Following last month’s presidential election, and influenced by China’s internal problems, the prospects for cross-strait relations have become sensitive and fragile. Managing regional stability depends on the joint efforts of Taiwan and China. However, in the space of just a few days, the White House and the US Department of State have called for restraint. Even though Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) appears to want to ease US-China relations, the strength of his governance and control within China must be carefully observed.
On Feb. 14, a boat with no visible registration number and no registration documents on board crossed the demarcation line to catch fish in waters off Kinmen. The incident ended with the boat’s four Chinese crew members falling into the sea as they fled the coast guard. Two of them drowned. The truth about this incident is gradually coming to light.
First, this kind of incident is part of the Coast Guard Administration’s routine enforcement operations. In the past three years, the coast guard has expelled Chinese fishing vessels that crossed the demarcation line on more than 4,000 occasions. In 12 of those incidents, the Chinese vessels refused to comply with inspections or collided with other boats while being chased. Such cases are not only commonplace, but also well-known to Chinese law enforcement, who have all along been trying to prevent them.
The deaths of two people in this month’s incident were unfortunate, but they were also accidental. The Chinese speedboat that intruded illegally into Kinmen’s waters had a larger hull, at 11.6m meters long, than the coast guard vessel that pursued it, at 9.6m long. This makes it unlikely that the coast guard ship would deliberately or maliciously collide with the fishing boat.
Second, China’s Taiwan Affairs Office has made a series of statements about the incident, which has rarely, if ever, happened before. Its statements appear to be aimed at escalating a political confrontation, especially when it said that fishery zones in the Taiwan Strait have never been off-limits or restricted.
It also expressed firm support for the China Coast Guard’s “regular law enforcement and inspection operations.”
These remarks are hostile and provocative. Anyone can see that this is a “gray-zone conflict” tactic, in which China is trying its utmost to take advantage of the situation.
Third, China Coast Guard vessels have recently been routinely appearing close to the edge of restricted waters, to intensify their “regular patrols and inspections,” while trying to exercise some measure of “restraint.”
However, on Monday last week, a new kind of situation arose when the China Coast Guard boarded and inspected a tour boat from Kinmen County. This act was not in line with the international practice and caused unnecessary fear among the passengers. It was obviously another form of escalation.
As well as contradicting China’s stated “united front” goal of “pinning hopes” on ordinary Taiwanese, such a move could easily spark an armed clash, and make it difficult for Washington to remain silent. It was not a clever move in terms of shaping discourse and legitimacy.
Did the China Coast Guard cross the red line on the orders of their superiors, are its front-line personnel undisciplined or has a discrepancy appeared within China’s chain of command? Was it Xi’s decision? What will China do next? The answers are unclear.
The authorities in Beijing are facing difficult dilemmas on many fronts. Following repeated communications between US and Chinese diplomatic personnel, there is soon likely to be another telephone call between Xi and US President Joe Biden. In such an atmosphere, Taipei is seeking not to cause any more trouble.
The Ministry of National Defense is on alert, but has not intervened, while the Ocean Affairs Council has taken a soft approach by instructing the Coast Guard Administration to deal with the situation. Everything is being kept under control to avoid any kind of miscalculation, but China is not following suit.
Some in China talk of a war of sovereignty, while others talk of a war of law. Undoubtedly, all such talk is aimed at tearing up tacit understandings between the two sides of the Strait and undermining the “status quo.” It would be fair to say that the Chinese side is “playing with fire.”
Such behavior will not put more cards in China’s hand in its relationship with the US. It can only play into the hands of hawks in Washington as the US presidential election approaches. What will happen next? All we can do is wait and see.
Tzou Jiing-wen is editor-in-chief of the Liberty Times (the Taipei Times’ sister newspaper).
Translated by Julian Clegg
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