A delegation led by Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Legislator Ma Wen-chun (馬文君) yesterday visited Itu Aba Island (Taiping Island, 太平島) in the South China Sea. They intended to challenge president-elect William Lai’s (賴清德) position on Taiwan’s claim there, analysts have said.
The delegation of lawmakers from the KMT and the Taiwan People’s Party intended to show support for Coast Guard Administration officials, inspect a new pier and reinforce Taiwan’s sovereignty, Central News Agency (CNA) quoted Ma as saying.
However, National Sun Yat-sen University professor emeritus Liao Dachi (廖達琪) told CNA last week that the visit was a challenge to Lai to reiterate Taiwan’s claims in the South China Sea.
The Republic of China historically claims all of the rocks, islands, reefs and features in the South China Sea and their surrounding waters that fall within the “nine-dash line.” Today, Taiwan controls Itu Aba, the uninhabited Zhongzhou Reef (中洲礁) and the Pratas Islands (Dongsha Islands, 東沙島).
Despite its extensive claims, Taiwan generally refrains from asserting them over islands and features that are not under its control.
One reason that Lai might not want to assert Taiwan’s South China Sea claims at this time is that its relationship with the Philippines is warming after rocky ties when Rodrigo Duterte, who occasionally aligned with China, was Philippine president.
Ironically, China has not contested Taiwan’s presence on Itu Aba, with Beijing praising Taipei’s response to the 2016 ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague, which called Itu Aba “a rock,” and said it did not meet the definition of an island. Taiwan was prevented from contesting the ruling, but issued a statement saying that Itu Aba is an island as it has livestock, crops and fresh water — enough to support a human settlement.
Of course, China’s support was obviously motivated by a desire to reinforce its own claims by proxy through Taiwan. Arguably, China also has little motivation to contest Taiwan’s presence in the South China Sea, because it sees Taiwan as its own territory and, thus, Taipei’s claims are its own claims.
Likewise, Beijing is more likely to protest Japanese claims over the Diaoyutai Islands (釣魚台) — which Tokyo administers as the Senkaku Islands — than it is to protest Taiwan’s claims there.
However, things are different when it comes to territorial disputes between only Taiwan and China. For example, China has on occasion prevented Taiwan from supplying coast guard officials stationed on the Pratas Islands, claiming it was conducting drills in nearby airspace and so had to close the area to outside air traffic.
Such “gray zone” tactics are intended to put pressure on the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, but they demonstrate the complexity of Taiwan-China territorial disputes.
If Lai were to reiterate Taiwan’s claims, it would appease a large portion of voters. It would also not likely upset Taiwan’s Southeast Asian neighbors, as they know that Taipei is unlikely to act on its claims. On the other hand, if Lai failed to reiterate claims, it would galvanize KMT voters.
Ultimately it is in Lai’s best interest to speak up on Taiwan’s South China Sea claims.
In their recent op-ed “Trump Should Rein In Taiwan” in Foreign Policy magazine, Christopher Chivvis and Stephen Wertheim argued that the US should pressure President William Lai (賴清德) to “tone it down” to de-escalate tensions in the Taiwan Strait — as if Taiwan’s words are more of a threat to peace than Beijing’s actions. It is an old argument dressed up in new concern: that Washington must rein in Taipei to avoid war. However, this narrative gets it backward. Taiwan is not the problem; China is. Calls for a so-called “grand bargain” with Beijing — where the US pressures Taiwan into concessions
The term “assassin’s mace” originates from Chinese folklore, describing a concealed weapon used by a weaker hero to defeat a stronger adversary with an unexpected strike. In more general military parlance, the concept refers to an asymmetric capability that targets a critical vulnerability of an adversary. China has found its modern equivalent of the assassin’s mace with its high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) weapons, which are nuclear warheads detonated at a high altitude, emitting intense electromagnetic radiation capable of disabling and destroying electronics. An assassin’s mace weapon possesses two essential characteristics: strategic surprise and the ability to neutralize a core dependency.
Chinese President and Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Chairman Xi Jinping (習近平) said in a politburo speech late last month that his party must protect the “bottom line” to prevent systemic threats. The tone of his address was grave, revealing deep anxieties about China’s current state of affairs. Essentially, what he worries most about is systemic threats to China’s normal development as a country. The US-China trade war has turned white hot: China’s export orders have plummeted, Chinese firms and enterprises are shutting up shop, and local debt risks are mounting daily, causing China’s economy to flag externally and hemorrhage internally. China’s
During the “426 rally” organized by the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and the Taiwan People’s Party under the slogan “fight green communism, resist dictatorship,” leaders from the two opposition parties framed it as a battle against an allegedly authoritarian administration led by President William Lai (賴清德). While criticism of the government can be a healthy expression of a vibrant, pluralistic society, and protests are quite common in Taiwan, the discourse of the 426 rally nonetheless betrayed troubling signs of collective amnesia. Specifically, the KMT, which imposed 38 years of martial law in Taiwan from 1949 to 1987, has never fully faced its