On Jan. 13, an estimated 19.5 million eligible voters are to partake in the selection of Taiwan’s next president and 113 members of the Legislative Yuan. The forthcoming elections carry substantial weight, not solely within Taiwan, but also for its potential to delineate the trajectory of cross-strait relations and wield considerable influence over the country’s foreign policy in the ensuing four years.
Bound by a two-term limit, President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) is to exit office, paving the way for her successor. The next president is to assume leadership during a precarious period, characterized by strained relations with China, currently entrenched at their lowest ebb. Whoever emerges victorious would face the daunting challenge of delicately balancing the imperative to stabilize relations with China while upholding the remarkable strides Taiwan has achieved in its foreign policy outreach.
Upon assuming office, Tsai implemented the New Southbound Policy as one of her initial policy directives. Acknowledging the significance of expanding engagement in the region, the New Southbound Policy framework played a pivotal role. Tsai specifically highlighted India as a key priority country within this framework. Subsequently, gradual yet tangible advancements have materialized in relations between Taiwan and India.
Naturally, India is closely observing the elections. Over the past four years, Taiwan-India relations have witnessed unprecedented growth. India has shifted from adhering strictly to China’s red lines to fostering connections with Taiwan.
Taiwan has made significant strides on the global platform. This progress includes carving out a distinct position for Taiwan, advocating for increased international engagement and expanding its global footprint. India’s outreach to Taiwan has been facilitated by Taiwan’s proactive approach through the New Southbound Policy. This initiative led to consistent engagement with India, whereby the latter became a crucial component of Taiwan’s Indo-Pacific policy.
The pressing threat posed by China propelled the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) administration to seek partners within the Indo-Pacific region. The looming threat posed by China extends beyond Taiwan, as several countries have come to recognize China’s growing aggression as a threat to their national interests and territorial sovereignty. This realization has been a compelling factor driving countries to turn their attention toward Taiwan, and India is no exception.
Following the 2020 Galwan clashes between China and India along the Himalayan border, India underwent a reassessment of its China policy. Taiwan, previously perceived as an offshoot of New Delhi’s China policy, began to carve out its distinct position within India’s strategic considerations and economic outlook. Bolstered by their shared challenges with China, Taiwan and India discovered several areas of mutual interest and alignment.
The Taiwan-India Parliamentary Friendship Forum, initially established in 2016, was revitalized in 2020, indicating sustained efforts to bolster bilateral relations. Endeavors to fortify commercial ties have been evident, showcased through a number of initiatives. Examples include the signing of an upgraded investment treaty in 2018, burgeoning bilateral trade surpassing the US$10 billion mark and a consistent rise in Taiwan’s Foreign Direct Investment in India. Over the past few years, India has notably transcended its erstwhile reluctance to openly discuss matters concerning Taiwan, culminating in unprecedented public support for Taiwan within India.
It is crucial to recognize that countries such as India have been receptive to Taiwan due to the latter’s proactive stance, taking the initial steps in fostering these connections. Taiwan’s proactive approach became especially significant amid the concurrent decline in relations with China, which created a strategic window for Taiwan when China was constraining its international presence.
Successive administrations in Taipei have sought to strengthen relations with India. When it was in power, the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) also recognized the significance of ties with India, yet its efforts were sporadic, often overshadowed by the relationship with China. An illustrative instance was during the administration of then-president Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九), when the prospect of a free-trade agreement (FTA) with India was deferred, despite India’s willingness and even commissioning of a feasibility study. The Ministry of Economic Affairs at the time announced: “It is not yet time to conduct official FTA talks with India.”
On Wednesday last week there was a strong sense of deja vu during the televised presidential policy debate when the KMT’s presidential candidate, New Taipei City Mayor Hou You-yi (侯友宜), raised questions about the now-shelved India-Taiwan mobility and migration pact. The potential of this pact to enhance relations between the two countries was apparent. However, Hou’s reservations about the pact and use of it as a weapon against the incumbent evoke concerns about the KMT’s commitment to prioritizing India’s importance if his party were to secure victory. As Taiwan undergoes significant transformation, it is crucial to recognize that India’s significance should transcend mere election rhetoric. This concern gains significance given India’s central role in the Indo-Pacific policies of several countries, coupled with its growing interest in nurturing closer ties with Taiwan.
The response of several countries toward Taiwan hinges significantly on Taiwan’s outreach to China. Therefore, it would be paramount for the incoming president to maintain the momentum achieved on the foreign policy front, especially considering the cautious approach adopted by countries toward Taiwan in the past. Abandoning this progress would represent a missed opportunity and risk eroding the established trust between Taiwan and countries such as Japan, India and Australia. It could potentially convey a perception that, for Taiwan, prioritizing relations with China supersedes any other country, leading to the belief that other relationships hold only temporary significance.
India seeks to uphold and deepen its relationship with Taiwan, emphasizing the strengthening of existing areas of cooperation. Significant momentum has already been achieved, making it imperative for the next president to ensure the continuity and maintenance of Taiwan’s current India policy.
Sana Hashmi is a fellow at the Taiwan-Asia Exchange Foundation and George H.W. Bush Foundation for US-China Relations.
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