Moments after the attempt to assassinate former US president Donald Trump at an election campaign rally on Saturday, he stood up and raised his clenched fist to send his supporters a message of defiance — a gesture that would surely appeal to Americans’ worship of heroism. Combined with US President Joe Biden’s frequent slips of the tongue, this event seemingly puts Trump very close to his goal of a second term in the White House.
Trump, who comes from a business background, failed to get re-elected in the previous presidential election, but if he is voted in for a second term this year, he would seek to implement his election slogan of “Make America Great Again.” As he did last time, he would probably use tariffs as his preferred tool for revitalizing the US economy, and if so, China is likely to be the prime target.
Taiwan has long depended on China, the so-called “world’s factory.” However, from the COVID-19 pandemic and US inflation to the chip war, Taiwanese entrepreneurs in China have suffered the pain of US-China rivalry. The current momentum is rolling toward a second Trump presidency. If he is elected and again takes aim at China, it could lead to a second round of US inflation. Taiwanese businesses operating in China should prepare in advance by moving to other regions, such as Southeast Asia, India or Mexico to avoid getting caught up in the storm.
Apart from the US, the EU is quite upset about China’s “cheap” electric vehicle exports. Major Chinese automakers are being forced to avoid high tariff penalties by moving their production to Europe. China’s role as “the world’s factory” is clearly now on shaky ground, and a worldwide trade war could easily break out.
With these trends in mind, hardworking Taiwanese businesspeople in China must keep an eye on the climate and make sure they are well-prepared for the mercurial Trump’s highly unpredictable moves.
Fang Fu-chuan is an international trader.
Translated by Julian Clegg
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