French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call snap elections has left him the lame duck president of a rump political movement. France now looks headed for a hung parliament — or one governed by the right-wing National Rally party. Either way, the likely result is a more fragmented polity, economic stagnation and government gridlock.
French voters hammered the political center on Sunday last week. Marine Le Pen’s National Rally won about one-third of the votes, followed by a grouping of left-wing parties promising budgetary extravagances.
Should National Rally prevail tomorrow, France would be in new political territory. Past periods of “cohabitation” have occurred between mainstream parties. Never have the presidency and the National Assembly been controlled by parties with such starkly different visions on everything from fiscal policy to international institutions, climate change and national security. A National Rally government would not only threaten to be a drag on France’s debt-laden economy, but it could also put the brakes on Europe’s attempts to boost competitiveness and prove a gift to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Macron’s own thinking remains a mystery. If he was betting that a right-wing government could either be cowed or self-destruct before the all-important presidential election in 2027, that, too, could backfire. In a country where political disputes have a habit of spilling onto the streets, France could instead find itself even more polarized. Even if National Rally cannot form a government this time, it would be a powerful force in Parliament and a contender in 2027 for the presidency, the ultimate prize in French politics.
It is true that National Rally has gone a long way toward detoxifying a brand once associated (under a previous name) with the Holocaust denial of Le Pen’s father. Le Pen elevated the charismatic 28-year-old Jordan Bardella as a frontman and candidate for prime minister. However, the party’s current mix of nationalism, protectionism and interventionism are sufficient to rattle markets and alarm businesses. Its ascent comes at a time when leftist parties are also gaining ground, raising the risk of recession or worse, given France’s large budget deficit and debt burden. National Rally candidates spouting anti-Semitic, xenophobic and conspiratorial comments are a reminder of the party’s ugly roots.
Moreover, National Rally’s draconian policy positions — along with a deep euroskepticism and a history of pro-Putin stances — would put France on a collision course with Brussels at a time when the EU is grappling with a host of urgent challenges, including slow growth, the war in Ukraine and the costs of decarbonization. With German Chancellor Olaf Scholz also a weakened force after recent European Parliament elections, the traditional Franco-German ballast can no longer be relied on to provide a sense of direction and focus.
Macron’s predicament underlines the dangers of neglecting voters’ pain. He deserves credit for the tax and labor market reforms that marked his early tenure. He was right to seek changes to France’s out-of-control pension system. However, he failed to address concerns about living costs, housing affordability and rising immigration. His use of executive powers to bypass the National Assembly reinforced the impression of a remote and high-handed leader. Ultimately, the politician who disrupted France’s mainstream parties in 2017 came to embody the hauteur of the Paris establishment he vowed to displace.
Further reform now looks unlikely. Macron would need to learn from his mistakes and use his remaining years as president to build better bridges at home and with allies such as Poland, Britain and the US. Elsewhere in Europe, France’s political fragmentation should be a wake-up call.
As a nuclear power, a permanent member of the UN Security Council and a critical NATO ally — not to mention one of the largest economies in Europe — France remains a significant force on the global stage. Its elections matter. Its interests are best served by stable politics, a growing economy and reinforced alliances in a more threatening world. That is going to get a lot harder.
The Editorial Board publishes the views of the editors across a range of national and global affairs.
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