ground in polls, with some even suggesting her support exceeds Trump’s, adding uncertainty as to the outcome in November, which is one of the reasons behind a recent market rout.
Nonetheless, if Trump returns to the presidency, his policy direction in the next four years would be starkly different from Biden’s, which warrants greater attention from Taiwan’s government and businesses. On the other hand, no matter how Trump might change US policy if elected, his main priority would be stimulating the US economy and enhancing national power.
Policy changes and market turmoil are inevitable, but businesses and industries that follow in step with the US economy would eventually benefit.
The return of US president-elect Donald Trump to the White House has injected a new wave of anxiety across the Taiwan Strait. For Taiwan, an island whose very survival depends on the delicate and strategic support from the US, Trump’s election victory raises a cascade of questions and fears about what lies ahead. His approach to international relations — grounded in transactional and unpredictable policies — poses unique risks to Taiwan’s stability, economic prosperity and geopolitical standing. Trump’s first term left a complicated legacy in the region. On the one hand, his administration ramped up arms sales to Taiwan and sanctioned
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World leaders are preparing themselves for a second Donald Trump presidency. Some leaders know more or less where he stands: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy knows that a difficult negotiation process is about to be forced on his country, and the leaders of NATO countries would be well aware of being complacent about US military support with Trump in power. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would likely be feeling relief as the constraints placed on him by the US President Joe Biden administration would finally be released. However, for President William Lai (賴清德) the calculation is not simple. Trump has surrounded himself
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