Last year, then-Japanese Minister of Defense Yasukazu Hamada in an annual defense report said: “China is rapidly enhancing its military capability qualitatively and quantitatively, including nuclear and missile forces, while continuing and amplifying its unilateral changes to the status quo by force and such attempts in the East China Sea and the South China Sea.”
This assessment of the increasing threat from China lays the groundwork for Japan’s decision to significantly bolster its military strength, including the addition of aircraft carriers, and to expand its defense cooperation with other nations.
Japan is expanding its military at a pace not seen since the end of the World War II. Moreover, it is strengthening its defense ties with the US and fostering increased defense cooperation with a newfound ally: the Philippines, which holds significant implications for Taiwan’s defense.
Japan and the US share a longstanding history of defense cooperation, governed by the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security between the United States of America and Japan, also known as “US-Japan Security Treaty,” originally signed in 1951 and revised in 1960.
Article 5 of the treaty stipulates that if Japan’s territory or territories under its administration face an armed attack, the US would intervene to restore peace and security in line with its constitutional provisions and processes.
Washington and Manila share a similar treaty, the Mutual Defense Treaty, initially signed in 1951 and updated last year.
Washington, Tokyo and Manila are in talks regarding a trilateral defense agreement. On April 11, the three countries convened for the inaugural US-Japan-Philippines trilateral summit. At the outset of the summit, US President Joe Biden said: “The United States’ defense commitments to Japan and to the Philippines are ironclad.”
The summit marked the culmination of a series of tripartite defense and security meetings, which began in June last year with a gathering of the national security advisers of the three countries in Tokyo. Subsequently, the foreign ministers held discussions in July and September, covering economic security, maritime security and defense. In September last year, the three leaders — Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr and US Vice President Kamala Harris — convened to delineate the scope of the new cooperation. Finally, a decision was reached earlier this month to expand the trilateral engagements.
All three countries, along with Australia, share concerns over heightened Chinese aggression in the South China Sea, including repeated attacks on Philippine civilian vessels. In response, these allied nations carried out their inaugural four-way naval exercise within the Philippine exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea.
According to a “joint vision statement” crafted by the leaders during the April 11 summit, the US and Japan have committed to assisting the Philippines in bolstering its coast guard capabilities. In line with this objective, Japan has supplied the Philippines with 12 coast guard vessels and intends to provide an additional five.
Throughout this year, members of the Philippine and Japan coast guards are to join a US Coast Guard vessel for a patrol in the Indo-Pacific region. Additionally, there are arrangements in place to conduct an at-sea trilateral exercise involving the coast guards of the three nations, aimed at enhancing interoperability and promoting maritime security. Looking ahead, a trilateral maritime dialogue would be established to streamline coordination and formulate collective responses to maritime threats.
In terms of defense, the trilateral coalition is preparing for joint naval training and exercises, which include conducting maritime training exercises in the waters surrounding Japan. Additionally, Tokyo has committed to assisting the Philippines in its defense modernization efforts through the newly established Official Security Assistance cooperation framework.
The trilateral alliance would enhance regional defense capabilities, collaborating with Australia and South Korea, acknowledging “the significance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait as a fundamental component of global security and prosperity.”
While the trilateral alliance has not explicitly stated that it would defend Taiwan, the Japan Times said: “The Philippines’ proximity to both Taiwan and crucial sea lanes in the resource-rich South China Sea renders it an appealing staging area for the US and its allies, potentially augmenting their capacity to address regional challenges.”
In 2021, former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe said that an attack on Taiwan would prompt an emergency in Japan.
Although he did not explicitly state that Japan would come to Taiwan’s defense, his statement implied a potential aid response from Japan. Since then, subsequent statements by Japanese leaders have suggested otherwise, indicating Japan’s reluctance to intervene. However, any Chinese invasion of Taiwan would likely encroach upon Japanese territory, sea or airspace, inevitably provoking a response from Japan and the US.
With Japan and the Philippines now collaborating on defense, the geographic area Japan feels obliged to defend is expanding, drawing closer to Taiwan. Under the expanded defense agreement between Washington and Manila, the US is currently constructing a port on Luzon, in close proximity to Taiwan.
Beijing’s reaction was predictably negative. The People’s Republic of China released statements opposing the US’ presence in the Philippines. When Washington and Manila announced their first joint naval drills outside of Philippine territorial waters, Beijing voiced objections. Additionally, China has condemned the formation of the tripartite alliance.
The question of whether the three partners would engage in military action for Taiwan remains uncertain. However, the trilateral defense cooperation has stirred anger in Beijing, hinting that Beijing might perceive a collective defense commitment from the three nations.
Furthermore, expanding the number of partners and allies and increasing patrols and joint exercises in the area would serve as a deterrent. On one hand, it demonstrates a show of force; on the other hand, the presence of more vessels and navies from multiple countries complicates Beijing’s strategic planning and raises the risk of inadvertently sparking a global conflict.
Antonio Graceffo, a China economic analyst who holds a China MBA from Shanghai Jiao Tong University, studies national defense at the American Military University in West Virginia.
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