The US’ recent decision to approve the sale of US$300 million of defense equipment to Taiwan once again underlined a strong US-Taiwan relationship and Washington’s commitment to helping Taipei protect itself. This development also assumes an added significance against the backdrop of Taiwan’s elections on Saturday.
Undoubtedly, the presidential and legislative elections will not only play a major role in determining Taiwan’s future, they will also have a profound impact on the US-dominated regional order in Asia.
Since the end of the Cold War, Taiwan has been the jewel in the US’ unchallenged regional dominance. China’s rise as a major economic and military power, the turbulent economic condition of the US after the financial crisis of 2007 and 2008, Washington’s military engagement in the Middle East, Europe and other issues have emboldened Beijing to challenge US leadership in Asia, including by assertive posturing toward Taipei.
Former US president Donald Trump crystallized his predecessors’ policy toward Taiwan by taking several major initiatives, including the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2018, which calls for strengthening the defense partnership between the US and Taiwan. During the first three years of the administration of US President Joe Biden, Washington has continued to deepen ties with Taiwan. While this was evident from the visit by then-US House of Representatives speaker Nancy Pelosi, Biden’s statement that the US would militarily protect Taiwan if China were to attack was seen as a major shift in US policy. Washington’s Taiwan Policy Act passed in 2022 talks about about ensuring regional stability and deterring further People’s Republic of China (PRC) aggression against Taiwan. It also threatens severe sanctions against the PRC for hostile actions against Taiwan. The new act has focused on deepening Taiwan’s defense capabilities, with the US having committed to providing about US$4.5 billion in security assistance over the following four years and designating Taiwan as a “major non-NATO ally.”
The US has all the more reason to see that the new government continues to cement ties with Washington. The Biden administration is apprehensive about the Chinese communist regime attempting to influence Taiwan’s elections to ensure the election of a pro-China candidate. This would have two immediate consequences: First, Taiwan’s fight for its sovereignty would face a rough time; second, Taiwan’s democratic institutions would also come under unprecedented Chinese pressure. Therefore, one of the major US interests is to ensure free and fair elections in Taiwan. This would not only enable Taiwanese to freely exercise their franchise to choose their president and legislative representatives, it would effectively be a big blow to China’s promotion of autocracy over democracy. Free and fair elections in Taiwan would further boost the US’ image as a custodian of democracy and human rights and a free society.
Second, US wants to see the installation of a government in Taipei that can continue the legacy of President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) in improving ties between the two countries. The election of an unfriendly administration would not only drive Taiwan from the US, but it would have a negative impact on the US’ reputation as global leader. The US’ stature as sole superpower would largely remain intact while Taiwan flourishes as an independent country. This concern looms large among strategists, politicians and diplomats in Washington. US Representative Michael McCaul, the chairperson of the US House Foreign Affairs Committee, called the presidential candidate of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Beijing’s “installed puppet candidate.”
Third, China’s dominance over Taiwan would also impact the US ties with its allies. Neutral states might tilt toward China, making a balance of power against the US. Additionally, US-led regional groupings could lose their shine. After all, one major inherent interest of the US behind forming these groupings is to protect Taiwan from Chinese threats. Fourth, there is also a concern that China would intensify its assertive posturing toward its neighboring countries.
Fifth, due to Beijing’s extensive economic coercion against Taipei, another priority for the US is Taiwan’s economic security. In addition to fines on Taiwanese companies operating in China that support Taiwanese independence, China has indicated its larger plan to undermine Taiwan’s economic security.
With a KMT government in power, Beijing could further try to reduce Taiwan’s presence in the global supply chain. As China is dependent on Taiwan for more than 70 percent of its chip requirements, a pro-China government in Taiwan would squarely address Beijing’s interest. A strong Taiwanese economy is equally important for Washington. Taiwan’s leadership in semiconductor manufacturing makes it crucial for the US and other countries to ensure that Taiwan does not fall under Beijing’s control.
The larger concern is how China’s behavior toward Taiwan would change should the Democratic Progressive Party’s presidential candidate, Vice President William Lai (賴清德), win. Lai continues to lead his opponents in opinion polls. Would the US give up its policy of strategic ambiguity if China takes military action?
Saturday’s election is an inflection point for Taiwan-US relations.
Sumit Kumar is an assistant professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Delhi, India.
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