With Indian general elections approaching, and Taiwan wrapping up its own elections a few days ago, it is clear that the Asian geopolitical theater is set to witness radical developments and changes amid the ongoing power struggle in the international political arena. India and Taiwan share common ground; both being frequent targets of Chinese aggression. As the geopolitical landscape evolves and securitization of the region intensifies, India is vigilantly observing developments in the Taiwan Strait as it recognizes the potential challenges that it is set to face in its own democratic elections. Thus, it is prudent to carefully examine the strategies that were employed by China to influence the elections in Taiwan.
Taiwan holds a focal position in the great-power competition between China and the US for supremacy in Asia. There is no doubt that India is set to engage with the new Taiwanese government, given the strategic importance that New Delhi places on fostering relations with Taiwan, and the key role the nation plays in maintaining peace and stability in the region.
However, it becomes imperative for India to adopt a judicious approach toward the current geopolitical developments. It needs to seize the opportunity to gather valuable insights from the aftermath of Saturday’s elections. New Delhi’s focus extends beyond the immediate political shifts in Taiwan and delves into the nuanced realm of Chinese aggression and its influence tactics, focusing specifically on the degree of their success.
China’s alleged use of military threats, diplomatic pressure, fake news and financial inducements to sway Taiwan’s elections toward candidates favoring unification is a cause for concern. Minister of Foreign Affairs Joseph Wu (吳釗燮) underscored China’s global ambitions, using Taiwan as a “testing ground” to shape election results, a sentiment resonating in New Delhi as India begins its preparations for the general elections.
With Indian lower parliament Lok Sabha elections approaching, New Delhi remains cautious of the growing cooperation between China and Pakistan in the Indian Ocean.
China framed Saturday’s elections as a choice between war and peace, urging Taiwanese to oppose “independence-minded” parties and uphold the “1992 consensus.” The cross-strait relations debate in the election involved the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) ambition for independence, while the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) sought closer economic ties with China. With the DPP’s candidate, Vice President William Lai (賴清德), winning the presidential election, fear looms, as the re-election of a party leaning toward Taiwanese independence could lead to Chinese attempts to militarily control Taiwan.
Analysts believe that Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) mention of “local wars” at the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party indicates consequences for Asian nations, including India and Taiwan.
However, beyond military tactics, China’s interest in shaping governments friendly to its policies through election manipulation poses a broader concern.
Fake news linked to the elections and traced to China adds to the pressure, with concerns raised by the Taiwan FactCheck Center about misleading information on social media. The sophisticated efforts by Beijing to influence Taiwan’s elections could serve as a template for interference in other elections, like that of India, by using artificial intelligence, local allies and misinformation.
For India, the New Southbound Policy under President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) ushered a new era for India-Taiwan relations, although India does not officially recognize Taiwan. The policy seeks to promote exchanges and cooperation between Taiwan and western India in technology, education and culture. Recognizing India’s growing potential, semiconductor businesses are also considering investments, opening up a prospective path for technological collaboration between Taiwan and India.
According to Indian analysts, a DPP victory holds greater appeal for New Delhi, as they foresee further cooperation and collaborative initiatives between the two sides, compared with the scenario in which the KMT had assumed power, particularly amid existing tensions with China.
However, despite the complexities surrounding the election outcome, one thing would not have changed: India’s commitment to engaging with the new Taiwanese government.
Elections in Taiwan hold immense significance in shaping the power dynamics in Asia. Thus, it is hardly surprising that the elections in this little, self-governed nation drew momentous global attention. As for India, New Delhi closely monitored the results, recognizing the potential influence on regional alliances, security and the larger international political system, and will be learning lessons for its own mammoth elections to come.
Esha Banerji is serving as an EU-India Young Leaders Exchange fellow and is associated with a premier think tank in India, specializing in East Asia and Indo-Pacific Security.
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