An unprecedented 60 countries are holding national elections this year. British newspaper the Observer last month called 2024 “democracy’s super bowl,” as the outcomes of those polls would determine whether democratic nations, including the US and the UK, or authoritarian powers, such as Russia and Iran, would control and direct the 21st century. Taiwan’s legislative and presidential elections on Saturday are to be among the world’s most hotly contested and of crucial international importance, especially to the interests of Washington and Beijing.
The outcome in Taiwan would “provide a valuable demonstration of how highly democracy is still valued — when a determined people are allowed a real choice amid fierce external pressures,” the Observer said, referring to China’s attempts to interfere in the elections.
Since its first direct presidential election in 1996, Taiwan has held seven presidential elections, and China has tried to meddle in all of them, aiming to annex its neighbor as part of its expansionist ambitions and Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) so-called “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.” In 1996, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army fired missiles into waters within 46km to 65km of Taiwan, in an incident known as the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis. In 2000, China released “The One China Principle and Taiwan Question” white paper in an attempt to influence the elections, threatening to use military force to oppose any attempt to “separate” Taiwan from China.
Aside from domestic issues such as the economy and housing affordability, China’s threats are ever-present and a crucial factor in the elections. Fortunately for Taiwan, but to China’s chagrin, Taiwanese have worked against Beijing’s desires, facilitating the nation’s transition from an authoritarian government to a liberal democracy. Taiwan is ranked as the top democracy in Asia, and leads in global assessments such as the Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index and the Human Freedom Index.
This year, Taiwan again faces China’s electoral interference attempts, which include a record-high number of military intrusions, economic sanctions, banning Chinese students and tourists from visiting Taiwan, spreading disinformation to stigmatize the government, suppressing Taiwan’s participation in international organizations to diplomatically isolate the nation, and offering incentives to Taiwanese to convince them to vote for pro-China candidates.
The opposition Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and its presidential candidate, New Taipei City Mayor Hou You-yi (侯友宜), have framed the elections as a choice between “war and peace,” while linking the so-called “1992 consensus” with Beijing’s “one China” principle, echoing China’s cognitive warfare propaganda. However, the poll has also been marked as a choice between democracy and autocracy. The Democratic Progressive Party and its presidential candidate, Vice President William Lai (賴清德), say this election is a choice between defending Taiwan’s democratic autonomy and endorsing a “red proxy” in support of Chinese authoritarianism.
Although Beijing is trying to sway Taiwanese voters, a growing number of reports and analyses show that China is unlikely to consider any major military actions against Taiwan soon, as it grapples with its own domestic economic challenges and political turmoil. China just expelled nine top military officers, including its defense minister. Also, the international community has made clear its support for peace in the Taiwan Strait, and opposition to war.
On Saturday, Taiwanese should vote to show the country’s strong will for self-determination, and make Taiwan’s election a model for the international community to safeguard democracy.
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