Vice President William Lai’s (賴清德) victory in the presidential election was a rejection of China’s pressure and interference and a reaffirmation of Taiwan’s sovereignty and democracy.
It also challenges China’s expansionist ambitions in the South and East China seas, where Beijing has asserted its territorial claims and maritime rights, often at the expense of its neighbors.
Taiwan, which controls several islands and reefs in the disputed waters, is strengthening ties with the US and other like-minded countries, such as Japan and Australia, to counter China’s aggression and influence.
China’s first response to Lai’s victory was to poach the allegiance of Nauru, a Pacific island nation that switched its diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China on Monday. This was a symbolic gesture to demonstrate China’s global sway and to isolate Taiwan diplomatically. Taiwan at present has formal relations with only 12 nations, mostly in Africa, Latin America and the Pacific.
However, China also signaled a shift in its approach to Taiwan, emphasizing peaceful unification rather than a military solution. This reflects China’s domestic constraints, such as slowing economic growth, rising social unrest and COVID-19 pandemic impacts. Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) might not want to risk a confrontation with Taiwan and the US, which has pledged to support Taiwan’s security and defense under the Taiwan Relations Act and the “six assurances.”
China is likely to continue coercing Taiwan through actions such as military exercises and “gray zone” tactics near the Taiwan Strait, and imposing sanctions and trade barriers on non-essential Taiwanese goods.
However, China would also avoid crossing the red line that both Taipei and Washington respect — no unilateral changes to the “status quo.”
This means China would not militarily annex Taiwan, nor would Taiwan declare formal independence. Both countries would maintain a delicate balance in their cross-strait relations.
Khedroob Thondup is a former member of the Tibetan parliament in exile.
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