In recent months, high-level discussions in Taiwan have raised the prospect of the nation joining the International Criminal Court (ICC), one of the many institutional pillars of the international rules-based order that still excludes Taiwan.
Taiwan should swiftly move to join the court, as it would be an opportunity for the nation to send a clear signal to the world that it upholds the universal values of international law, justice and human rights.
Not being a member of the UN, Taiwan has faced difficulties in joining international institutions, but joining the ICC would be relatively straightforward: While most members have joined by depositing an instrument of accession to the Rome Statute with the UN, others have joined by unilaterally submitting to the court’s jurisdiction, which involves a simple declaration of accepting ICC jurisdiction over the territory it controls.
This method was used by Ukraine in 2013 and Palestine in 2015, and the court confirmed its jurisdiction over those areas in 2019 and 2020, including occupied and disputed territories.
The ICC has issued arrest warrants for war crimes in Ukraine, including for Russian President Vladimir Putin. ICC Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan has also applied for arrest warrants for war crimes committed in Palestine and Israel (a non-member), including for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.
While the latter decisions have aroused considerable controversy in the US, this has not been true in much of the rest of the world, including close US allies. Taiwan can demonstrate its desire to be a normal member of the international community by joining the 124 other ICC members, including nearly every country in Latin America, and a majority of European and African states.
The move would strengthen Taiwan’s strong, values-based relationships with European allies, and make a clear first step toward mending Taiwan’s declining relations with Latin American and African states. It would signal to skeptical constituencies around the world that Taiwan is not a US puppet, but stands on its own two feet in international relations.
Some would argue that joining the ICC when the US is openly debating sanctioning the court risks alienating Taiwan’s most important ally. In reality, Taiwan would face no repercussions from the US. Hawks in Washington who are attacking the ICC are the same people who would never wish to appear weak on China by threatening Taiwan. Besides, this experiment has already run its course in Europe — the US has taken no actions against Western allies who have backed the court’s independence.
There is also the “deterrent factor.” Some have said ICC jurisdiction over Taiwan would be an effective deterrent against a Chinese invasion, even though an invasion of sovereign Taiwan would contravene international law, regardless of ICC jurisdiction.
Many security officials worry most about a blockade in which China cuts Taiwan off from the world. Some have estimated that in the event of a blockade, Taiwan would run critically low on food supplies within six months and would exhaust critical fuel stockpiles within weeks.
Taiwan’s supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) is especially vulnerable, with reserves that might only last for up to 11 days, despite a plan for the grid to be 50 percent dependent on LNG by next year. Grid failures would inevitably lead to casualties as hospitals struggle to keep the lights on.
ICC jurisdiction might prove to have some deterrence against Chinese aggression in this case. In the Gaza war, the basis for arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant included “starvation of civilians as a method of warfare,” citing its restriction of food and medicine, as well as “cutting off and hindering electricity supplies” as specific acts constituting war crimes.
Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) and Chinese officials would similarly risk international arrest warrants for a blockade of Taiwan. Xi might be willing to risk a great deal to coerce Taiwan, but he is counting on the appearance of restraint to maintain China’s global standing.
Xi would become an international pariah at a time when China is attempting to assert global leadership.
Even Russia’s close BRICS ally South Africa was unwilling to host Putin for a BRICS event after the court issued a warrant for his arrest. Xi would likely receive the same treatment from non-aligned countries, which strongly rely on a rules-based order governed by international institutions that treat all nations, big and small, on equal footing.
Although the immediate impact of joining the ICC would be limited, it is a strategic and simple step the nation can take toward long-term deterrence and coalition building, sending a strong signal of Taiwanese values to the international community.
Sasha B. Chhabra is an analyst, commentator and media consultant on China’s foreign policy, Taiwanese politics and cross-strait affairs.
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