Beijing’s goals in last month’s China-Japan-South Korea Ninth Trilateral Summit were to repair and strengthen its relations with Seoul and Tokyo, as a way of counterbalancing US influence. In a climate where public sentiment is shifting against the Chinese Communist Party, Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) is attempting to break up the US alliances in Asia and Europe.
The outcome of the trilateral summit is more symbolic than substantive, as both South Korea and Japan remain under threat from Beijing and are unlikely to pivot away from the US. This was evidenced by a statement after the US-Japan-South Korea Trilateral Ministerial Meeting held on June 2, which rebuked “aggressive behavior by the People’s Republic of China supporting unlawful maritime claims that they have recently witnessed in the South China Sea.”
With a constant threat of territorial and military conflict, there is only so much cooperation that can be expected with China.
However, in Europe, alliances and recognition of security threats are not so cut and dry. On a diplomatic mission to Europe earlier this year, Xi was able to target some low-hanging fruit: European nations he believes can be influenced. Touting his vision for a multipolar, Chinese-led world to counter US hegemony, Xi visited France, Serbia and Hungary.
Xi seems to view these three nations as prime candidates for building a coalition. Serbia might be seeking a new ally to replace Russia, while Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban champions national sovereignty and prioritizes its own interests over those of the EU. Additionally, France could serve as a gateway for Xi to deepen his influence within the EU.
The EU already faces a trade deficit of US$324 billion with China, and Xi apparently wants more. Furthermore, French President Emmanuel Macron shares Xi’s vision for a multipolar world where the US does not hold the dominant position, though whether Macron welcomes a Chinese-led world order remains uncertain.
Serbia maintains an official stance of nonalignment and is not affiliated with either the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization or US-led NATO. However, Serbia maintains a strong alliance with Russia, with many Serbs regarding Russia as the nation’s greatest friend. While Serbia did not impose sanctions on Russia after the invasion of Ukraine, there are signs of a reassessment of its ties with Russia, with increasing openness to stronger connections with either China or the West.
It was highly symbolic that Xi visited Serbia on the 20th anniversary of NATO’s accidental bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade. That incident took place during a NATO intervention in the war in then-Yugoslavia in 1998 and 1999. Xinhua news agency characterized it as “NATO forces carrying out savage airstrikes for 78 days against Yugoslavia,” but it is important to note that neither the US nor NATO was officially at war with Yugoslavia.
The war in Yugoslavia was a series of conflicts fueled by internal ethnic, religious and political tensions within the nation. NATO’s intervention sought to quell the violence, restore stability and safeguard civilians, with a focus on enforcing peace agreements. As a result, several new independent nations emerged — Croatia, Slovenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia and Serbia. It could be argued that without NATO intervention, Serbia might not have achieved independence. An important point is that China played no role at all in the intervention in Yugoslavia nor in the independence of Serbia.
Chinese greeted Xi wearing red caps and badges that read “China-Serbia friendship.” Xi’s remarks, as published by Xinhua, emphasized the “ironclad friendship between China and Serbia.” He also paid his respects at a monument honoring the “Chinese martyrs” killed in the incident. Interestingly, the embassy had held a memorial service every year on the anniversary, except during Xi’s visit.
As a result of these meetings between the Chinese and Serbian leaders, the two nations signed 29 agreements, among which was a free-trade agreement set to take effect next month. Serbia’s membership in the Belt and Road Initiative encompasses projects such as a high-speed railway line connecting Belgrade and Budapest, as well as the high-speed railway line linking Belgrade and Serbia’s second-largest city, Novi Sad.
Xi’s visit commemorated the 75th year of relations between China and Hungary. During his time in Budapest, Xi signed 18 agreements and memorandums of understanding, solidifying a strategic partnership agreement between the two nations. These agreements encompassed trade deals and commitments to infrastructure development in the energy and transportation sectors, including the construction of a railway encircling Budapest and a high-speed railway line connecting the airport to the city center.
Orban described the partnership as an “all-weather” alliance, akin to the “no limits” friendship between Beijing and Moscow.
Apart from the diplomatic clout China gained through these agreements, one concrete benefit is the ability to circumvent EU trade restrictions by manufacturing in Hungary instead of exporting directly to the EU. The lucrative agreements signed with Serbia and Hungary could serve as an incentive for Slovakia to align more closely with China. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico is set to visit China this summer, where he is anticipated to offer contracts for the maintenance of 500 public highway bridges across the nation. Discussions would also likely involve the potential construction of a railway between Bratislava and Komarno.
These recent developments might signal a revival of the Belt and Road Initiative in central and eastern Europe.
Hungary would also afford Xi greater influence within the EU, especially considering that Hungary is to assume the presidency of the European Council in just a few months. Similarly, improving strained China-EU relations was one of Xi’s motivations for meeting with Macron.
This year commemorates 60 years of relations between France and China. The relationship between the two nations has been complicated due to France’s challenge in maintaining independent foreign policy while also being part of the EU and NATO, as well as being the oldest ally of the US. However, as the second-largest economy in the EU, France has long harbored resentment toward US economic and diplomatic dominance on the continent. Unfortunately for Macron, the outcome of Xi’s visit to Paris was less substantive than those to Serbia and Hungary, with almost no deals signed apart from a promise to remove import tariffs on French cognac.
On the surface, it appears that Xi’s Europe play scored two out of three, but Serbia is neither a member of the EU nor a part of the Western-led US order, so China strengthening its ties with that nation does not chip away at the power of the US or the EU. Hungary is a member of the EU and is moving closer to China, but Orban is fiercely independent and unlikely to subordinate himself or his nation to Beijing. Finally, France will always be France. It will be stuck in Europe, unlikely to ever have a strong alignment with Asia or China, and always play second fiddle to Germany’s economic power and influence on the continent, far behind the US in the global arena.
Antonio Graceffo, a China economic analyst who holds a China MBA from Shanghai Jiaotong University, studies national defense at the American Military University in West Virginia.
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