As Taiwanese return to work and regular routines following the Lunar New Year break, the hope is for a new start.
It is good to be positive, but wise to be aware of dangers ahead.
With headlines including phrases such as an “age of conflict,” an “era of insecurity” and “the decade of living dangerously,” as well as dire warnings from a historian of lessons from the Cold War being neglected and of stumbling into a “dangerous moment in world history” and Beijing’s preparations for a protracted war in the Indo-Pacific region, a survey of recent reports, forums and interviews might temper positivity.
First, the good news. In the Economist Intelligence Unit’s (EIU) Democracy Index 2023 report, Taiwan ranked No. 10 in the world and second in Asia and Australasia, where it was second only to New Zealand. Taiwan’s democracy was down slightly compared with the previous three years, but is still on an upward trajectory since the first report in 2006. It ranked higher than Japan and South Korea in Asia, and well above the US, which has been labeled a “flawed democracy” since 2016.
However, the EIU report is subtitled Age of Conflict, while the International Institute for Strategic Studies’ Military Balance 2024 report warns of an “era of insecurity,” citing the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Hamas-Israel war in Gaza, coups in Niger and Gabon, Azerbaijan retaking the Nagorno-Karabakh region and China’s belligerence over Taiwan and the South China Sea.
An analyst in the Military Balance report said that Beijing has drawn lessons from the Ukraine war, developing weapons and capabilities, and laying pre-emptive legal foundations that suggest it is preparing for a “protracted” conflict in the Indo-Pacific region. Its actions are driving massive military spending increases by Japan and South Korea, which are hoping to deter China.
Historian Niall Ferguson in an interview on Wednesday last week with former Australian deputy prime minister John Anderson predicted that “on the current trajectory” of the war in Europe, Ukraine would lose and if the US also fails to defend Israel from a multifront assault in the Middle East orchestrated by Iran and its proxies, it would lose any pretense of a credible deterrence. If this happens, what would stop Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) from attempting to take Taiwan by force, Ferguson asked.
Taking Taiwan by force is something that Xi would want to avoid, former Chinese ambassador to the US Cui Tiankai (崔天凱) told the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Asia Spotlight 2024 conference in Washington on Jan. 25.
Cui was talking with speakers from Singapore, Indonesia, Japan and India, including Indian security expert C. Raja Mohan, who said that India-China ties would not improve until the tensions at the border were addressed, but that the India-China relationship has never been as bad as it is today, with “very limited engagement,” a far cry from the days of the “good neighbor policy” under then-Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping (鄧小平).
Cui assured his fellow participants that China would eventually annex Taiwan, but said that it would not “fall into the trap” of getting involved in a “proxy war” of another nation that was supplying weapons to Taiwan, a clear reference to the US.
Cui said he was talking in a “personal capacity” as a retired diplomat. That is arguable. He was in line with Beijing’s official messaging.
The conference was titled “The Decade of Living Dangerously.” It is not a positive title, but few would argue with the assessment.
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