Moments after the attempt to assassinate former US president Donald Trump at an election campaign rally on Saturday, he stood up and raised his clenched fist to send his supporters a message of defiance — a gesture that would surely appeal to Americans’ worship of heroism. Combined with US President Joe Biden’s frequent slips of the tongue, this event seemingly puts Trump very close to his goal of a second term in the White House.
Trump, who comes from a business background, failed to get re-elected in the previous presidential election, but if he is voted in for a second term this year, he would seek to implement his election slogan of “Make America Great Again.” As he did last time, he would probably use tariffs as his preferred tool for revitalizing the US economy, and if so, China is likely to be the prime target.
Taiwan has long depended on China, the so-called “world’s factory.” However, from the COVID-19 pandemic and US inflation to the chip war, Taiwanese entrepreneurs in China have suffered the pain of US-China rivalry. The current momentum is rolling toward a second Trump presidency. If he is elected and again takes aim at China, it could lead to a second round of US inflation. Taiwanese businesses operating in China should prepare in advance by moving to other regions, such as Southeast Asia, India or Mexico to avoid getting caught up in the storm.
Apart from the US, the EU is quite upset about China’s “cheap” electric vehicle exports. Major Chinese automakers are being forced to avoid high tariff penalties by moving their production to Europe. China’s role as “the world’s factory” is clearly now on shaky ground, and a worldwide trade war could easily break out.
With these trends in mind, hardworking Taiwanese businesspeople in China must keep an eye on the climate and make sure they are well-prepared for the mercurial Trump’s highly unpredictable moves.
Fang Fu-chuan is an international trader.
Translated by Julian Clegg
In their recent op-ed “Trump Should Rein In Taiwan” in Foreign Policy magazine, Christopher Chivvis and Stephen Wertheim argued that the US should pressure President William Lai (賴清德) to “tone it down” to de-escalate tensions in the Taiwan Strait — as if Taiwan’s words are more of a threat to peace than Beijing’s actions. It is an old argument dressed up in new concern: that Washington must rein in Taipei to avoid war. However, this narrative gets it backward. Taiwan is not the problem; China is. Calls for a so-called “grand bargain” with Beijing — where the US pressures Taiwan into concessions
The term “assassin’s mace” originates from Chinese folklore, describing a concealed weapon used by a weaker hero to defeat a stronger adversary with an unexpected strike. In more general military parlance, the concept refers to an asymmetric capability that targets a critical vulnerability of an adversary. China has found its modern equivalent of the assassin’s mace with its high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) weapons, which are nuclear warheads detonated at a high altitude, emitting intense electromagnetic radiation capable of disabling and destroying electronics. An assassin’s mace weapon possesses two essential characteristics: strategic surprise and the ability to neutralize a core dependency.
Chinese President and Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Chairman Xi Jinping (習近平) said in a politburo speech late last month that his party must protect the “bottom line” to prevent systemic threats. The tone of his address was grave, revealing deep anxieties about China’s current state of affairs. Essentially, what he worries most about is systemic threats to China’s normal development as a country. The US-China trade war has turned white hot: China’s export orders have plummeted, Chinese firms and enterprises are shutting up shop, and local debt risks are mounting daily, causing China’s economy to flag externally and hemorrhage internally. China’s
During the “426 rally” organized by the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and the Taiwan People’s Party under the slogan “fight green communism, resist dictatorship,” leaders from the two opposition parties framed it as a battle against an allegedly authoritarian administration led by President William Lai (賴清德). While criticism of the government can be a healthy expression of a vibrant, pluralistic society, and protests are quite common in Taiwan, the discourse of the 426 rally nonetheless betrayed troubling signs of collective amnesia. Specifically, the KMT, which imposed 38 years of martial law in Taiwan from 1949 to 1987, has never fully faced its
RSS