Sun, Mar 24, 2024 page9

• US should focus on the benefits of immigration

  • By Nancy Qian
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  It is becoming increasingly apparent that immigration is going to be a major issue for voters in this year’s US presidential election. Since US President Joe Biden took office in 2021, more than 6.2 million people who did not have permission to enter the US have attempted to cross the border from Mexico, and more than 2 million have been allowed to remain while they await an immigration hearing.

  This marked increase from previous years has become a major source of controversy. While Biden’s critics claim — dubiously — that immigrants are driving up crime rates and taking Americans’ jobs, some Democrats are doubling down on calls to decriminalize illegal border crossings altogether.

  The first group accuses the second of undermining national security, while advocates of decriminalization accuse immigration hardliners of racism and xenophobia.

  With Americans arguably more divided than at any time since the Civil War, US politicians are peddling simplistic rhetoric about an immensely complex issue to stoke fear and anger, deepening the country’s political polarization.

  However, there is good news for the US public: The truth about immigration is far less frightening than what some politicians and media figures want them to believe. For starters, immigrants are much less likely to commit crime than US citizens. Nationwide, illegal immigrants tend to be incarcerated at a much lower rate than native-born Americans.

  For example, in Texas in 2018, illegal immigrants were 45 percent less likely to be convicted of a crime than native-born Americans, and the crime and incarceration rates for legal immigrants are even lower.

  Republicans often point to a 2021 US Department of Justice report showing that federal arrests of non-US citizens increased 234 percent between 1998 and 2018, while those of US citizens rose only 10 percent.

  However, that increase was driven entirely by arrests for immigration-related offenses. If those were removed, arrest rates of non-citizens increased only 5.1 percent. In other words, when it comes to crimes that Americans can also be arrested for — such as theft or assault — the increase was lower for immigrants than it was for citizens.

  Yet the other side of the debate also deserves some criticism. There is nothing necessarily xenophobic or bigoted about wanting to reinforce border security. Every country has a legitimate interest in controlling who enters its territory, just as every family has a right to decide who may enter their home. A person can open their arms to their neighbors without removing the locks from their doors. This is common sense.

  Immigration need not be a partisan issue. During former US president Barack Obama’s tenure (when Biden was vice president), the US deported more than 5.3 million people, or about 2.65 million per term, which is more than the 2 million deported during former US president Donald Trump’s one term.

  The economic relationship between immigrants and natives is also not as “zero-sum” as many assume. Although immigrants do compete with some Americans for jobs, the benefits they bring far outweigh the harms.

  One such benefit is tamer inflation. With about three job openings for every two job seekers, the US urgently needs more immigrant labor. Industries such as construction, agriculture and hospitality consistently rely on immigrants. When these jobs go unfilled, restaurants and other small businesses serve fewer people, and fewer homes are built. These outcomes translate into higher prices for Americans and lower US competitiveness compared with other economies such as China.

  Economists typically find that immigration expands overall opportunities, raises wages and lowers prices. After all, if a factory in the US were unable to find workers at globally competitive wages, it would go out of business or move to a location where labor is cheaper — such as Mexico or China.

  Low-wage immigrant labor would not only help to keep the factory in the US, it would also mean that there would be more workers paying for housing, food, healthcare and consumer goods, thus creating more jobs and raising wages for other US workers.

  For demographic reasons, the US’ need for immigrant labor can only increase over time. In 2008, the US fertility rate dropped below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman of child-bearing age, and it has been falling steadily over the past decade, reaching 1.7 in 2021. Fewer births mean fewer workers. An ever-smaller working population would have to support a larger retired population.

  One concern is that low fertility leads to economic stagnation. Japan’s fertility rate dropped below replacement level in the 1970s, and its GDP and average income stopped growing by the mid-1990s — not least because it remained wholly opposed to immigration. In China, now the world’s second-largest economy, low fertility has become one of the biggest challenges for long-term growth.

  The US has long been an exception precisely because its openness to immigrants has allowed it to keep growing robustly despite falling fertility. A steady stream of mostly healthy, young, eager workers from abroad has been key to maintaining economic dynamism. When managed properly, immigration benefits immigrants and native-born citizens alike.

  However, proper management calls for a thoughtful, evidence-based discussion, not hysterics. When cooler heads prevail, it is possible to maximize the benefits of immigration while still maintaining border security and supporting workers in sectors that immigrants may enter.

  If US politicians were serious about serving the public’s interests, they would abandon the overheated rhetoric and start doing their jobs.

  Nancy Qian, a professor of economics at Northwestern University, is codirector of the university’s Global Poverty Research Lab and founding director of China Econ Lab.

  Copyright: Project Syndicate
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