Deterrence is fading; war is looming on the Taiwan Strait and for other targets of the China-enabled dictatorship alliance, and after three years the cure is just dawning on the Biden Administration.
Now mind you, for a May 28, 2024 interview with Time magazine, President Joe Biden made his 5th public commitment that the United States would defend Taiwan.
Less than three weeks later the United States Navy, along with ships from navies of Japan, Canada, the Netherlands, and France, were conducting the Valiant Shield joint force exercise in the Philippine Sea south of Taiwan and in the South China Sea to the west of the Philippines.
This exercise deployed over 100 combat aircraft on the US Navy carriers Ronald Reagan and Theodore Roosevelt, and about 590 vertical launch systems (VLS) for surface-to-air, anti-submarine or Land Attack Cruise Missiles (LACMs), on one Ticonderoga class cruiser and five Burke class destroyers.
However, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and its People’s Liberation Army (PLA) were not acting “deterred” as they see they are “out gunning” the many annual US Navy led exercises that usually only consist of two carrier battle groups, very rarely three.
By June 15 the PLA Navy (PLAN) had deployed one Type-075 landing helicopter dock (LHD), and one Type-071 landing platform dock (LPD), large amphibious assault ships close by the Second Thomas Shoal (仁愛暗沙) in the Spratly Island Group (南沙群島), currently occupied by a rusting Philippine Navy World War 2 era landing ship tank (LST).
Nearby were three new PLAN Type-055 cruisers, one Type-052C destroyer, and two Type-054A frigates, along with seven Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) and about 80 fishing ship-size Chinese Maritime Militia (CMM) ships.
If China wanted to attack Second Thomas Shoal or launch a rapid punitive raid against the Philippine city of Puerto Princesa on its Palawan Island, closest to Second Thomas Shoal, the two large amphibious assault ships could accommodate up to 1,600 PLA Marines, along with 24 assault helicopters and about six large hovercraft to deliver some 100 armored fighting vehicles which could level that city.
These ships, in turn, were protected by 448 VLS with anti-aircraft, anti-submarine and anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs) on the PLAN combat ships, and could be supported from the new large PLA bases on Mischief Reef (美濟礁), Subi Reef (渚碧礁) and Fiery Cross Reef (永暑礁).
But more importantly, the US Navy carrier groups were covered by the PLA Rocket Force’s 400 launchers for its DF-26 and DF-21D ASBMs, and DF-17 maneuverable hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) armed missiles — which could have multiple reloads, sufficient to likely overwhelm US Navy defenses.
Such CCP-PLA confidence would go far to explain the base verbal aggression of Chinese Defense Minister Admiral Dong Jun (董軍), as he used his June 2 address before Singapore’s annual Shangri-La Dialogue forum of the London-based International Institute of Strategic Studies to threaten war against the de-facto independent democracy of Taiwan and its supporters.
Dong threatened, “The [People’s Liberation Army] will take resolute action to curb Taiwan independence and make sure such a plot never succeeds. Anyone who dares to separate Taiwan from China is bound to be smashed to pieces and bring about their own ruin.”
Then on June 15 the Financial Times reported that in an April 2023 meeting, CCP leader Xi Jinping (習近平) told European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen that “Washington was trying to goad Beijing into attacking Taiwan.”
This is the time-worn trope of dictators; Hitler famously blamed Poland for his having to invade and on February 1, 2022, 23 days before his invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin said the United States “was drawing us into some kind of armed conflict.”
Perhaps Xi has already reprised Hitler’s May 23, 1939 speech to the Nazi leadership: “There is therefore no question of sparing [Taiwan], and we are left with the decision to attack [Taiwan] at the first suitable opportunity.”
Contrary to Xi’s delusions, during the 1950s Washington sought vigorously to prevent Taiwan from starting a war with China, and then in the 1970s shifted to carefully constraining Taiwan’s military capabilities to a defensive posture, contributing to its current insufficient defense capabilities.
Xi greeted the inauguration of new Taiwan President Lai Ching-te (賴清德) with the PLA’s May 24-25 Joint Sword 2024A joint-force exercise that advanced the PLA’s ability to impose a blockade on Taiwan, slated as the first of a series of similarly sized or larger exercises this year, all to prepare for an eventual invasion.
Soon Xi will be searching for this “Mukden Incident” on which to blame Taiwan and America for his starting a war that could kill millions of Taiwanese.
Deterrence has already faded in Europe, despite Russian dictator Vladimir Putin’s responsibility for 500,000 Russian deaths and casualties from his February 2022 war against Ukraine.
