Following his inauguration on Monday last week, President William Lai (賴清德) faces an ever-changing and unpredictable situation at home and abroad that presents him with challenges, but also opportunities. The challenges would test his ability to lead and adapt, while the outcome of the opportunities would depend on his ability to innovate and implement. All in all, this is an era of rapid change. Taiwan faces growing threats from China. Economic and social problems are emerging one after another. There have been increasingly chaotic scenes in the Legislative Yuan.
Lai faces great challenges immediately after taking office. At the same time, stability in the Taiwan Strait is a matter of concern for the whole world, while China is plagued by internal and external problems. Taiwan has demonstrated its resilience by successfully responding to any internal and external adversities. This is an opportunity for the president to break new ground. In this regard, Lai’s inaugural address was comprehensive and covered all the main issues. Yet it must be seen whether his administration can implement all his stated policy goals.
Many of the challenges and opportunities that face the president are left over from former president Tsai Ing-wen’s (蔡英文) eight years in office.
On the bright side, Taiwan’s international visibility has significantly increased, and the country has won a lot of support for its insistence on democracy and universal values. Taiwan’s semiconductor and other high-tech industries occupy a key position in the global supply chain. Economically and socially, Taiwan is gradually escaping from China’s magnetic pull, while its democracy, human rights and diversity continue to advance.
From another perspective, Taiwan still needs to break out of its diplomatic isolation. With regard to its internal contradictions, conflicting forces have not established a bottom line for unity. Its industrial and energy development has gone awry, and there are many economic and social imbalances. Its main cultural identity is shaky and transformational justice is incomplete. As such, Taiwanese society is not yet like that of a normal country.
The main causes of all these problems are external. The COVID-19 pandemic, the war between Ukraine and Russia, conflicts in the Middle East and the growing strategic rivalry between the US and China have all caused uncertainties for Taiwan, with the China factor being especially crucial. Under the authoritarian leadership of Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平), the party-state apparatus dominates everything. Politically, economically and socially, it has veered strongly to the left. Its “wolf warrior” diplomacy is rampant on the global scene, although the US is wary of China’s wild ambitions and is taking measures to counter it. China grew bold during its years of economic overexpansion. Now the economic bubble has burst, but the authorities in Beijing are still acting tough, although China’s internal weakness has had some effect on its behavior.
With respect to Taiwan, China’s overt ambition to invade and annex it remains unchanged. Xi might finish preparing for an invasion by 2027, which would be the 100th anniversary of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army and falls within Lai’s presidential term. The new administration must therefore be well prepared, which requires strengthening national defense. However, due to the US’ strengthening of its alliances and its encirclement and resistance against China, not to mention China’s countless internal and external problems, Xi might change his tactics and adopt a “softer” approach to Taiwan. While continuing its military coercion and intimidation, China might focus on working with groups within Taiwan, using “united front” tactics and cognitive warfare to induce or force Taiwanese to surrender without a fight. After all, unification by military force would be too costly, with not only the other side getting hurt.
This demonstrates what the nation’s top priority should be: As well as redoubling its determination and practical actions to defend Taiwan, it must also sort out any confusion about who is on Taiwan’s side and who the enemy is. Just as Tsai said as she left office, Taiwan is a united Taiwan.
Taiwan has indeed made progress in strengthening its national defense over the past eight years. The share of government spending allocated to national defense has increased. Progress has been made in Taiwan’s indigenous submarines and other armaments. Mandatory military service has been extended. In addition, the US is arming Taiwan with continued arms sales and enhanced military cooperation. Efforts along these lines must continue. Only with strength can there be peace, so Taiwan’s stance on strengthening national defense must be unwavering.
The words of former US secretary of state Mike Pompeo, who came to Taiwan to attend Lai’s inauguration, are what is urgently needed to strengthen Taiwan: “Never give an inch, fight for the country I love.”
The policy line regarding the US that Tsai has firmly adhered to during her presidency is the direction Taiwan must continue to follow. How can Taiwan not be pro-US? Surely it should not move closer to an ambitious, domineering and hostile China. Suggestions that Taiwan should follow the “Singapore model” of positioning itself between the two major powers and taking advantage of both, and the suggestion that “siding with the US means heading to war,” are all variations on the “US-skepticism” theme. They disregard the fact that the US has maintained Taiwan’s security since the Korean War, and those who propose them are clearly cheerleaders for China’s ambition to take over Taiwan.
On the eve of Lai’s inauguration, Chinese officials reiterated the “one China” principle as the basis for bilateral exchanges, but this hackneyed tune, preset conditions and Beijing’s rigid stance are the main culprits behind the suspension of official cross-strait contact and exchanges. Lai called on China to stop its military and other threats and respect the choice of the Taiwanese. He called on China to deal with Taiwan’s democratically elected government on the principles of reciprocity and dignity, replacing confrontation with dialogue and containment with exchanges, starting with reciprocal tourism and students coming to study in Taiwan. These suggestions are pragmatic and pertinent. When it comes to peaceful bilateral exchanges, the problem has never been Taiwan — the ball has always been in China’s court. Let us hope that Lai’s words, neither humble nor overbearing, will not fall on deaf ears.
A still more fundamental challenge for Lai’s administration would be to make sure that people feel the effect of its governance. After all, what people care about most is the economy and their livelihoods. In his inaugural address, Lai talked about issues of safety and security such as food, roads, schools and society. He emphasized the need for reforms in the fields of education, justice, energy and transitional justice, and the need to crack down on corruption, organized crime, guns, drugs and fraud.
He also outlined his vision for the development of industrial technology, which includes making Taiwan the Asian hub of drone supply chains, developing the next generation of medium and low-orbit communications satellites, bringing Taiwan’s aerospace industry into the international sphere and striving to become a “country whose economy never sets.” As well as announcing these goals, the important thing is to implement them and not allow them to become mere bureaucratic slogans.
Following Lai’s inauguration, his new Cabinet is on the road to giving Taiwan a better tomorrow. This is the new government’s unshirkable responsibility. At the same time, the fact that none of the three parties in the Legislative Yuan has more than half of the seats has been causing chaotic scenes and posing a test for our democracy. Everyone is worried about whether this new political situation will improve democracy in Taiwan, or sink it into chaos.
Responsibility for what happens next is not just in the hands of the president and his Cabinet, just as safeguarding the country is not only a matter for the military. Another foundation of democracy is for the citizens, as masters of the nation, to stand up and supervise political parties and politicians. In Taiwan’s new political landscape, the nation’s masters must keep their eyes wide open and take action when it is needed.
Translated by Julian Clegg
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