The Indonesian government should be deeply concerned about China’s recent military exercises near Taiwan, as they are purportedly intended to send a “warning” to the elected government of Taiwan led by President William Lai (賴清德).
The action is particularly alarming because Taiwan is home to approximately 350,000 Indonesian workers, who are employed in the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors.
Data from the Taipei Economic and Trade Office in Surabaya show that there are 30,000 Indonesians residing in Taiwan who have married Taiwanese, while 20,000 Indonesians are studying in Taiwan.
The data highlight the importance that Indonesia engages in efforts to prevent zero-sum game scenarios in the Taiwan Strait, which would have severe adverse consequences for Indonesia.
Indonesia, recognized as a diplomatic intermediary in global affairs, has the capability to engage in mediating this potential situation of conflicting interests. Indonesia possesses an abundance of capital due to its highly cordial connections with the two parties.
Indonesia’s commitment to preserving strong relations with China is accompanied by a deep respect for its “one China” policy. Nevertheless, Indonesia is highly proficient in implementing its open and assertive foreign policy. It has an Indonesian Trade and Economic Office in Taipei, which can be considered a de facto Indonesian embassy.
An effective approach for Indonesia to adhere to the “one China” policy is to engage in dialogue, albeit with the need for assertive persuasion.
Nevertheless, this pursuit remains viable due to the explicit declaration made by Lai during his inauguration speech. He affirmed that Taiwan would adhere to the “status quo” in the Taiwan Strait, indicating that it would persist with its “peaceful” strategy.
Lai underscored the significance of this approach by emphasizing that “peace is invaluable and warfare yields no victor.”
Lai’s statement can serve as a valuable resource for Indonesia in urging China to abstain from military aggression, which would undoubtedly have severe consequences for all parties involved, including Indonesia. The potential losses resulting from a military annexation are unimaginable.
Indonesia can initiate discourse by highlighting the amicable rapport between Indonesia and China thus far, substantiated by successful collaborations across several domains.
China has emerged as Indonesia’s primary trading partner, with trade value estimated to be US$127 billion this year. China will undoubtedly take into account the advice from Indonesia, its closest ally in Southeast Asia, due to the strong emphasis on the positive relationship between the two countries.
Indonesia can propose constructive dialogue to China, particularly by raising the issue at the ASEAN forum. This is especially important because many citizens of ASEAN members, such as the Philippines, Vietnam and Malaysia, also have a presence in Taiwan. By engaging in dialogue, Indonesia’s message would be impactful and China would be motivated to listen.
China, being concerned about its interests in Southeast Asia, would not want its military activities in the Taiwan Strait to disrupt the region. Regarding other aspects, it is desirable that the situation in the Taiwan Strait remains stable and that China’s sincere commitment to maintaining the current state of affairs can also be achieved.
M. Syaprin Zahidi is a senior lecturer in the Department of International Relations at the University of Muhammadiyah Malang in Malang and is a doctoral student at Ghazali Shafie Graduate School of Government at the Universiti Utara Malaysia in Kedah state.
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