In a pointed lesson to the CCP, Putin prevented decisive US and European intervention with near weekly nuclear threats, and has gained time to push Russia to higher levels of military mobilization which will support a wider war against the Baltic States, Poland, and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
Putin is now benefitting from China’s decades of support for North Korea, including the last 20 years spent helping Pyongyang to build a nuclear armed missile force that by the early 2030s could devastate South Korea and Japan and take out most of the current US fixed nuclear deterrent force.
With their June 19, 2024 “comprehensive strategic partnership” with a defense clause that Kim Jong Un called an “alliance,” Putin is trying to force US strategic attention from Ukraine by creating a “second front” for instability and war.
Not only will North Korea supply Russia with another 5 million artillery rounds to pummel Ukraine, and then the Baltics and Poland, Putin’s military guarantees will cover Kim Jong Un as he engineers nuclear incidents in Asia, provides military support for the Taiwan War and considers nuclear proliferation to Iran, Venezuela, Cuba and others.
As Putin was in Pyongyang, the Russian Navy has deployed small formations to Cuba and Venezuela, including frigates and nuclear attack submarines that could be carrying nuclear warhead armed cruise missiles, a reminder of the Russia-China-North Korea-Iran potential to create war in Latin America
Deterrence is also fading in the Middle East, as China seeks to displace the US from its longstanding security role by seeking to arm both the fanatical Islamist Iranian Mullah regime and the major Arab states traditionally aligned against it, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
China’s longstanding economic and military support for Iran has enabled its proxy war against Israel, including its funding and leading the October 7, 2023 Hamas War against Israel. Presently Iran is preparing a more devastating war via its proxy Hezbollah.
On a political level the CCP now supports the destruction of Israel. A future Chinese-dominated security structure in the Middle East might include Chinese or North Korean-assisted nuclear missile proliferation to both Iran and Saudi Arabia, and see China leading joint Iranian, Arab, and Russian wars against Israel.
Perhaps the greatest source for Xi’s and Putin’s growing confidence, and the fading of the US-led ability to deter them, is the growing likelihood that China and Russia will engage in joint nuclear coercion of the United States, as China seeks global nuclear superiority.
With China’s construction of about 300 new nuclear missile silos having been revealed in early 2021, on August 12, 2021, the Commander of US Strategic Command, Adm. Charles Richard, stated, “We are witnessing a strategic breakout by China…. The explosive growth in their nuclear and conventional forces can only be what I described as breathtaking.”
In 2023 the US Intelligence Community predicted that China’s nuclear warhead levels could increase to 1,000 by 2030 or to as many as 1,500 by 2035 — matching current US warhead levels.
But if one considers maximum warhead carriage estimates for new Chinese intercontinental missiles, and assumes more capable missiles before 2030, then potential warhead estimates by the later 2030s could pass 5,000.
Such an assessment may go far to explain the Biden Administration’s recent beginning of a reversal regarding the US nuclear posture.
Just a year ago in a June 2, 2023 speech before the anti-nuclear weapons Arms Control Association in Washington, DC, Biden Administration National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said:
“…the United States does not need to increase our nuclear forces to outnumber the combined total of our competitors in order to successfully deter them. We’ve been there. We’ve learned that lesson. Nor does the United States need to deploy ever-more dangerous nuclear weapons to maintain deterrence.”
The latter was a reference to new tactical nuclear weapons like the Trump Administration’s intent to rebuild a tactical nuclear-armed, sea-launched cruise missile (SLCM-N), rejected in Biden’s March 2022 Nuclear Posture Review, which also rejected any expansion of the US strategic nuclear force.
But in a June 8, 2024 speech before the Arms Control Association, Sullivan’s deputy, Senior Director for Arms Control on the National Security Council Pranay Vaddi, revealed:
“Absent a change in adversary arsenals, we may reach a point in the coming years where an increase from current deployed numbers is required… If that day comes, it will result in a determination that more nuclear weapons are required to deter our adversaries and protect the American people and our allies and partners.”
Due to the power of anti-nuclear “progressives” in the Democratic Party, it is unclear whether such assessments would survive into a second Biden Administration, or one led by current Vice President Kamala Harris, but Vaddi is correct.
A new Biden, or a succeeding Trump Administration, should pursue a crash program to build thousands of theater nuclear weapons, to include medium and intermediate range nuclear armed missiles, nuclear armed cruise missiles, and nuclear artillery shells.
Only when Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, Kim Jong Un, and the Iranian Mullahs understand that their invasion armies and invasion navies can be obliterated immediately will they think again about starting new wars.
When they do, deterrence will stop fading and become strong again.
Richard D. Fisher is a senior fellow with the International Assessment and Strategy Center.
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