Tens of thousands of flights take off and land without incident every day, all around the world. So, when something tragic does happen, the world’s eyes become glued to the story — especially if it reveals the deadly side of an extremely common flight experience.
One man was killed and many others were injured when a Singapore Airlines flight encountered severe turbulence en route to Singapore from London on Tuesday. The airplane, a Boeing 777-300ER, had to make an emergency landing in Bangkok. The deceased had a heart condition, which officials think might be behind his death.
We do not yet know exactly what caused the agitated air currents, and an investigation is underway. It is currently the monsoon season in Southeast Asia, and the resulting stormy skies might have contributed to the turbulence experienced by the plane. However, we would be foolish to ignore the role that the climate crisis is playing in making air travel choppier.
Illustration: Kevin Sheu
Most commonly caused by mountains, storms and jet streams, turbulence can be described simply as rough air. At its mildest, an aircraft might only experience slight erratic changes in altitude, but at the severe end, turbulence can cause large abrupt changes in the altitude and angle of the plane. Extreme turbulence could even cause structural damage to the body of the aircraft, although modern planes are built to withstand a lot.
In the case of mountains and storms, rough air is fairly easy to avoid, but it is possible to bump into turbulence where there are no clouds in sight. This clear-air turbulence is impossible to see or predict, but can cause damage to the aircraft and those inside. These sudden unexpected jolts are the most dangerous, as they can occur while passengers and staff are moving around. Last month, a man broke his leg as he returned from the toilet when an Air New Zealand flight to Auckland from Bali hit some turbulence and suddenly “dropped.” It is the sort of thing that might keep a pilot up at night — and it has been getting worse.
As our planet’s atmosphere warms, wind shears — variations in wind direction or speed — within jet streams are increasing and therefore strengthening clear-air turbulence.
In the past 40 years, severe clear-air turbulence increased to 27.4 hours in 2020 from 17.7 hours in 1979 for an average point over the North Atlantic, a University of Reading study last year showed.
Last year, I wrote about the ways in which the need to decarbonize flying was going to make air travel more expensive. However, it is clear that large investments are needed to help aviation cope with the meteorological effects of climate change, too.
Aircrafts are designed to withstand the worst that turbulence might throw at them.
Many of the aircraft that would be flying in the second half of the century are currently being designed, so work ought to be done to determine whether projections for turbulence necessitate any design or operational changes, researchers said in a study in 2017.
The US National Transportation Safety Board in a 2021 report made 24 recommendations aimed at reducing the incidence of turbulence accidents and associated injuries, including having flight attendants — who are seriously injured more often than passengers — be seated and belted earlier during the descent phase
More significant investments should also be made into remote sensing of clear-air turbulence and improved forecasts. On the detection front, there is promise being found in updated radar systems, including laser-based radar and a new type of infrasound microphone developed by NASA.
Any investments would be worth it for the safety and comfort of passengers alone, but aviation executives would also be happy to know that the investments could lead to savings — or at least stop potential losses from escalating. After all, turbulence is not cheap.
The cost of choppy air to US airlines is estimated to be as much as US$500 million annually, thanks to injuries, aircraft damage and flight delays, the US National Center for Atmospheric Research said. That would only shoot up, as severe turbulence increases.
In a way, aviation is its own worst enemy: What it contributes in greenhouse gas emissions, it gets back in heightened dangers, costs and difficulties. The industry — and its passengers — need to buckle up.
Lara Williams is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering climate change.
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