Russia this year will likely leverage its advantage in ammunition stockpiles and could occupy more Ukrainian territory if crucial aid is not delivered to Kyiv, an annual report by the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service says.
The Kremlin has about three to four times more artillery than Ukrainian forces after boosting its ammunition production to as many as 4 million units last year, up from 600,000 rounds in 2022, the report said. That gap would widen, since it is “almost certain” that Western deliveries would not keep pace with Russia’s output.
As aid flows to Ukraine are held up by political infighting, primarily in the US, where about US$60 billion in assistance has stalled in the US Congress, Moscow’s ultimate aim is to press for a better negotiating position, the report said.
After Russian President Vladimir Putin’s plans for a “blitzkrieg” assault failed in 2022, he is now relying on attrition to gain the advantage, it said.
“If Western aid diminishes significantly in the coming years, Russia will be more likely to gradually occupy large Ukrainian territories with a massive, unskilled force, imposing unfavorable peace terms on Ukraine,” the Estonian agency said.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Monday highlighted the importance of keeping ammunition and other materiel flowing to Ukraine, and urged European nations to do more to support the government in Kyiv.
“We know that several thousand artillery shells are currently being fired at the front in eastern and southern Ukraine every day,” Scholz said at a groundbreaking ceremony for a Rheinmetall AG ammunition facility in western Germany.
Although US and EU sanctions against Moscow have been effective, especially forcing Moscow’s isolation from global financial markets, Russia’s economy is nevertheless experiencing a war-fueled boom, the report said.
Within Russia, the Kremlin’s hold on power could be vulnerable to social tensions arising from future economic hardship and a new military draft, but Russia last year overcame earlier recruitment difficulties, signing up about 300,000 new troops on a volunteer basis thanks to rising salaries, the report said.
Long fearful that Russia might also have future plans to bring the Baltics back under its grip, the Estonian intelligence agency said “the likelihood of a direct military attack against Estonia remains low in the coming year.”
However, it said that Russia could double land and airborne forces near the NATO member’s border in the years ahead.
“The Kremlin is probably anticipating a possible conflict with NATO within the next decade,” the report said, echoing the concerns of a growing list of European officials.
Estonia has become a particular target for the Kremlin. Russia placed Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas on its criminal wanted list, state news service Tass reported, citing the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs’ database.
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