Thu, Jun 13, 2024 page8

• EU elections a boon for Taiwan

  • By Nicola Casarini
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  Citizens of the 27 member states of the EU have elected a new European Parliament amid economic and security concerns related to Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine and fears that China could be doing the same by invading Taiwan.

  The European Parliament deserves credit for being one of the world’s foremost institutions leading efforts aimed at upgrading relations with Taiwan and expanding the nation’s international presence.

  Elected by direct universal suffrage for a five-year period, the EU legislature does not have the same power as national parliaments. While it is responsible for drawing up proposals for new European legislation and their implementation, the European Commission can only do so after receiving approval from the majority of EU lawmakers, who can also dismiss the executive body.

  The European Parliament has veto power regarding some key foreign policy decisions, including the adoption of a free-trade agreement or a bilateral investment treaty. This gives the EU legislature the power to influence the direction of European relations with the world.

  This is most evident in the case of Taiwan-China relations. In May 2021, the EU legislature voted, by unanimous consensus, to suspend the ratification of the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment, a massive accord that would have boosted economic ties between the EU and China and was supported particularly by France and Germany.

  EU lawmakers not only blocked that agreement, but in the same resolution called on the European Commission and the European Council — which represents EU member states — to speed up the approval of the bilateral investment treaty with Taiwan.

  Over the years, the European Parliament has consistently supported Taiwanese democracy, while criticizing China for a host of issues, including Beijing’s aggressive behavior toward Taipei. In December last year, the EU Parliament unanimously passed a resolution on promoting EU-Taiwan ties, calling for peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and opposing any unilateral changes to the “status quo” by force.

  These principled positions by the EU legislature often encounter resistance at the national level, since EU member states seek to maintain good economic relations with Beijing.

  However, the result of the most recent elections indicates that the balance is tipping in Taiwan’s favor, not only within the European Parliament, but also at national levels.

  The winner of the elections is clearly the European People’s Party, a center-right, pro-European political group that gathers parties from across Europe and supports a second five-year term for European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

  With 30 percent of the vote obtained in Germany, the Christian Democratic Union has emerged as the clear winner in Europe’s biggest economy, bringing to the European Parliament a large group of lawmakers that openly favor the establishment of closer ties with Taiwan.

  It was Christian Democratic Union lawmakers that pushed the Bundestag to pass a resolution on Dec. 9, 2021, calling on Berlin to reassess its Taiwan policy and deepen exchanges with Taipei, including potentially recognizing it as a sovereign state should provocations from Beijing continue.

  The other winners of the recent EU elections are the nationalist-conservative and far-right parties, represented by two women who have led their political forces to record highs: Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and French lawmaker Marine Le Pen.

  Both obtained about 30 percent of the national votes, leading their parties to emerge as the most voted candidates in their respective countries.

  The political forces in their ranks include some of the fiercest critics of China as well as the more ardent supporters of Taiwanese democracy.

  Meloni and Le Pen have repeatedly criticized Beijing and its trade practices, and succeeded in wooing voters with a “China threat” discourse reminiscent of the one made by former US president Donald Trump.

  In the case of Meloni, her anti-China stance has been coupled with an open support for Taiwan that is rare not only in Italian politics, but also at the EU level.

  During the most recent electoral campaign for the Italian Parliament, Meloni injected the question of cross-strait relations in the political debate by meeting then-representative to Italy Andrea Lee (李新穎), addressing him as “the ambassador” from Taiwan, and promising that if she became prime minister, she would promote Italy-Taiwan relations and play a positive role in advancing wider Brussels-Taipei ties — a promise that Meloni has kept.

  In December last year, Meloni’s Cabinet put an end to Italy’s participation in China’s Belt and Road Initiative and aligned Italy’s stance on cross-strait relations closer to that of the US.

  Le Pen has not yet articulated her position on Taiwan-China relations as clearly as Meloni.

  However, the victory of her National Rally party in the EU elections — which received more than double the votes of French President Emmanuel Macron’s Renew party — adds pressure on the French government to be tougher on China.

  It should not be surprising if Le Pen, in search of legitimacy from Western allies, eventually follows the road taken by Meloni, who has chosen to align Italy’s China policy with that of the US, including open support for Taiwanese democracy — a stance that would be made easier by an eventual return of Trump to the White House. Meloni and Le Pen are avowed supporters of the former US president.

  The main loser in the EU elections is Macron, whose party did not even win 15 percent of the votes. This is not good news for China, as the French leader is, together with Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban, one of the few European leaders who is viewed favorably in Beijing.

  Last month, Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) chose Paris as the starting point of his European tour, lending support to Macron’s much-touted “strategic autonomy,” which, in Beijing’s eyes, is best epitomized by the French leader’s declaration last year that the EU should avoid following the US into a conflict over Taiwan.

  By arguing that the EU should steer clear of “crises that are not ours,” Macron created an uproar among France’s allies — but became a favorite of the Chinese leadership and popular among Chinese commentators. Macron’s defeat means there would be fewer lawmakers in the European Parliament that could relay such ideas.

  Likewise in Italy, the biggest loser is the leftist Five Star Movement party, one of Europe’s more Beijing-friendly political parties. It opened doors to Chinese influence in Italy and decided to officially join China’s Belt and Road Initiative in 2019. By obtaining less than 10 percent of the votes, its lowest result ever, fewer of its lawmakers would be in the European legislature — a loss for Beijing.

  Expect the new European Parliament to continue — and further boost — support for Taiwanese democracy. There will also be more backing for Taipei in some of the countries that have witnessed the advance of nationalist-conservative and far-right parties, such as Italy and France, much to the dismay of Beijing. Among the various winners of the EU elections is definitively — albeit inadvertently — Taiwan.

  Nicola Casarini is a senior associate fellow at the Istituto Affari Internazionali in Rome and a Ministry of Foreign Affairs Visiting Scholar in the European Union Centre at National Taiwan University.
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