The author Stefan Zweig once wrote that European politics has for centuries been a struggle between two schools of leadership: The common good espoused by humanist Erasmus, and a more self-interested pursuit of power promoted by Machiavelli. It is the former that France desperately needs to embrace if it is going to break the gridlock of a hung parliament and get its economy back on track.
Snap parliamentary elections on Sunday showed French voters are remarkably united on keeping far-right leader Marine Le Pen out of power, but divided on everything else: While Le Pen’s National Rally came third behind a left-wing bloc and French President Emmanuel Macron’s centrists, none of them won a majority. In countries more used to coalition governments, this would be an immediate trigger for compromise and negotiation across the aisle to build bigger partnerships. A moderate Left, Greens and centrists tie-up would potentially be only a few seats short of controlling the legislature.
Instead, what began as House of Cards has become something like an episode of Survivor. The sparring has already begun: Far-left firebrand Jean-Luc Melenchon quickly thundered there would be no compromise on eye-popping wage hikes, wealth taxes and reform rollback, part of a program estimated by think tank Institut Montaigne to add 179 billion euros (US$194 billion) annually to the budget deficit. The rest of his New Popular Front is not so sure.
The Greens’ Marine Tondelier said the risk of economic “catastrophe” should be taken into account. However, the sum total of the past few days is plenty of potential leaders-in-waiting, including the Socialists’ Olivier Faure, but no agreed-upon candidate and no platform.
Instead of accepting that nobody has won, politicians seem to think everyone has — especially those with an eye on presidential elections in 2027. Hence why center-right politicians are now also saying they deserve a chance at forming a government, with former prime minister Edouard Philippe keen to unite them with Macron’s centrists.
Macron, for his part, is trying to buy time by calling for a coalition of pro-European forces to keep the extremes at bay. This makes sense for the time being, given the importance of a successful Olympic Games and the speed at which the Left is tearing itself apart.
However, Macron must know the glue keeping his bloc together is not durable either, with deepening divisions between its left-leaning and right-leaning members. Neither is peace on the streets, where some of Melenchon’s allies hope to apply pressure in an ominous echo of former US president Donald Trump’s “stop the steal.”
Party leaders need to put the cloak and dagger away and think of the common good. The Left alliance, which has declared itself the biggest force in parliament, should be the first to do so by starting from basic principles. One is acknowledging that yesterday’s manifestos are destined for the shredder: It is totally unrealistic to imagine a minority Left government could push through its existing program at a time when credit-rating firms and the EU have put Paris in the budget naughty corner. Another is that the aim of compromise is to build a coalition, which is the only way to govern sustainably.
The third is that any party that does not want to build a coalition — which seems to apply to Melenchon’s France Unbowed — should make it clear and accept the consequences.
The longer this mess drags on, the greater the risk of lost growth, lost investment and lost faith in democracy — all good news for Le Pen, who is biding her time and who clearly remains the politician to beat in 2027 even as she faces a new campaign-finance probe. France has a huge task addressing issues like productivity, purchasing power, demographic decline and the bloated size of its state.
No one person can lead France out of its crisis — and maybe, for a while, that is no bad thing.
Lionel Laurent is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist writing about the future of money and the future of Europe. This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
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