On Wednesday last week, Chinese leader Xi Jinping (習近平) met with former president Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) for the first time in nine years. It is noteworthy that Xi has removed his own term limits and virtually eliminated opposition within the party, while the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT), to which Ma belongs, suffered defeat in this year’s presidential election.
The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), with Vice President William Lai (賴清德) as its candidate, won for the third consecutive time.
The Chinese government and state media often accuse Lai of being a dangerous separatist, a “troublemaker” and a “war maker.”
Many people ask: How will the Taiwan issue be resolved? Beijing insists that Taiwan is a domestic issue of China, but in reality, the situation in the Taiwan Strait affects the entire Asia-Pacific region and even the world.
After all, several major countries in the world today, including China, the US, Japan and ASEAN members, are closely watching what will happen next in the Taiwan Strait.
The Taiwan issue is also one of China’s bottom lines.
Chinese leaders have always said: “We cannot leave the problem to the next generation.”
“Compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Strait are all Chinese people. There is no grudge that cannot be resolved, no issue that cannot be discussed, and no force that can separate us,” Xi told his guest. “External interference cannot stop the historic trend of the reunion of the family and the country.”
In response, Ma said that although the two sides of the Strait developed under different systems, the people both belong to the Chinese nation.
However, the appeal of a shared Chinese identity has waned considerably in Taiwan as Xi ramps up military, economic and diplomatic pressure on its democratic island neighbor.
Xi’s approach has led to a strong backlash in Taiwan, where many view China’s actions as a threat to their hard-won democracy and sovereignty. Taiwanese have increasingly expressed their desire to maintain the “status quo,” with some even advocating for formal independence from China.
In response to China’s growing assertiveness, the US has strengthened its support for Taiwan, including approving significant arms sales and increasing high-level exchanges. Former US House of Representatives speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit during the 30th anniversary of the “1992 consensus” serves as a prime example. Japan and other countries in the region have also expressed concern about the escalating tensions in the Taiwan Strait.
The resolution of the Taiwan issue remains uncertain. While Beijing continues to emphasize “one country, two systems” as a model for Taiwan’s unification with China, the people of Taiwan remain skeptical, pointing to the erosion of freedoms in Hong Kong under a similar framework.
Especially after the events of 2019, Taiwanese seem increasingly fearful of becoming the next Hong Kong.
China has always been willing to present a moderate, open and inclusive image internationally, rather than that of a hegemonic country or a dictatorship. Therefore, it is unlikely that a situation similar to the Ukraine-Russia conflict will occur in the short term regarding the Taiwan issue.
Although China maintains a firm stance on the Taiwan issue, it has always sought a peaceful unification solution.
In recent years, with the gradual strengthening of an independent consciousness in Taiwan, the distance between Taiwan and China has been growing. The DPP’s pro-independence policy has also become one of the main internal obstacles to unification.
Externally, Western countries, led by the US, have been taking an increasingly hardline stance against China and support for Taiwan has been growing. This external pressure has intensified the complexity and sensitivity of the Taiwan issue.
As the transfer of power in Taiwan’s leadership approaches, Beijing is bound to pay attention to the situation and take corresponding actions. For the Chinese government, the unification of Taiwan is a core interest, so it will closely monitor changes in Taiwan’s leadership and might adopt a tougher stance, especially when Taiwan shows more independence tendencies.
Xi proposed the Belt and Road Initiative shortly after taking office in 2013. According to China’s explanation, it aims to enhance infrastructure development and connectivity across Asia, Africa and Europe through the construction of roads, railways, ports and other facilities.
However, some Western countries and opponents see this as a further manifestation of China’s expanding ambitions. China is trying to spread debt and influence around the world, they say.
More than a decade later, Xi has a firm grasp on power. Many experts believe that his ambitions will not allow him to stop at the Taiwan issue or that he will be content with the “status quo.” After all, this is a historical legacy issue involving national sovereignty, and no Chinese leader wants to leave it unresolved.
Although the international community generally believes that China cannot afford the consequences of war, Beijing has not abandoned the possibility of the use of force in the Taiwan issue.
It is believed that Xi is committed to resolving the Taiwan issue before he steps down.
Although no one knows when that will be, it is believed that he aims to add another great achievement to his legacy.
In Taiwan’s political environment, the rule of the DPP is often associated with a more assertive policy toward China.
Therefore, Beijing might remain vigilant toward the upcoming leadership transition and take measures to address potential challenges. This might include enhancing military deployments toward Taiwan, increasing diplomatic pressure on Taiwan and using economic means to limit Taiwan’s international space.
However, Beijing also needs to consider its own interests and image. Excessive pressure and hostile actions could damage China’s image in the international community, triggering more opposition and confrontation.
Therefore, Beijing might exercise restraint in its actions and seek to resolve the Taiwan issue through dialogue and cooperation, avoiding further deterioration of the situation.
The Taiwan issue is a complex and sensitive matter that not only affects the people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait, but also has broader implications for regional stability and global geopolitics.
The resolution of this long-standing issue will require careful navigation and diplomacy from all parties involved.
Li Zhekai is a research assistant at the Department of Public and International Affairs, City University of Hong Kong.
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